Fight Night at Ford Field: Packers vs. Lions — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/25)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Oct 24, 2026, 8:25 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-107
54.5
-110o
+165
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.5
-105
53.5
-110u
-183
The NFC North has got to be the best division in football. All four teams in the North currently have winning records, six weeks into the season. The four teams have combined for 17 wins, 6 losses and 3 of those losses have come to other NFC North teams.
This week we've got the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions going head to head at Ford Field. This will be Detroit's first divisional game of the year and Green Bay's third. This is also the 7th time both Jared Goff and Jordan Love have gone head to head; both winning 3-games a piece.
Big time matchup in a big time division; let's jump right into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Ford Field; Detroit, Michigan
- Date: Sunday, October 24th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (2026: 3-2; 281.6 YPG | 10 TD | 3 INT)
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (2026: 3-2; 297.0 YPG | 12 TD | 0 INT)
Last 5 Games
GB
Result
ATS
Total
vs DAL
W13 - 23
L-13.5
41
vs CHI
W7 - 31
W+1.5
46
@ TB
W17 - 14
P-3.0
39
vs ATL
L35 - 14
L-4.5
P49
@ NYJ
W20 - 17
L-3.5
44
DET
Result
ATS
Total
@ ARI
W45 - 21
W-5.5
54
@ CAR
L26 - 32
L-3.5
57
vs NYJ
W24 - 31
W-6.5
48
@ BUF
L31 - 41
L+5.5
P72
vs NO
W30 - 31
L-7.0
49
Analysis & Breakdown
Home from Holiday
The Detroit Lions come into this week's matchup, fresh off their bye week. The Lions are 3-2, they went into the bye hot off a 45-point performance and will now have been off for exactly 14 days going into Sunday's matchup with the Packers.
Since taking over as Head Coach, Dan Campbell's gone 2-2-1 in the game following the team's bye week. The Lions haven't won back to back games since Week 4/5 of last year and now without both Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn; Campbell's won just 12 of 22 games.
The offense has been fantastic, but the defense has been equally as bad. The Lions rank 1st in points (32.8) but 30th in points allowed (29.6). The team is 32nd in pass yards allowed (297.4), but 3rd in pass yards per game (279.6).
Detroit's averaging the 5th most yards per play and rank 5th in explosive play rate. The defense is 24th in opponent yards per play and they allowing the 6th highest explosive play rate. Detroit's offense has to put up a ton of points every single week, but it's a good thing they've got the guys to do it.
Jared Goff's looked great this year. He's averaging 297 pass yards per game, he's thrown 12 touchdowns, 0 interceptions and he's got a passer rating of 111.3. Jahmyr Gibbs has been the best RB in football and he's being fed like it.
Among RBs, Gibbs ranks 1st in the NFL in designated carry share, 4th in rush yards, 2nd in target share and he's got the 3rd most receiving yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown's got the third most receiving touchdowns in the league (5), he's also played one fewer game and he's got the 5th highest target share in the NFL.
The Lions offense is (possibly) the best in the NFL, but this defense is (at least) one the worst.
Cheese Wheel
The Cheeseheads are rolling, winners of 3 straight games and the defense has surprised a ton of people. In back to back weeks now, the Packers defense has held two of the NFL's best offenses in check.
Last week the Packers hosted the Cowboys at Lambeau Field and held their high powered offense to 7 points for the first 59 minutes of that game. Dak would throw a meaningless touchdown with 52 seconds left in the game, but prior to that the Cowboys had scored just 7 points and that came via Javonte Williams on the ground.
Dallas finished with just 303 total yards, 255 through the air; 71 of which came on the last drive of the game. Green Bay held Javonte Williams to just 3.7 yards per carry and held the tandem of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb to just 143 total yards through the air and no scores.
Offensively, the Packers have a gameplan and that's to air it out. Jordan Love is 3rd in the NFL in deep throw rate, he's got the 4th most completions of 20+ yards and he's doing all of this while his receivers lead the NFL in drops.
Love's averaging 280.7 pass yards per game, he's thrown 11 touchdowns, 4 interceptions and he's got passer rating of 91.8. Since that Thursday Night game against the Falcons, the Packers have been a different team. The signed 3 OL and the moves have made all the difference.
Sunday's Best Bets
Matthew Golden o69.5 Receiving Yards (-105) | Lucky Rebel
Love's pressure rate has been cut in half and he's been thriving with the extra time in the pocket. Over the last 3 weeks, Love is 1st in deep throw rate, 6th in catchable throw rate, he's completing 68% of his passes and he's got the 7th highest completion percentage over expectation (CPOE).
Love is one of just two QBs in the top-18 of CPOE with a deep throw rate higher than 13%; all while his receivers lead the NFL in drops. This week the Packers head to Ford Field and while normally the road environment can be tough; playing indoors always a nice change of pace for the Packers.
Going back to last year, Detroit's running the 2nd most man coverage in the NFL (35%).
Love's absolutely killed man coverage in his career:
- 55% Completion Rate
- 46 Touchdowns
- 6 Interceptions
- 103.8 Passer Rating
Since the start of last year, Matthew Golden has been one of the league's best separators against man coverage. He has the 5th highest separation score against man in that time and for most of last year he just never got the ball.
This season Golden's 4th in targets per route run versus man (.38). He's 8th in yards per route run versus man (3.16) and his best game this year came against a man-heavy Bears' defense.
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