NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions & Picks: Will Reddick’s Run End at Phoenix?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Mar 08, 2026, 10:32 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Last Sunday, Tyler Reddick created an exclusive club for himself by becoming the first driver in NASCAR Cup Series history to win the first three races in a season. Today, he will look to move into even rarer air with a win in the Straight Talk Wireless 500 at Phoenix Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1).
Though Reddick started on pole in last week's DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix, his task at Circuit of the Americas had an arguably higher degree of difficulty than his wins in the Daytona 500 and Autotrader 400.
That is because he had to contend with Shane van Gisbergen, who won the last five road/street races last season and was a heavy favorite to take the checkered flag at COTA, even after a so-so qualifying run.
But as he did at Daytona and Atlanta Motor Speedway, Reddick remained cool, calm, and collected, leading 58 of 95 laps and winning by nearly four seconds ahead of SVG, who was unable to make things interesting in the final laps.
At Phoenix Raceway, Reddick will look to become the first driver to win the first four races in a Cup Series season and just the ninth to do it overall. Most recently, Jimmie Johnson captured four straight wins at Martinsville, Atlanta, Texas, and Phoenix in 2007.
After starting on pole in each of the last two races, Reddick will start ninth in the Straight Talk Wireless 500, while three-time Cup Series champion Joey Logano will start on pole for the first time since last season's playoff race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
And at Lucky Rebel, one of the top online sportsbooks for betting on NASCAR, Reddick holds the ninth-best odds, well behind the Team Penske duo of Logano and race favorite Ryan Blaney.
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Straight Talk Wireless 500
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +300 | 25.00% | 20.74% |
| Joey Logano | +550 | 15.38% | 12.76% |
| Christopher Bell | +700 | 12.50% | 10.37% |
| Kyle Larson | +800 | 11.11% | 9.21% |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 | 9.09% | 7.54% |
| William Byron | +1000 | 9.09% | 7.54% |
| Austin Cindric | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.38% |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 | 5.88% | 4.88% |
| Tyler Reddick | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.95% |
| Carson Hocevar | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.19% |
| Josh Berry | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.19% |
| Chase Briscoe | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.67% |
| Chase Elliott | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.67% |
| Bubba Wallace | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.30% |
| Ty Gibbs | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.30% |
| Chris Buescher | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Connor Zilisch | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Kyle Busch | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Ryan Preece | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Brad Keselowski | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.23% |
| Michael McDowell | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.82% |
| Anthony Alfredo | +12500 | 0.79% | 0.65% |
| Austin Dillon | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.41% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.41% |
| Erik Jones | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.33% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.27% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.27% |
| Austin Hill | +40000 | 0.25% | 0.21% |
| Noah Gragson | +40000 | 0.25% | 0.21% |
| Todd Gilliland | +40000 | 0.25% | 0.21% |
| Zane Smith | +40000 | 0.25% | 0.21% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.17% |
| Cole Custer | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Riley Herbst | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Ty Dillon | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Cody Ware | +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
Straight Talk Wireless 500 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 2 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 3 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 4 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 6 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 9 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 10 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 12 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 13 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 14 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 15 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 16 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 18 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 21 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 22 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 23 | A. J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 24 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 25 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 27 | Austin Hill (33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 29 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 30 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 31 | Anthony Alfredo (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 33 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 35 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 36 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 37 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
Straight Talk Wireless 500 Predictions and Picks
Tyler Reddick to Finish in the Top 10 (+110 at Lucky Rebel)
Reddick's career results at Phoenix Raceway are not particularly fantastic. Entering the Straight Talk Wireless 500, Reddick has two top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes in 12 career races at this track.
However, it is worth noting that both top fives (third-place finishes in 2022 and 2023) and three of the top tens (the two third-place finishes and a 10th-place finish in 2024) are in this race.
Also, when he is in red-hot form, this is exceptional value for a fairly low bar. Plus odds for a top-10 finish by the guy who's won the last three races? Sign me up every time.
Denny Hamlin to Finish in the Top Five (+165 at Lucky Rebel)
In Hamlin's last ride around Phoenix Raceway, he produced one of the most dominant performances one could have hoped for with a championship on the line, only for a late caution and a questionable call for four tires set the stage for a crushing conclusion.
Last week, Hamlin recorded his first top-ten finish of the new season, following a 31st at Daytona and a 13th at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Will we see him return to the top five in the Straight Talk Wireless 500? History certainly bodes well for him. This will be his 21st start in this race, and his first 20 included a win (in 2011), nine top-five finishes, and 11 top-ten finishes.
Chase Elliott to Finish in the Top 10 (+125 at Lucky Rebel)
Elliott put in another solid shift last week, finishing seventh at COTA. Thus far this season, he, Reddick, and Bubba Wallace (10th, 8th, and 11th) are the only three drivers to finish in the top 11 in all three races.
Elliott hasn't won a lot of races in recent seasons, but he has been the picture of consistency. Since the start of the 2023 season, he has finished outside of the top 20 just 13 times in 104 races. For context involving his two championship-contending teammates, Kyle Larson has finished outside of the top 20 32 times in 110 races in that span, while William Byron has finished outside of the top 20 30 times in 111 races in that span.
With all of this in mind, as is the case with Reddick in his spot, taking Elliott (who will start 26th in the Straight Talk Wireless 500) to finish in the top 10 (which he has done in 53.3% of his Cup Series starts, including five of nine in this race) at these odds is just value you cannot pass up.
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