Dolphins vs Bills Week 4 Prediction & Best Bets: Buffalo Bids to Bring Soaring Dolphins Back to Earth

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Updated:

Read Time: 5 minutes

Dolphins vs Bills Week 4 Prediction & Best Bets: Buffalo Bids to Bring Soaring Dolphins Back to Earth cover


Is the balance of power about to shift in the AFC East? This Sunday showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills (1:00 pm ET, CBS) is only one game, but it could prove to be telling about the forecast for the division–and perhaps the AFC.

Last Sunday, the Dolphins became just the third team in NFL history–the first since 1966–to score 70 points in a regular season game as they destroyed the dismal Denver Broncos 70-20.

Through the first three weeks of the season, the Dolphins sit atop the AFC East and are now favored to win their first division title since 2008. Also, only the Kansas City Chiefs (+300) have shorter AFC championship odds than the Dolphins (+425), with the Bills now third (+550), followed by the Baltimore Ravens (+800) and Cincinnati Bengals (+900).

But there are many miles to go before they can sleep with the Lamar Hunt Trophy or the Vince Lombardi Trophy, and this matchup is one of many stops they will need to navigate on that journey.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Early Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 6:45 pm ET Wednesday, September 27, 2023.


  • Miami Dolphins +3 (-115)
  • Buffalo Bills -3 (-105)


  • Over 54.5 (-110)
  • Under 54.5 (-110)


  • Miami Dolphins +130
  • Buffalo Bills -150

Gameday Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of 5:30 am ET Sunday, October 1, 2023.


  • Miami Dolphins +3 (-120)
  • Buffalo Bills -3 (+100)


  • Over 53.5 (-110)
  • Under 53.5 (-110)


  • Miami Dolphins +125
  • Buffalo Bills -145

Are the Dolphins Now the Team to Beat in the AFC East?

Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins NFL

There’s nothing the sports world loves more than a new team emerging on the scene, and the Dolphins are now the flavor of the week after their sensational start to the season.

Opening with road wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots was a huge step for Miami, who was only 3-6 on the road last season.

But anytime you do something that hasn’t been done in almost 60 years, and you also break a record that has been in place for over 70 years, people are going to really stand up and take notice.

Along with reaching rare air with their 70-point performance, the Dolphins also set a new single-game NFL record for total yards with 726. That eclipsed the record held by the Los Angeles Rams since September 28, 1951, and it was the first time a team eclipsed 650 yards since the Houston Texans did so on November 18, 2012.

So, it would appear that this team is legit. But are they the best team in the AFC East? Should they be spoken about in the same breath as the Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Philadelphia Eagles as top Super Bowl title contenders?

A loss to the Bills wouldn’t mean that neither of those questions can’t be answered affirmatively. However, a win would only increase the noise surrounding this talented team, especially considering how rarely they have won at and against Buffalo in recent years.

Buffalo’s 34-31 win in last season’s NFL playoffs took the Bills to 9-1 in the last ten head-to-head meetings with the Dolphins, and they are 16-5 in the last 21 matchups. Also, it was their 11th win in their last 12 home meetings with Miami, with wins in the last seven heading into Sunday’s contest.

Recent Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Head-to-Head Results

  • January 15, 2023 (at Buffalo): Bills 34-31
  • December 17, 2022 (at Buffalo): Bills 32-29
  • September 25, 2022 (at Miami): Dolphins 21-19
  • October 31, 2021 (at Buffal0: Bills 26-11
  • September 19, 2021 (at Miami): Bills 35-0
  • January 3, 2021 (at Buffalo): Bills 56-26
  • September 20, 2020 (at Miami): Bills 31-28
  • November 17, 2019 (at Miami): Bills 37-20
  • October 20, 2019 (at Buffalo): Bills 31-21
  • December 30, 2018 (at Buffalo): Bills 42-17

The sky certainly seems to be the limit for this Dolphins team, win or lose, but if they can stick a fork into that dominance, NFL futures odds will only move even more.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction: Bills to win

Best Bets: Bills -3 (-105 at Bovada) & Dolphins/Bills over 54.5 (-110 at Bovada)

Now, I love these Dolphins and expect big, big things from them this season and in the seasons ahead.

However, the Bills are still very much a team worthy of the spotlight themselves. After opening the season with a road loss to the New York Jets, they have responded in resounding fashion, outscoring the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders 75-13. They aren’t about to relinquish their place atop the AFC East without a serious fight.

This game could be a wild one, much like their last three meetings. But in the end, I’m looking for the Bills to pull out the win and put the brakes on the Miami hype train, for a week at least.

Where to Bet on Dolphins vs Bills

Many of the top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of NFL odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to bet on Super Bowl spread and over/under odds when the big game arrives, you can make weekly NFL picks on games all season long.

Also, you can bet on the major awards like NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and Defensive Player of the Year, and more at most reputable sports betting sites.

Along with Bovada, where the Dolphins vs Bills odds in this article came from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for NFL betting. Here are several books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

Other NFL Week 4 Content on Betting News

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.