Ravens vs Browns, Prediction & Best Bets: Ravens Can’t Survive Dawg Pound
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Sep 26, 2023, 4:43 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
We have a divisional rivalry game in Cleveland as the 2-1 Browns host the 2-1 Baltimore Ravens.
Three of the four teams in the AFC North are 2-1 after 3 weeks of the season, with the Bengals in dead last after getting their 1st win last night.
This is the Browns 3rd divisional game in just four weeks, while it is the Ravens first. Baltimore went into Cincinnati and beat the Bengals in Week 2, and now they go into the Dawg Pound to face a tough Cleveland defense.
Let's talk about the best NFL bets in this game!
Ravens vs Browns Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Cleveland Browns Stadium (Cleveland, OH)
- Date: Sunday, October 1st, 2023
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Betting Odds
Spread
- Ravens +2.5 (-105)
- Browns -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Ravens +125
- Browns -145
Total
- Over 41 (-110)
- Under 41 (-110)
Can Browns Halt Another AFC North Foe?
The Browns defense is a force this year.
And this is coming from someone who picked the Ravens to win this division in the preseason.
The Cleveland Browns lead all teams in Opponent Yards per play. They allowed just 3.2 yards per play from opposing offenses. This is almost an entire yard ahead of the 2nd ranked team who allows just 4.1 yards.
The defense in 2nd? The Baltimore Ravens.
On the offensive side of the ball, both squads are middle of the pack, gaining around 5 yards per play on the offensive end.
The Ravens are also coming off a home loss to the Indianapolis Colts, so motivation to bounce back will be at an all time high.
At the beginning of the season, I would've been all over the Ravens catching 2.5 points in Cleveland. After three weeks of NFL Action, I'm not 100% convinced anymore.
Ravens Offensive Woes
While the Ravens are 2-1, they could, and should, easily be 3-0. Baltimore led 19-16 and had the ball with 2 minutes remaining.
Baltimore went 3 and out and only chewed 15 seconds of clock. They ended up giving the ball back to the Colts, who tied the game, and eventually won it in overtime.
The Ravens punted on 4 of 7 second half possessions, and this Browns defense is much tougher than the Colts.
With the Browns being at home, I lean with them slightly, but will lay the juice on the ML to avoid anything flukey. It wouldn't surprise me if either team won this game, but it would surprise me if the Browns cover.
I think this is a tough game that's settled by less than a field goal.
I'll pay the juice and back Cleveland in the Dawg Pound.
The Pick: Browns ML (-145) BetOnline
Will We See Points Against These Defenses?
I've already stated how ferocious these two defenses are. They are Top 2 in yards per play, and they've held opponent's to under 20 points per game this year.
The Browns lead the league in this category, allowing just 10.7 PPG. The Ravens rank 8th so far, allowing just 18.3.
We've clearly got an incredibly low total on the board sitting at 41, and that just seems very fishy to me.
I'd be more comfortable taking the under if it was in the 43-45 range, yet I don't have the guts to take this over either.
I don't think both teams break 21 points here, but even a 24-17 finish pushes the total.
For that, I'll stay off this one and just root for the Browns to get it done at home.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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