Packers vs Dolphins Week 16 Betting: Miami Crushes Green Bay’s Christmas Spirit

Devon Platana

Christmas Day is packed with NFL Week 16 action, including an afternoon matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins. Both teams are doing what they can to push for a playoff spot, which only ups the stakes. Needless to say, neither side can afford to lose the latest Packers vs Dolphins showdown.

Despite a disappointing campaign thus far, the Packers enter this matchup following back-to-back wins. They picked up a 24-12 victory over the LA Rams on Monday, highlighted by running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon registering each of their team’s three touchdowns on the night.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins losing skid has extended three games after losing, 32-29, to the Buffalo Bills. Miami was neck-and-neck with Buffalo right until the end — literally — as Tyler Bass hit a buzzer-beating 25-yard field goal to give the Bills the win as time expired.

Betting News has gathered the latest Packers vs Dolphins odds from FanDuel Sportsbook to help shed some light on the situation, along with a prediction and best bets for the NFL Week 16 game.

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Week 16 Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Green Bay Packers (6-8, 2-5 Away) vs. Miami Dolphins (8-6, 5-1 Home)
  • Venue & Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
  • Date: Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022
  • Game Time: 1 p.m. Eastern Time
  • Packers vs Dolphins Info: FOX

Packers vs Dolphins Early Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel as of Wednesday, Dec. 21 at 10:04 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

  • Green Bay Packers +4.5 (-112)
  • Miami Dolphins -4.5 (-108)

Over/Under

  • Over 48.5 Points (-114)
  • Under 48.5 Points (-106)

Moneyline

  • Green Bay Packers +176
  • Miami Dolphins -210

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Betting Trends

  • Green Bay is 3-7 straight up in its last 10 games.
  • Miami is 11-1 straight up in its last 12 home games.
  • Green Bay is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last six road games against Miami.
  • Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against NFC North opponents.
  • The total has hit the over in four of Green Bay’s last five games.
  • The total has hit the under in eight of Miami’s last 11 games against Green Bay.

Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Picks

Packers vs Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins 30, Packers 21

Packers vs Dolphins Picks: Dolphins -4.5 (Best Value: -108 at FanDuel) & Over 48.5 Points (Best Value: -114 at FanDuel)

Even though the Packers have done a fair amount of winning lately, it’s still hard to trust them. After all, their latest two victories came against the Rams and Chicago Bears — two underperforming teams that combine for a 7-21 record.

It’s fair to say that the Packers will have a tougher test this time around. Sure, the Dolphins are on their longest losing skid of the year, but two of those losses came against the Bills and San Francisco 49ers, who are both viewed as Super Bowl contenders. On top of that, all three of the losses came on the road.

The Dolphins are a completely different beast at Hard Rock Stadium. They’re 5-1 at home this season and have won 11 of the last 12 games in their own building.

On top of that, Miami owns the sixth-best scoring margin at home (plus-8.3). Meanwhile, Green Bay’s minus-4.3 margin on the road is 13th-worst in the NFL, highlighting the struggles that Matt LaFleur’s team has had away from Lambeau Field.

If the Packers want to stand a chance, they also need Aaron Rodgers to play better under center. The four-time NFL MVP has been fairly average lately, recording 551 passing yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions along the way. Miami does give up the sixth-most passing yards, but only time will tell if Rodgers can take advantage of that fact.

Aaron Rodgers must play better than he has lately if he hopes to help the Packers beat the Dolphins.

If Green Bay tries to run its offense through Dillon and Jones again, it may not work. Miami allows the second-fewest rushing yards at home (85.7) and is capable of shutting down even the top backfields.

On the other side, Tua Tagovailoa has been playing really well for the Dolphins. The third-year QB has thrown out 15 TDs to just two INTs over his last seven starts, averaging 277.4 passing yards over that stretch. The Packers don’t surrender a ton of passing yards, but they have surrendered at least 250 in three of their last five games.

One reason why I see Miami winning this Packers vs Dolphins matchup is due to its defense getting stops. The Dolphins own the 14th-best third-down defense at home, whereas the Packers allow opponents to convert on 43.2% of attempts when they’re on the road — the league’s 10th-highest rate.

I also see the Dolphins covering the 4.5-point spread in this one. They’re 4-2 ATS at home this season while Green Bay has a losing record against the spread on the road (3-4) thus far. It also helps that the Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC.

Nevertheless, I do see this game going over the 48.5-point total. The Dolphins’ offense has been firing all season long and the Packers’ unit has started heating up lately. With the total also going over in four of Green Bay’s last five games and five of Miami’s last seven, there’s definitely potential for a fair amount of offense on Christmas Day.

Other Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins Resources

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana