AFC Championship Game Odds, Preview & Bet: Broncos vs Patriots
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Sun Jan 25, 2026, 10:18 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The AFC Championship Game is set, with the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos hosting the No. 2 seed New England Patriots for a trip to the Super Bowl. However, the outlook is much different for the home team, as Denver will be without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix, for the remainder of the season after he suffered an ankle injury in overtime of last week's Divisional Round win over the Buffalo Bills.
That leaves backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham with a chance to win the Super Bowl – who would've thunk it? So how does all of this impact matchup? I'll tell you below with my AFC Championship game early preview odds and more.
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AFC Championship Game Early Odds, Preview & Bet: Broncos vs Patriots
Can Jarrett Stidham replace Bo Nix and take the Broncos to the Super Bowl?
AFC Championship Game Early Odds
Prior to Bo Nix's injury, hypothetical lookahead lines had the Denver Broncos listed as 1.5-point home favorites. Following the injury – and the realization that Jarrett Stidham would be the starter – most sportsbooks opened the New England Patriots as 5.5-point favorites, with the total set at 40.5.
Since then, there's been some support for the home underdogs, who are now catching a consensus 4.5 points. Several outlets are also listing flat +5s. Meanwhile, the total has seen significant movement, rising to 42 at most sportsbooks.
AFC Championship Preview
Regardless of who was going to be under center for Denver, this matchup was always going to be difficult. On the other side is a potential league MVP in Drake Maye.
Maye was outstanding in his second NFL season, throwing for 4,394 yards while completing 72% of his passes with a 31–8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, his production has dipped somewhat during the postseason. Across two playoff games, he's completed just 59% of his throws, taken 10 sacks, and totaled only 447 passing yards, though he does still own a 4–2 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
A Boutte Beauty ❄️@Patriots | @InsidetheNFL pic.twitter.com/EmdDn83DyR
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) January 19, 2026
To give Maye the slight benefit of the doubt, his first playoff start came against a strong Los Angeles Chargers defense, and he followed that up by playing the best defense in the league in brutal weather conditions. That unit forced an interception and two lost fumbles from Maye.
Denver's defense isn't far off from that level, and the Broncos also benefit from home-field advantage and altitude. That side of the ball could do enough to keep this game competitive and provide Jarrett Stidham at least a puncher's chance.
The defense Stidham will face was below average for much of the season, but showed real improvement down the stretch. New England finished the year ranking 11th in EPA per play and 18th in success rate. They've also been excellent in the red zone recently, allowing touchdowns on just 22.2% of opponent trips inside the 20 over their past three games.
That defensive momentum has carried into the postseason. New England recorded six sacks against Justin Herbert in the Wild Card Round while holding the Chargers to just three points, then followed that up by limiting the Houston Texans to 16 points and forcing C.J. Stroud into four interceptions, a 43% completion rate and a lost fumble by running back Woody Marks.
Perhaps Denver can catch a brief spark with Jarrett Stidham under center. As unlikely as it may sound, it's something we see from time to time in professional sports. Some refer to it as the "fallen star theory," where a superstar player goes down and the team immediately rallies around that absence, rising to the occasion. That spark seldom lasts more than a game, though.
Still, Stidham has logged just four snaps this season and appeared in only three games last year, which limits the available film and leaves the Patriots facing a degree of uncertainty. At the same time, there's been plenty of criticism surrounding Bo Nix's play this season, so while his absence is certainly significant, Denver's success has largely been driven by their defense rather than quarterback play alone.
The bigger concern for this Broncos offense is the ground game, or lack thereof. With rookie running back RJ Harvey leading the way, Denver ranked 22nd in rush EPA per play from Week 11 through the end of the regular season. If they can't establish a consistent rushing attack, they'll be forced to place too much responsibility on an inexperienced and unknown commodity at quarterback.
There is some encouraging news in the backfield, though, as veteran tailback J.K. Dobbins had his practice window opened this week. Dobbins has been on injured reserve since suffering an injury in Week 10, yet despite his absence, he still leads the team in rushing yards (772) and carries (153). His return would be a significant addition for a Broncos offense that's been struggling to find consistency.
AFC Championship Bet
Bet: Broncos +5 (-112 at Lucky Rebel)
Seeing the market initially shift toward Denver is telling. Given the circumstances surrounding the Broncos, along with our assessment of their legitimacy this season, you might expect the line to move more aggressively toward New England. That may still happen as we get closer to kickoff, but it hasn't materialized yet. A move from +5.5 to +4.5 isn't massive and doesn't cross a key number, but it's still indicative that the Broncos aren't being priced as a team expected to roll over.
Aside from what the market may be telling us, I wouldn't expect that type of performance anyway. There's potential for a spark with a new arm under center in Denver, which also puts the Patriots at a slight disadvantage as they prepare for an offense featuring potentially unfamiliar patterns and schematics from Sean Payton.
Factor all of that in alongside Maye's postseason struggles and the Patriots heading into a difficult road environment, and taking the points becomes the more appealing option.
NFL Record: 108-92-1 (+4.85 units)
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Check back into Betting News later this week to get our updated bets on both this matchup and the NFC Championship Game showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. Also, look at our NFL playoffs hub for even more information and NFL picks.
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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