Iowa State-Miami Game Spread & O/U Odds, Picks & Prediction

Eddie Griffin

While the other Sweet 16 matchup in the Midwest Region features two major conference champions in #1 seed Kansas and #4 seed Providence, the other matchup features two double-digit seeds from power conferences in #11 seed Iowa State and #10 seed Miami (FL).

Cyclones, Hurricanes Close in on Unlikely Achievements

The Cyclones are one of the best stories of this year’s March Madness field. Last season was a disaster, as Iowa State went 2-22 overall and 0-18 in the Big 12, resulting in coach Steve Prohm’s firing.

Former ISU assistant T.J. Otzelberger was hired from UNLV and has engineered an instant turnaround with a rebuilt roster, with the Cyclones starting 12-0. Despite being unable to sustain that start, Iowa State received its first NCAA Tournament berth since 2019. Behind two stellar defensive performances against #6 seed LSU and #3 seed Wisconsin, the Cyclones are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016.

That was also the last time Miami was in the Sweet 16, and with tournament wins over #7 seed USC and #2 seed Auburn, the Hurricanes have a 25-win season for the first time since that season as well.

The winner of this matchup will move on to duke it out with the Providence-Kansas winner on Sunday for a trip to the Final Four. It will be momentous for either program. This is Miami’s fourth trip to the Sweet 16, but they have yet to reach the Elite Eight, while Iowa State has not been to the Elite Eight since 2000.

Iowa State 2022 NCAA Tournament
Gabe Kalscheur (right) scored 22 points to lead #11 seed Iowa State to an upset of #3 seed Wisconsin in the second round of the 2022 NCAA Tournament.

2022 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Semifinal #2: #11 Iowa State Cyclones vs. #10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes Sweet 16 Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

  • Game Matchup: #11 Iowa State Cyclones (22-12) vs. #10 Miami Hurricanes (25-10)
  • Venue & Location: United Center (Chicago, Illinois)
  • Date: Friday, March 25, 2022
  • Time: 9:59 p.m. ET
  • TV: TBS

Iowa State vs. Miami Sweet 16 Spread and Over/Under Betting Odds (as of Friday, March 25)

  • Spread: Iowa State +3 (-110), Miami -3 (-110)
  • Total: OVER 132 (-110), UNDER 132 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Iowa State +132, Miami -160

There has been some movement with the spread (from Miami -2.5 to Miami -3), the over/under (from O/U 133 to O/U 132), and the moneyline (in Miami’s favor).

Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Is a Defensive Duel in the Forecast for the Cyclones and Hurricanes?

In the second round, both Iowa State and Miami used masterful defensive performances to add Wisconsin and Auburn to the list of March Madness upset victims.

Iowa State vs. Wisconsin in the Second Round

  • Wisconsin’s Field Goal Percentage: 29.8% (14 of 47)
  • Wisconsin’s Three-Point Field Percentage: 9.1% (2 of 22)
  • Turnovers Forced by Iowa State: 17

Wisconsin was the least generous team in college basketball, averaging under nine turnovers a game. But the Badgers committed twice their season average against Iowa State and were held to a season low in points in the Cyclones’ 54-49 win.

That followed a similarly stellar performance in a 59-54 win over LSU in the first round.

Iowa State vs. LSU in the First Round

  • LSU’s Field Goal Percentage: 37.0% (17 of 46)
  • LSU’s Three-Point Field Goal Percentage: 21.1% (4 of 19)
  • Turnovers Forced by Iowa State: 19

Iowa State comes in as one of college basketball’s best defensive teams, which they have shown against some top opposition this season. They held rival Iowa to 53 points, their second-lowest total of the season, limited Kansas to only 62 in a one-point loss in Lawrence and allowed only 47 against Texas Tech in a home win.

The Cyclones are one of the nation’s leaders in defensive efficiency, points allowed per game, turnovers forced per game, and three-point defense, ranking in the top 20 in all four categories.

That defense has been necessary and is the reason why they are here, because their offense has not performed at a similar level, especially recently. In their 12-0 start, the Cyclones scored 70+ points eight times. In the 22 games since, they have scored 70+ only six times.

However, they have advanced in the NCAA Tournament by getting contributions from enough sources in each of their wins. Against LSU, Tyrese Hunter (23) and Izaiah Brockington (19) accounted for 71.2 percent of their points. And against Wisconsin, Gabe Kalscheur, who was a March Madness hero for Minnesota three years ago, led the way with 22 points.

If the Cyclones are to beat Miami, Brockington, the team’s leading scorer at 17.1 PPG, needs to find his form. This season, Brockington is shooting 45.1 percent from the field. But over his past five games, he has made only 22 of 79 (27.9 percent) of his shots, including just 3 of 18 (16.7 percent) from three.

Izaiah Brockington’s Past Five Games

  • vs. Oklahoma State: 13 points (5-17 FG, 0-2 3PT)
  • at Baylor: 11 points (4-13 FG, 1-5 3PT)
  • vs. Texas Tech (Big 12 Tournament): 7 points (3-16 FG, 1-6 3PT)
  • vs. LSU (NCAA Tournament): 19 points (6-16 FG, 1-4 3PT)
  • vs. Wisconsin (NCAA Tournament): 10 points (4-15 FG, 0-2 3PT)

Brockington is also the team’s leading rebounder, averaging 6.8 boards per game, but he has averaged only 3.4 rebounds per game in this five-game stretch.

Simply put, he needs to be at his best for Iowa State to have its best chance to beat Miami. The Hurricanes were outstanding in their 79-61 win over Auburn, as the Tigers shot only 30.4 percent (21 of 69) from the field and 19.2 percent (5 of 26) from three.

The Hurricanes also got the job done offensively, other than perimeter shooting. Four of their five starters scored in double figures against the Tigers, with leading scorers Kameron McGusty and Isaiah Wong scoring 20 and 21, respectively.

For the season, Miami is shooting 34.4 percent from three, but they made just 4 of 29 combined against USC and Auburn. They can win without good perimeter shooting, but if they find their shot against Iowa State, it will likely be a long, disappointing night for the Cyclones.

If Miami can hit the mid 60s, that might be enough to win. Iowa State has scored 36, 68, 41, 59, and 54 points in their last five games. When Miami has allowed 65 or fewer points this season, they are 8-2, with both losses coming against rival Florida State. And when the ‘Canes have scored 65+ points this season, they have won 24 of 28 games.

Iowa State vs. Miami Sweet 16 Prediction & Picks

Miami 67, Iowa State 64 (Miami -2.5 & UNDER 133)

Iowa State has done well to get to this point, thanks to two tremendous defensive performances and a couple of clutch offensive performances by Hunter and Kalscheur.

Can they do the same thing to Miami that they did to Wisconsin? The Hurricanes are averaging only 9.3 turnovers this season, which ranks sixth in the country. If Miami can be less giving than Wisconsin was, it will go a long way to getting past the Cyclones.

Ultimately, it will be hard for Iowa State to win this one if they don’t find get better overall results on the offensive end, most notably from Brockington.

They were able to win without much offense in their first two games, but their run will end here. Look for Miami to get to the magic number points-wise and reach the Elite Eight for the first time in men’s or women’s basketball in school history.

Other Sweet 16 Game Predictions and Picks

East Region

West Region

South Region

Midwest Region

Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade. He joined the ranks of Betting News as a content manager. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade. He joined the ranks of Betting News as a content manager. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.