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FAU vs San Diego State Prediction & Picks: Semifinal #1 Best Bets

Sat Apr 01 2023

In the Women’s Final Four, there are going to be two first-time finalists as LSU and Iowa face off tomorrow afternoon in Dallas. On the men’s side, there will be at least one first-time finalist in Houston on Monday night, in the form of the winner of today’s first semifinal between FAU and San Diego State.

The Owls (35-3) are the nation’s leader in wins and the lowest seed remaining in the field, as they emerged victorious out of the chaos of the East Regional as the ninth seed.

To reach the Final Four in just their second NCAA Tournament appearance, the Owls upset fifth-seeded Tennessee and third-seeded Kansas State in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight behind two inspired and impressive performances.

The Aztecs (31-6), the fifth seed in the South Regional, found themselves behind in the second half against both Alabama, the tournament’s top overall seed, and Creighton in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight.

But SDSU used defense and timely scoring to destroy the title aspirations of the Crimson Tide and Bluejays and reach the Final Four for the first time as well.

Which of these Final Four first timers will play for a championship on Monday night? Read on for our FAU vs San Diego State prediction, as well as our picks for this evening’s first matchup at NRG Stadium.

Looking for More Men’s and Women’s Final Four Picks?

At Betting News, we will have predictions and picks for each game of the men’s and women’s Final Four.

Miami vs UConn Prediction & Picks (Men’s Final Four Semifinal #2)
LSU vs Iowa Prediction & Picks (Women’s National Championship Game)

But if you are interested in checking out picks elsewhere to get another perspective, there are a number of reputable sports handicapping services that we recommend.

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FAU vs San Diego State Odds

Odds are via FanDuel as of Saturday, April 1, 2023.

Spread

FAU +2.5 (-110)
San Diego State -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 130.5 (-115)
Under 130.5 (-105)

Moneyline

FAU +122
San Diego State -146

Will the Aztecs Ground the High-Flying Owls with Their Trademark Defense?

FAU San Diego State Final Four preview prediction Aguek Arop Aztecs

This certainly shouldn’t come as a surprise, but of the four teams vying for a championship in Houston, San Diego State is ranked highest in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.

Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rankings for the Men’s Final Four Teams

4. San Diego State
11. UConn
30. FAU
104. Miami

The Aztecs have shown this season that they can score when they need to, but their defense is why they are two wins from a title.

College of Charleston (won 63-57): 18 of 56 FG (32.1%), 5 of 24 3PT (20.8%)
Furman (won 75-52): 16 of 50 FG (32.0%), 6 of 26 3PT (23.1%)
Alabama (won 71-64): 23 of 71 FG (32.4%), 3 of 27 3PT (11.1%)
Creighton (won 57-56): 22 of 55 FG (40.0%), 2 of 17 3PT (11.8%)
Tournament Totals: 57.3 PPG, 79 of 232 FG (34.1%), 16 of 94 3PT (17.0%)

FAU hadn’t really shot the ball all that well in the NCAA Tournament until their Elite Eight win over Kansas State. Against the Wildcats, the Owls shot 39.1% (9 of 23) from three and 48.1% (26 of 54) overall from the field.

Arguably the big key tonight for San Diego State is limiting FAU’s success from the perimeter. The Owls average 26.4 attempts from outside per game and convert at a clip of 36.5% (9.6 made threes per game). Nationally, they rank 14th in made threes per game, 20th in three-point attempts per game, and 56th in three-point shooting percentage.

In the NCAA Tournament, FAU is shooting just 31.2% (34 of 109) from outside, but they have made at least eight threes in each game and have attempted at least 23 threes in each game. So, it is imperative that SDSU doesn’t allow them to get hot at any point.

FAU vs San Diego State Prediction and Picks

Prediction for FAU vs San Diego State: San Diego State to win

Pick for FAU vs San Diego State: San Diego State ML (Best Value: BetRivers)

Both of these teams are riding excellent ATS runs heading into the Final Four.

Since starting 3-11-1 ATS this season, the Aztecs have gone 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games and have covered in each of their last six games. The Owls, meanwhile, are 8-3-0 ATS in their current 11-game win streak.

Here, however, I am staying away from the spread and backing SDSU for the win over FAU. With spreads of fewer than three points, I prefer to go with the moneyline when betting on the favorite if the value is right, and the value is right here.

Where to Bet on FAU vs San Diego State

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.