NFL Conference Championship Trends, Notes & Insights | Betting Preview

It feels like the NFL Season just began a few short weeks ago, yet here we are; Conference Championship Weekend. We've got two big time games on the docket with a trip to the Super Bowl hanging in the balance.

The Seahawks handled business in the Divisional Round and will now host the Rams for their third meeting of the season. We've got two of the top three offenses going head to head and it's why we've got such a high total in the NFC Championship.

On the other side of the bracket is the Broncos and Patriots. Unfortunately we saw Bo Nix fracture his ankle in overtime last week and now we'll see Jarrett Stidham under center in the Championship Game. The Patriots will be on the road for the first time in these playoffs and it'll be in the the unforgiving Denver altitude.

Both games are lining up to be great and it's why I had to dive into some Conference Championship trends to try and find an edge. Let's get into it.

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General Trends

Line/Total

• Game totals in the Conference Championships less than 45 have gone 10-4-1 to the over in the L15
• The last 22 times a home team has won and covered the point spread, the total has also gone 16-6 to the over.
• The last 14 times the road team covered the spread, the total has gone 9-5 to the under

Defense Wins

• Since 2010, teams allowing fewer points per game than their opponents are 18-13 SU and 19-12 ATS
• In the last 23 years, teams allowing fewer passing yards per game than their opponents are 29-17 SU and 30-16 ATS
• Teams allowing less yards overall than their opponents are 28-18 SU and 29-17 ATS

Seeding

• Since 2002, Conference Championship Games between the #1 and #2 seeds are 14-5-1 to the over

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Nothing Was the Same

The Patriots come into this game as a 4.5-point road favorite and with their eyes set on the Super Bowl. The Patriots have the 2nd best offense in the NFL, averaging 28.8 points per game and scoring 3.3 touchdowns per game (4th). The offense is 1st in yards per play, 4th in passing yards, 6th in rushing yards and have committed the 4th fewest turnovers.

Drake Maye was amazing in his second year, looking and playing like an MVP. Maye finished 4th in passing yards, 3rd in touchdown passes, 1st in passer rating, 1st in completion percentage over expectation and he's got one of the best deep balls in the league. On passes of 20+ yards, Maye is top-5 in completion rate, yards, touchdowns, completions and passing grade.

Maye's been fantastic this year and it's resulted in 14-wins and a AFC East Division Title. He wins games he's supposed to and he's great on the road.

• Maye is 12-0 SU as a favorite of 3-points or more, 10-2 ATS. He's won these games by an average of 16.3 points per game.
• The Patriots were the only undefeated team on the road this year, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS.

The arrival of Mike Vrabel in New England changed everything. This Patriots squad went from 4-wins last year to 14-wins this year. The defense has been elite, ranking 4th in points allowed, 9th in pass yards allowed and 6th in rush yards allowed. Vrabel changed the culture here in New England and the players have bought in. He's won as a player, he's won as a coach and now he's back in New England looking for that first Super Bowl as a Head Coach.

• As Head Coach, Vrabel's 16-6 SU as a road favorite. In games coming in December or later, he's a perfect 8-0 SU and winning those games by an average of 17 points per game

Bucking Broncos

The Broncos were involved in a shootout last week and unfortunately they lost their best gunslinger, Bo Nix. The Broncos won an overtime thriller against the Bills and now come into this one without their starting QB and Super Bowl hopes looking bleak. The team scored 33 points last week against the Bills but we've also seen them struggle offensively all year.

• Stidham will be just the 9th QB to ever make their season debut in the postseason, the previous 8 went 1-7 SU
• This will be Sean Payton's 22nd game with a backup QB under center, he's gone 12-9 SU and 14-7 ATS in those 21 previous games.

The Broncos rank 14th in points scored, 11th in pass yards, 16th in pass yards, 14th in yards per play and still somehow came away with the #1 seed in the AFC. The defense has done the heavy lifting this year, ranking 3rd in points allowed, 1st in opponent redzone efficiency, 7th in pass yards allowed and 2nd in rush yards allowed.

