NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: Will Red-Hot Reddick Rule on the Road?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Mar 01, 2026, 2:08 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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In NASCAR Cup Series history, there have been 29 instances in which a driver won three consecutive races, most recently last season when Christopher Bell won at Atlanta, Austin, and Phoenix. However, none of those instances occurred in the first three races of a season. Today, Tyler Reddick will look to become the first driver to do so in the DuraMAX Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
After snatching a Daytona 500 win away from Chase Elliott, Reddick won last week's Autotrader 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, overcoming a late-race incident to become the first driver to win the season's first two races since Matt Kenseth in 2009.
Now, he will attempt to do something no one has done before and take the checkered flag three consecutive times to open a season.
To do so, he will have to win on a road course for the first time since he won this race in 2023, when it was known as the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. And he will have to hold off the current king of the road, Shane van Gisbergen, who is after an Austin sweep following his win in yesterday's O'Reilly Auto Parts Series race, the Focused Health 250.
But Reddick will at least start with the best seat in the house for the second week in a row. While he was on pole at Atlanta Motor Speedway due to qualifying being washed out, he procured pole honors for the DuraMAX Grand Prix with a fine qualifying run.
Reddick (1:37.760), Ross Chastain (1:37.897), Chase Briscoe (1:37.913), and Ryan Blaney (1:37.982) were the only four drivers to record a time inside a minute and 38 seconds. SVG, meanwhile, will only start 13th after recording a time of 1:38.464.
DuraMAX Grand Prix Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 3 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 5 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 6 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | A. J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 8 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 9 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 10 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 11 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 12 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 13 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 15 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 16 | Alex Bowman (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 18 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 20 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 21 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 22 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 23 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 24 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 25 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | Jesse Love (33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 29 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 30 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 31 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 32 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 33 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 35 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 36 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 37 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
Still, SVG is the man to beat according to Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, ahead of three former winners of the race (Reddick, 2022 winner Chastain, and Elliott, who won the inaugural Cup Series race at COTA in 2021) and Zilisch, who will be looking for a much better result today after a disappointing 21st-place finish yesterday.
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series DuraMAX Grand Prix
Odds from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability % | True Probability % (No Vig) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shane van Gisbergen | +105 | 48.78% | 40.22% |
| Tyler Reddick | +550 | 15.38% | 12.68% |
| Connor Zilisch | +800 | 11.11% | 9.16% |
| Ross Chastain | +800 | 11.11% | 9.16% |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.34% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.34% |
| Christopher Bell | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.34% |
| William Byron | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.34% |
| Kyle Larson | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.92% |
| Chase Briscoe | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.59% |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.17% |
| Michael McDowell | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.17% |
| Alex Bowman | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Chris Buescher | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Kyle Busch | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Ty Gibbs | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.62% |
| Carson Hocevar | +8000 | 1.23% | 1.01% |
| Austin Cindric | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.54% |
| Bubba Wallace | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.54% |
| Denny Hamlin | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.54% |
| Joey Logano | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.54% |
| Ryan Preece | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.33% |
| Brad Keselowski | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.27% |
| Todd Gilliland | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.27% |
| Zane Smith | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.27% |
| Austin Dillon | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Cole Custer | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Erik Jones | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Jesse Love | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Josh Berry | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Noah Gragson | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.11% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.08% |
| Ty Dillon | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.08% |
| Riley Herbst | +150000 | 0.07% | 0.05% |
| Cody Ware | +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% |
DuraMAX Grand Prix Predictions & Picks
Tyler Reddick to Finish in the Top Five (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
There is a reason why, even with the legends that have been a part of the sport, that someone has won three races in a row just 29 times (18 different drivers, including Rusty Wallace and Jeff Gordon three times each) and none in the first three races of the season.
The degree of difficulty is even higher for Reddick given the presence of SVG, who won five of six Cup Series road/street races last season and has a mastery of these courses beyond any other driver in NASCAR history.
So, even with how well Reddick has started the season, taking him to win the DuraMAX Grand Prix should not be your primary play today.
Instead, take what feels like a steal and back him for a top-five finish. As if his current form does not make this an easy decision, these are his results in the first five editions of this race: ninth, fifth, first, fifth, and third. These picks are never accompanied by a confidence rating, but if they were, the confidence level for this play would be at least a 9 out of 10.
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