How do we Make our NFL Picks?
The suggestions on our NFL Picks page are based on the market consensus (the most common pick) from free picks providers across the sports betting industry such as CBS Sports, Sports Betting Dime, Pickswise and more free NFL picks sources.
We pair the market consensus pick with the best available line from an online sportsbook to give you a best bet for the point spread, total and moneyline for every game on the board for every NFL season.
Let’s take a look at an example:
The Dallas Cowboys are Playing the New York Giants.
Four out of five sources Betting News provide are picking the Cowboys to cover the spread and the best line available for that pick is -3.5 (-110) at Sportsbook A.
This example also applies for moneyline and totals markets.
Our individual writers (like myself) will then use the consensus picks in our analysis of each individual game and either side with the pick or go against it based on our own individual analysis.
Looking at consensus picks is a good place to start to find what most experts are seeing in each game but then it is a good idea to read individual game pieces to get a better, more in depth look at the game and the reasons the lines are where they are.
As a fan and a sports bettor, you can then use the information from the consensus picks page and then the predictions page to formulate your own opinion on where you want to place your money.
A good reminder is that no bet is guaranteed and even though all experts agree on one side of a pick, does not necessarily mean that that pick is for sure going to happen.
Use all of the information as a guide. We take pride in giving you accurate, valuable information so you can make the best decisions on where to bet and I always suggest doing as much research as you can before placing a bet.
Betting News Best Bets on our NFL Picks page are subject to change based on how we calculate market consensus. Best Bets are also not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly.
How is the Market Consensus Calculated?
Betting News uses predicted scores advertised by free picks providers to determine the market consensus.
Let’s expand on the above example:
- Source 1 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 27-20 (47)
- Source 2 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 24-20 (44)
- Source 3 is predicting the Giants beat the Cowboys 23-21 (44)
- Source 4 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 28-24 (52)
- Source 5 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 22-18 (42)
The consensus lines for that game are:
- Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5/Giants +3.5
- Total: OVER 44.5/UNDER 44.5
- Moneyline: Cowboys -150/Giants +130
Based on those predictions and consensus lines, we would list Cowboys -3.5 (-110) at Sportsbook A (they’re offering thebest price at the consensus line) as the best bet as four out of five sources have a predicted score that would see the Cowboys cover the spread.
That said, if the point spread were to move to Cowboys -4.5 at participating sportsbooks our suggested pick would change to Giants +4.5 (-105) at Sportsbook B as four out of five would then be predicting that the Giants would cover the spread and Sportsbook B is offering the best price at the consensus line on that pick.
Line movement is a key component to consider when picking which side of a bet you want to be on. So paying attention to where a line opens and where it closes is key to your betting strategy.
Check this page frequently throughout the week to stay up-to-date on line moves and if you see shifts in one direction or another.
If it moves, there is probably a reason. We will break it down for you in the individual game pieces as to reasons why the line moved or should have moved and that will only help you decide which side of the bet you want to be on!
Again, using as many resources as possible to make a good bet is key. So, we are here to give you as many answers as possible. Below are some common questions you might have, but if you have more, get in touch with us on Twitter! We are always here to help!