NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450 Predictions & Picks: Will Blaney Go Back-to-Back at North Wilkesboro?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Update: Sun Jul 19, 2026, 9:55 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450 Predictions & Picks cover (North Wilkesboro Speedway)

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Just when things took one turn with the race for the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship, they took a sharp left at Atlanta Motor Speedway. And more twists could be ahead today as Cup cars race competitively at North Wilkesboro Speedway for the first time in three decades in the Window World 450 (7 p.m. ET, TNT).

Entering last week's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Denny Hamlin was 44 points clear of Tyler Reddick and 113 points clear of Ryan Blaney at the top of the standings.

But with Blaney, who started on pole, winning Stage 1 and Stage 2 and taking his second race victory of the season in a wild overtime finish, what looked like a two-horse duel is firmly a three-horse race with six regular season races remaining.

With qualifying for today's race rained out, Blaney will start on pole for the second straight week and the third time this season.

Blaney went into last week's race as the favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, and he enters the Window World 450 as a top contender. But will he be able to outrun Hamlin, Reddick, and In-Season Challenge semifinal opponent/second-place specialist Christopher Bell?

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Odds to Win the NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450

Odds are from Lucky Rebel, where you can find odds for every NASCAR Cup Series race. Try them out today and get a 125% bonus up to $1250 and 50 casino free spins on your first deposit.

Odds Implied Probability True Probability Driver(s)
+300 25.00% 17.85% Christopher Bell
+450 18.18% 12.99% Ryan Blaney
+500 16.67% 11.90% Denny Hamlin
+800 11.11% 7.94% Joey Logano, Kyle Larson
+1200 7.69% 5.49% Ty Gibbs
+1400 6.67% 4.76% Chase Elliott
+1600 5.88% 4.20% Tyler Reddick, William Byron
+2200 4.35% 3.11% Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe
+3300 2.94% 2.10% Bubba Wallace
+4000 2.44% 1.74% Chris Buescher
+5000 1.96% 1.40% Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece
+6600 1.49% 1.07% Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski
+8000 1.23% 0.88% Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez
+10000 0.99% 0.71% Erik Jones
+12500 0.79% 0.57% Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen
+20000 0.50% 0.36% Michael McDowell, Zane Smith
+25000 0.40% 0.28% Connor Zilisch, John Hunter Nemechek, Todd Gilliland
+30000 0.33% 0.24% AJ Allmendinger
+35000 0.28% 0.20% Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Riley Herbst
+40000 0.25% 0.18% Austin Hill
+50000 0.20% 0.14% Noah Gragson
+75000 0.13% 0.10% Cole Custer
+100000 0.10% 0.07% Ty Dillon
+250000 0.04% 0.03% Cody Ware
+500000 0.02% 0.01% Chad Finchum

Window World 450 Starting Lineup

Position Driver (#) Team Manufacturer
1 Ryan Blaney (#12) Team Penske Ford
2 Ty Gibbs (#54) Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
3 Christopher Bell (#20) Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
4 Carson Hocevar (#77) Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
5 Tyler Reddick (#45) 23XI Racing Toyota
6 Erik Jones (#43) Legacy Motor Club Toyota
7 Denny Hamlin (#11) Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
8 Shane van Gisbergen (#97) Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
9 Chris Buescher (#17) RFK Racing Ford
10 Chase Elliott (#9) Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
11 Joey Logano (#22) Team Penske Ford
12 Austin Dillon (#3) Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
13 Ross Chastain (#1) Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
14 Austin Cindric (#2) Team Penske Ford
15 William Byron (#24) Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
16 Michael McDowell (#71) Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
17 Daniel Suárez (#7) Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
18 Todd Gilliland (#34) Front Row Motorsports Ford
19 John Hunter Nemechek (#42) Legacy Motor Club Toyota
20 Cole Custer (#41) Haas Factory Team Chevrolet
21 Ryan Preece (#60) RFK Racing Ford
22 Ty Dillon (#10) Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
23 Brad Keselowski (#6) RFK Racing Ford
24 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) Hyak Motorsports Chevrolet
25 Alex Bowman (#48) Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
26 Bubba Wallace (#23) 23XI Racing Toyota
27 Kyle Larson (#5) Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet
28 Josh Berry (#21) Wood Brothers Racing Ford
29 Zane Smith (#38) Front Row Motorsports Ford
30 Chase Briscoe (#19) Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota
31 Noah Gragson (#4) Front Row Motorsports Ford
32 Connor Zilisch (#88) Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet
33 Austin Hill (#33) Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet
34 Riley Herbst (#35) 23XI Racing Toyota
35 A. J. Allmendinger (#16) Kaulig Racing Chevrolet
36 Cody Ware (#51) Rick Ware Racing Chevrolet
37 Chad Finchum (#66) Garage 66 Ford

Window World 450 Predictions and Picks

Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+145 at Lucky Rebel)

Fortune has not favored Larson in the last two weeks. He spun out while running well in the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway and wound up 34th, and he was scored in the same spot last week after crashing out at the end of Stage 2 while running well again.

Larson has now finished outside of the top 30 six times already this season, which is why he isn't a factor in the regular season championship race.

But there's something to be said for the positive positions he often finds himself in, even if he doesn't end up converting them into wins or strong results. Had things gone just a bit differently in the last two weeks and in the final laps at Nashville, Larson could be on a run of eight consecutive top-five finishes.

In his time with Hendrick Motorsports, Larson hasn't made a habit of finishing outside of the top five or top ten very often, and if he can run an incident-free race, I like his chances to be near the front today. In his last 20 short-track starts, Larson has four wins, 12 top-five finishes, and 16 top 10s.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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