• Denver has scored less than 21 points in 9 games this year but still won 14 games. Just the 5th team in the Super Bowl era to have 9+ games under 21 points and still win 13 or more.
  • Two of the four teams went on to win the Super Bowl, one lost in the Conference Championship and one in the divisional round.

Denver comes into this game as one of the few teams to ever be a home dog of 4-points or more and with the extra day of rest under their belt. Historically that bodes well for the Broncos.

• Home dogs of 4+ points are 9-0 ATS in the last 50 years. Panthers were in the same spot in the Wild Card Round, covered.
• Teams with a rest advantage in the Conference Championship have gone 27-17 SU since 2003/2004. Home teams with the rest advantage have gone 21-7 in that same span.

Rams vs. Seahawks

Legion of Doom

The Seahawks defense this year has been near untouchable. The Legion of Doom ranks 1st in points allowed, 2nd in opponent yards per play, 3rd in opponent rush yards, 5th in forced turnovers and 6th in sacks. The team is holding their opponents to a 50% redzone conversion rate (5th) and 32.1% conversion rate on third down (1st).

They've done a great job of getting pressure on opposing QBs and it's why they've consistently set up the Seahawks offense with great field position. The defense ranks 1st in EPA/play allowed and have the leagues best run defense. The Hawks offense ranks 3rd in points scored, 8th in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards and 3rd in yards per play. Seattle's kryptonite has been turnovers this year and the root of that issue has been Sam Darnold.

Darnold's been great this year. He finished the season 5th in passing yards, 9th in passing touchdowns and as a top-5 deep ball passer. The issue with him has been turnovers. The Seahawks are the #1 seed in the NFC but have also turned the ball over at the 2nd highest rate in the NFL. The team's got 28 total turnovers and 20 have been committed by Darnold.

Head Coach Mike McDonald has done a great job with this defense and with the help of Sam Darnold they've turned this team around.

• Darnold is 29-7 SU over the last two years, representing most wins by any QB in that time frame
• The Seahawks have tied their single season record for ATS spread wins, going 13-5 ATS so far this year.
• The Sehawks are 8-2 SU against teams over .500, two losses came to the Buccaneers and Rams, both by less than a touchdown.
• Darnold 14-5 SU last two years against teams above .500

Most Valuable Gunslinger

If we're going to talk about the Rams, we've gotta start with this year's most likely MVP; Matthew Stafford. Stafford lead the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns. He ranks 2nd in passer rating this year and has been the engine that drives this #1 ranked Rams' offense.

The team's averaging 30.5 points per game this year and they were one of the few teams to put up more than 20 points on this Seahawks defense (they did it twice). Los Angeles ranks 1st passing yards, 7th in rushing yards and 2nd in yards per play. The Rams offensive line has given up the fewest sacks in the league and the extra time in the pocket has greatly helped this Rams offense.

Defensively the team's been just as good. After a poor outing against the Panthers in the Wild Card, the Rams' were not messing around in Chicago. Los Angeles came away with 3 interceptions in the Divisional Round, none more important that Kam Curl's interception in overtime.

The team ranks 10th in points allowed this year but have the third best redzone defense. Los Angeles ranks 6th in forced turnovers and 5th in turnover differential. They've not only forced a ton of turnovers but the offense has done a great job of taking care of the ball.

The one thing that both McVay and Stafford have done well is beat the Seahawks.

• McVay is 13-6 SU against the Hawks since 2019 and 12-3 ATS
• With Stafford at QB, the Rams are 6-1 SU against the Seahawks and 5-2 ATS. The lone loss was in Week 16 when the Rams blew a 16-point, 4th quarter lead.

The Rams have now won back to back road games and historically that puts them in a tough position.

• When a team's playing their third straight road game in the playoffs, they've gone a combined 12-30 SU and 9-28 as the underdog.

Conference Championship weekend is here and I couldn't be more excited. Lock in and let's have some fun.

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