Louisiana vs Tennessee Basketball Prediction & Picks (March Madness 2023 First Round)

Last Update: Thu Mar 16, 2023, 4:06 pm ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

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Will a disappointing home stretch culminate in another early March Madness exit for Tennessee? They could be in for a tough test tonight in Orlando against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (9:40 pm ET, CBS).

The Vols were in the running for a high seed at one point in the seed, but an underwhelming finish consigned them to the fourth seed in the East Region, which sets them up with a challenge from the Sun Belt champions, who are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2014.

Will the Vols fend off the upset and advance to face either Duke or Oral Roberts on Saturday? Read on for our Louisiana vs Tennessee prediction, as well as our picks for tonight's tilt at the Amway Center.

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Louisiana vs Tennessee Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 16, 2023.

Spread

Louisiana +10.5 (-102)
Tennessee -10.5 (-120)

Over/Under

Over 135.5 (-110)
Under 135.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Louisiana +470
Tennessee -670

What Will Brown Do for Louisiana?

The Sun Belt doesn't get the same level of attention as some other mid-major conferences, but it was strong this year with six teams in the top 130 at KenPom. That is more than Conference USA Atlantic 10, and Missouri Valley, as many as the West Coast Conference, and one fewer than the American.

So, Louisiana (26-7) did well to emerge from the conference tournament in Pensacola, Florida with the automatic bid, which they secured with a 71-66 win over South Alabama.

But can the Ragin' Cajuns make a serious bid for the upset against the Vols? Tennessee (23-10) will have its hands full with UL big man Jordan Brown (19.4 PPG, 8.7 RPG), who has five double-doubles in his last six games.

But the Ragin' Cajuns certainly aren't a one-man band. As a team, they average 78.0 PPG (38th in Division I), and they shoot 37.8% from three (22nd in D-I) and 48.4% overall from the field (15th in D-I).

Tennessee ranks second in college basketball in adjusted defensive efficiency, and the nation's best three-point defense is a key reason for that.

But the Vols enter March Madness 5-7 SU and 4-8-0 ATS in their last 12 games, and they have been dealing with injury issue after injury issue.

In the penultimate game of the regular season, they lost guard Zakai Ziegler, a vital piece on both ends of the court, for the season with a torn ACL. They promptly gave up 79 points at Auburn in their regular season finale, then gave up the same number in their SEC Tournament quarterfinal loss to Missouri.

Louisiana vs Tennessee Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Louisiana vs Tennessee: Tennessee

Picks vs Louisiana vs Tennessee: Louisiana to cover (Best Value: +11.5 @ BetMGM) & Louisiana team total over 61.5 (Best Value: BetUS)

I won't go as far as picking the upset, as I think the Vols will find a way to win. But I expect the Ragin' Cajuns to make them work for it and push Tennessee for 40 minutes.

Where to Bet on Louisiana vs Tennessee

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year's NCAA men's and women's tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.