Rams vs. Seahawks | 2025 NFC Conference Championship: Winner Take All
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Tue Jan 27, 2026, 12:04 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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The NFC Conference Championship is here and all roads to the Super Bowl go right through Seattle. The Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams this week for their third matchup of the year, this being the most important. Let's not waste any time and jump right into this game.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Lumen Field; Seattle, Washington
- Date: Sunday, January 25th, 2026
- Kickoff: 6:30 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Los Angeles Rams: Matt Stafford (2025: 12-5 | 276.9 YPG | 46 TD | 8 INT)
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold (2025: 14-3 | 238.1 YPG | 25 TD | 14 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Legion of Doom
I can't talk enough about this Seattle defensive unit. The team's 1st in the NFL in points allowed, 5th in opponent redzone efficiency, 10th in pass yards allowed and 3rd in opponent rush yards. Seattle's giving up just 4.5 yards per play (2nd) this year and it's lead to a ton of low scoring games for their opponents.
Seattle's most recent game was a perfect display of how this unit's won them games this year. The Hawks held the San Francisco 49ers to just 6 total points, 236 yards of offense and forced 3 turnovers.
The defense ranks 1st in EPA/play allowed and have the league's best run defense. The Hawks offense ranks 3rd in points scored, 8th in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards and 3rd in yards per play. Seattle's kryptonite has been turnovers this year and the root of that issue has been Sam Darnold.
Ten of Darnold's 14 interceptions have come in the last nine games of the regular season, and yet the Hawks have managed to win eight of the nine. This defense is elite and the 1.5 turnovers per game they generate has done a lot to offset most of these mistakes made by Sam.
Darnold's been great this year. He finished the season 5th in passing yards, 9th in passing touchdowns and as a top-5 deep ball passer. The issue with him has been turnovers. The Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC but have also turned the ball over at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. The team's got 28 total turnovers and 20 have been committed by Darnold himself.
Sammy vs. Staffy
For the second straight year, we're going to see Sam Darnold take on Matthew Stafford in the NFL Playoffs. It was Darnold's first ever playoff start and it was with the Minnesota Vikings. Stafford would throw for 209 yards, 2 touchdowns and walk away with the win. Darnold threw for 245 yards, 1 touchdown but did turn the ball over twice.
Darnold was sacked 9 times in that game and he struggled because of it. This year Darnold plays behind an offensive line that's given up the 5th fewest sacks on the year and should hold up a whole lot better against this Rams front seven.
Stafford looked bad in the Divisional Round but he led the league with 4,707 pass yards, 46 touchdowns passes and finished with the 2nd best passer rating on the year. He completed 65% of his passes on the year and threw a career high 46 touchdown passes at age 37. He's the engine that drives this #1 ranked Rams' offense and he's been great against Seattle.
Stafford is 6-1 against the Seahawks since coming to Los Angeles and he's won 3 of the 4 road games. In Seattle, Stafford's averaging 363.5 pass yards per game, he's thrown 6 touchdowns, 2 interceptions and has a passer rating of 96.2. Stafford's won 7 of his 9 playoff games with Los Angeles and he's averaging 294.4 pass yards per game while doing it. He's thrown 18 touchdowns in these 9 games and just 4 interceptions.
This week Stafford's up against of his toughest tests yet, the Legion of Doom.
Trends/Insights
Seattle
Head Coach Mike McDonald has done a great job with this defense and with the help of Sam Darnold they've turned this team around.
- Darnold is 29-7 SU over the last two years, representing the most wins by any QB in that time frame
- The Seahawks have tied their single season record for ATS spread wins, going 13-5 ATS so far this year.
- The Seahawks are 8-2 SU against teams over .500, two losses came to the Buccaneers and Rams, both by less than a touchdown.
- Darnold 14-5 SU last two years against teams above .500
Los Angeles
The one thing that both McVay and Stafford have done well is beat the Seahawks.
- McVay is 13-6 SU against the Hawks since 2019 and 12-3 ATS
- With Stafford at QB, the Rams are 6-1 SU against the Seahawks and 5-2 ATS. The lone loss was in Week 16 when the Rams blew a 16-point, 4th quarter lead.
The Rams have now won back to back road games and historically that puts them in a tough position.
- When a team's playing their third straight road game in the playoffs, they've gone a combined 12-30 SU and 9-28 as the underdog.
Saturday's Best Bets
Colby Parkinson o24.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
Parkinson played four seasons for the Seahawks and made the playoffs just once. This week he's up against the team that drafted him with a chance at the Super Bowl on the line. Parkinson's seen 7+ targets in 4 of L6 games overall but against this stout Seahawks defense he's struggled.
Last week we saw this Seahawks defense get torched by Jake Tonges for 59 yards before leaving with injury. This week it's Colby Parkinson that gets the job done.
Parkinson's having a career year across the board and he scored the game winning touchdown in the Wild Card Round against the Carolina Panthers. Stafford's shown tremendous trust in the young TE and with the way Puka burned this defense last time, I'm expecting Seattle to make adjustments.
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