MLB Picks

Point Spread
April 11, 2021 10:37 AM

How do we Make our MLB Picks?

The monyline, totals and runline (point spread) suggestions on our MLB Picks page are based on the market consensus (the most common pick) from free picks providers across the sports betting industry such as CBS Sports, Sports Betting Dime, Pickswise and more.

We pair the market consensus pick with the best available line from an online sportsbook to give you a best bet for the moneyline, total and runline for every game on the board.

Let’s go through an example:

The New York Yankees are playing the Boston Red Sox.

Four out of five sources Betting News monitors are picking the Yankees to win and the best price available for that pick is -150 at Sportsbook A.

This example also applies for totals and runline markets.

Betting News Best Bets on our MLB Picks page are subject to change based on how we calculate market consensus. Best Bets are also not financial advice. Please gamble responsibly.

How is the Market Consensus Calculated?

Betting News uses predicted scores advertised by free picks providers to determine the market consensus.

Let’s expand on the above example:

  • Source 1 is predicting the Yankees beat the Red Sox 5-3 (8)
  • Source 2 is predicting the Yankees beat the Red Sox 6-4 (10)
  • Source 3 is predicting the Yankees beat the Red Sox 2-1 (3)
  • Source 4 is predicting the Yankees beat the Red Sox 4-2 (6)
  • Source 5 is predicting the Red Sox to beat the Yankees 5-4 (9)

The consensus lines for that game are:

  • Moneyline: Yankees -150/Red Sox +130
  • Total: OVER 8.5/UNDER 8.5
  • Point Spread (Runline): Yankees -1.5/Red Sox +1.5

Based on those predictions and consensus lines, we would list UNDER 8.5 (-105) at Sportsbook A (they’re offering thebest price at the consensus line) as the best bet as three out of five sources are touting a predicted score that would see the total go UNDER.

That said, if the consensus total were to move to 7.5 due to betting action at participating sportsbooks our suggested pick would change to OVER 7.5 (-105) at Sportsbook B as three out of five sources would then be predicting that the total would go OVER (assuming they haven’t changed their predicted scores) and Sportsbook B is offering the best price on that pick.