NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450 Predictions & Picks: Will Blaney Go Back-to-Back at North Wilkesboro?

Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sun Jul 19, 2026, 9:55 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes

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Just when things took one turn with the race for the NASCAR Cup Series regular season championship, they took a sharp left at Atlanta Motor Speedway. And more twists could be ahead today as Cup cars race competitively at North Wilkesboro Speedway for the first time in three decades in the Window World 450 (7 p.m. ET, TNT).
Entering last week's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Denny Hamlin was 44 points clear of Tyler Reddick and 113 points clear of Ryan Blaney at the top of the standings.
But with Blaney, who started on pole, winning Stage 1 and Stage 2 and taking his second race victory of the season in a wild overtime finish, what looked like a two-horse duel is firmly a three-horse race with six regular season races remaining.
With qualifying for today's race rained out, Blaney will start on pole for the second straight week and the third time this season.
Blaney went into last week's race as the favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, and he enters the Window World 450 as a top contender. But will he be able to outrun Hamlin, Reddick, and In-Season Challenge semifinal opponent/second-place specialist Christopher Bell?
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Odds to Win the NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450
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| Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability | Driver(s) |
| +300 | 25.00% | 17.85% | Christopher Bell |
| +450 | 18.18% | 12.99% | Ryan Blaney |
| +500 | 16.67% | 11.90% | Denny Hamlin |
| +800 | 11.11% | 7.94% | Joey Logano, Kyle Larson |
| +1200 | 7.69% | 5.49% | Ty Gibbs |
| +1400 | 6.67% | 4.76% | Chase Elliott |
| +1600 | 5.88% | 4.20% | Tyler Reddick, William Byron |
| +2200 | 4.35% | 3.11% | Carson Hocevar, Chase Briscoe |
| +3300 | 2.94% | 2.10% | Bubba Wallace |
| +4000 | 2.44% | 1.74% | Chris Buescher |
| +5000 | 1.96% | 1.40% | Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Ryan Preece |
| +6600 | 1.49% | 1.07% | