2026 Daytona 500 Predictions & Picks: Byron Bids for Historic Three-Peat
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sat Feb 14, 2026, 10:00 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Since the Daytona 500 began in 1959, 44 different drivers have won the 67 editions of what has become one of the biggest races in motorsports. However, no one has won the race three consecutive times. Will we see a Daytona 500 first as NASCAR kicks off a new era in 2026?
Over the years, many legendary drivers have won the Daytona 500. Thirteen drivers have won it at least twice, led by Richard Petty's seven and Cale Yarborough's four.
However, Petty (1973, 1974) and Yarborough (1983, 1984) are two of only five drivers to win the race in consecutive seasons. That club also includes Sterling Marlin (1994, 1995), Denny Hamlin (2019, 2020), and the most recent entrant, William Byron (2024, 2025).
To date, the closest anyone has come to three straight Daytona 500 victories is Denny Hamlin, who finished fifth in 2021 after taking the checkered flag in 2019 and 2020.
Byron will get his crack at history this weekend but faces a tall task to pen an exclusive page for himself in the record books.
Late in the first of Thursday's two Duel races, Byron was caught up in a multi-car incident. Along with finishing 22nd in the field of 23 races, Byron will turn to a backup car for Sunday's showpiece. As a result, he will start 39th in the 41-car field.
Only seven drivers have won the Daytona 500 after starting 30th or worse. But Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks are not counting Byron out, as he maintains a prominent place in Daytona 500 odds ahead of the race, which will start an hour earlier (1:30 p.m. ET, live on FOX) than scheduled with weather in mind.
Sitting at the top, however, is Kyle Busch, starting on pole for the first time in 21 Daytona 500 starts. And not only is Busch looking to finally win his first Daytona 500, but he is also seeking his first Cup Series win since June 2023.
Odds to Win the 2026 Daytona 500
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, February 14, 2026.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability | Potential Profit ($100 Stake) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | +1000 | 9.09% | 7.26% | $1,000 |
| Joey Logano | +1100 | 8.33% | 6.65% | $1,100 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 | 8.33% | 6.65% | $1,100 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.14% | $1,200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | 6.67% | 5.32% | $1,400 |
| Austin Cindric | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.20% | $1,800 |
| Kyle Larson | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.20% | $1,800 |
| William Byron | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.20% | $1,800 |
| Alex Bowman | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.80% | $2,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.80% | $2,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2000 | 4.76% | 3.80% | $2,000 |
| Christopher Bell | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.47% | $2,200 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.07% | $2,500 |
| Carson Hocevar | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.07% | $2,500 |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.07% | $2,500 |
| Ryan Preece | +2800 | 3.45% | 2.75% | $2,800 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.35% | $3,300 |
| Tyler Reddick | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.35% | $3,300 |
| Josh Berry | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.22% | $3,500 |
| Michael McDowell | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.22% | $3,500 |
| Ross Chastain | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.22% | $3,500 |
| Connor Zilisch | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.95% | $4,000 |
| Erik Jones | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.95% | $4,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +4000 | 2.44% | 1.95% | $4,000 |
| Austin Dillon | +4500 | 2.17% | 1.73% | $4,500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.57% | $5,000 |
| Justin Allgaier | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.57% | $5,000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.57% | $5,000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.31% | $6,000 |
| Ty Dillon | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.31% | $6,000 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.19% | $6,600 |
| Cole Custer | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.19% | $6,600 |
| Noah Gragson | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.19% | $6,600 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.19% | $6,600 |
| Zane Smith | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.19% | $6,600 |
| Corey Heim | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.98% | $8,000 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.98% | $8,000 |
| Riley Herbst | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.98% | $8,000 |
| Cody Ware | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.79% | $10,000 |
| B.J. McLeod | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.32% | $25,000 |
| Casey Mears | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.32% | $25,000 |
Starting Lineup for the 2026 Daytona 500
Previous Daytona 500 winners are noted in bold.
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team & Manufacturer |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 2 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 3 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 4 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 6 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 8 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 9 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 10 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 11 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 12 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 13 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 15 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 16 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Casey Mears (66) | Garage 66 (Ford) |
| 18 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 19 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 20 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 21 | Alex Bowman (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 22 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 23 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 24 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 25 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 26 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 27 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 28 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 29 | Corey Heim (67) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 30 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 31 | Jimmie Johnson (84) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 33 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 35 | A.J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 36 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 37 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | B.J. McLeod (78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 39 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 40 | Justin Allgaier (40) | JR Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 41 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
Predictions and Picks for the 2026 Daytona 500
Starting Grid Position of Daytona 500 Winner – Over 14.5 (-120 at Lucky Rebel)
In Daytona 500 history, only 14 of 67 winners have come from 15th or worse to win.
Recent history is much more favorable, however, as four of the previous six winners—Hamlin from 39th in 2020, McDowell from 17th in 2021, Stenhouse from 31st in 2023, and Byron from 18th in 2024—started 15th or worse.
With Bowman (the 2024 runner-up), Hamlin, Reddick (last year's runner-up), Wallace (a two-time runner-up in 2018 and 2022), Cindric (the 2022 Daytona 500 winner), Chastain, Byron, and Buescher (a summer winner at Daytona) all starting outside the top 15, don't be surprised to see the recent trend continue.
In fact, going even further and playing the over 19.5 (+120 at Lucky Rebel) is a worthwhile option as all eight of those drivers (as well as Zilisch) will start 21st or worse.
William Byron to Finish in the Top 10 (+120 at Lucky Rebel)
In his first six Daytona 500 starts, Byron finished 23rd, 21st, 40th, 26th, 28th, and 34th. But after making the right moves late to win the sport's biggest race each of the past two years, it's hard to count out the No. 24 even with his unfavorable starting position.
Even if he can't pull off a historic three-peat, there's a good chance we will see him somewhere near the front at the finish.
Bubba Wallace to Finish in the Top 10 (+160 at Lucky Rebel)
Wallace's best Daytona 500 finishes have all come in even-numbered years: second in 2018, 15th in 2020, second in 2022, and fifth in 2024. Will that trend continue in 2026? Wallace has a solid overall history at Daytona (six top 10s and 12 top-15 finishes in 17 Cup Series starts), and many of his best Cup Series results have come on superspeedways.
A strong result at Daytona could serve as a springboard to a successful season for Wallace, and I like his chances to achieve that.
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