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How Do We Make Our MLB Picks?
The moneyline, totals and runline (point spread) suggestions on our MLB Picks page are based on the market consensus (the most common pick) from free picks providers across the sports betting industry such as Wunderdog, CBS Sports, Sports Betting Dime, Pickswise and more.
We pair the market consensus pick with the best available line from one of our recommended sports betting sites to give you a best bet for the moneyline, total and runline for every game on the board.
Let’s go through an example:
The New York Mets are visiting the Atlanta Braves.
Four out of five sources Betting News monitors are picking the Braves to win and the best price (odds) available for that pick is -140 at Sportsbook A.
This example also applies for over/under (a.k.a. totals) and runline markets.
Three out of five sources are picking the under 8.5, and the best price available for that pick is -115 at Sportsbook A.
Four out of five sources are picking the Braves to cover the -1.5 runline (the point spread in baseball betting), and the best price available for that pick is +150.
Betting News Best Bets on our MLB Picks page are subject to change based on how we calculate market consensus. Best Bets are also not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly.
How Do We Calculate the Market Consensus?
Betting News uses predicted scores advertised by free picks providers to determine the market consensus.
Let’s expand on the above example:
- Source 1 is predicting the Braves beat the Mets 6-2 (8)
- Source 2 is predicting the Braves beat the Mets 9-1 (10)
- Source 3 is predicting the Braves beat the Red Sox 5-2 (7)
- Source 4 is predicting the Braves beat the Red Sox 4-1 (5)
- Source 5 is predicting the Mets to beat the Braves 6-3 (9)
The consensus lines for that game are:
- Moneyline: Mets +120/Braves -140
- Total (Over/Under): OVER 8.5/UNDER 8.5
- Point Spread (Runline): Mets +1.5/Braves -1.5
Based on those predictions and consensus lines, we would list UNDER 8.5 (-115) at Sportsbook A–which is offering the best odds for that bet–as the best bet as three out of five sources are touting a predicted score that would see the total go UNDER.
But if the consensus total were to move to 7.5 due to the action taking place at various sportsbooks, our suggested pick would change to OVER 7.5 (-125) at Sportsbook B, which is offering the best odds on that bet.
That would be because three out of five sources would be predicting that the total would go OVER, assuming they haven’t changed their predicted scores.
Also, in that example, the top ML (moneyline) and RL (runline) picks would remain the same due to the predicted outcomes and totals.
Braves -140 would be the top moneyline pick, along with the Braves to cover the -1.5 runline at +150 odds. For both bets, four out of five sources back those results to occur.
Why Should You Trust Our MLB Consensus Picks?
Our MLB picks come from reputable sources only. As bettors ourselves, we will not promote or recommend any source that we wouldn’t use for our own betting research.
We also frequently use our MLB consensus picks, as well as our NFL, NBA, and NHL consensus picks, in our articles to support the predictions, picks, and betting analysis that we provide.
While we certainly trust our sources and these picks, we do not recommend relying solely on these picks. These picks, as any picks or information you might find on the Internet, are meant to be a guide, not gospel.
It is important to do your own research and not follow anything or anyone blindly, including us.
Also, these picks will not hit 100 percent of the time. Even if 100 percent of sources agree–and we agree as well–results don’t always play out that way.
However, if you use well-sourced picks, other content that you may find, such as the articles that we write on specific games, and, most importantly, your own research, you can navigate the ups and downs of sports betting well.
If you have any questions about our MLB picks, feel free to reach out via Twitter. In addition to our main Twitter (@BN_Content), all of our writers are active on Twitter.
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