NFL Picks

Moneyline
Aug 4, 2021
Consensus
Best Line

How do we Make our NFL Picks?

The suggestions on our NFL Picks page are based on the market consensus (the most common pick) from free picks providers across the sports betting industry such as CBS Sports, Sports Betting Dime, Pickswise and more.

We pair the market consensus pick with the best available line from an online sportsbook to give you a best bet for the point spread, total and moneyline for every game on the board from Week 1 to the Super Bowl.

Let’s go through an example:

The Dallas Cowboys are Playing the New York Giants.

Four out of five sources Betting News monitors are picking the Cowboys to cover the spread and the best line available for that pick is -3.5 (-110) at Sportsbook A.

This example also applies for moneyline and totals markets.

Betting News Best Bets on our NFL Picks page are subject to change based on how we calculate market consensus. Best Bets are also not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly.

How is the Market Consensus Calculated?

Betting News uses predicted scores advertised by free picks providers to determine the market consensus.

Let’s expand on the above example:

  • Source 1 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 27-20 (47)
  • Source 2 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 24-20 (44)
  • Source 3 is predicting the Giants beat the Cowboys 23-21 (44)
  • Source 4 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 28-24 (52)
  • Source 5 is predicting the Cowboys beat the Giants 22-18 (42)

The consensus lines for that game are:

  • Point Spread: Cowboys -3.5/Giants +3.5
  • Total: OVER 44.5/UNDER 44.5
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -150/Giants +130

Based on those predictions and consensus lines, we would list Cowboys -3.5 (-110) at Sportsbook A (they’re offering thebest price at the consensus line) as the best bet as four out of five sources have a predicted score that would see the Cowboys cover the spread.

That said, if the consensus point spread were to move to Cowboys -4.5 at participating sportsbooks our suggested pick would change to Giants +4.5 (-105) at Sportsbook B as four out of five would then be predicting that the Giants would cover the spread and Sportsbook B is offering the best price at the consensus line on that pick.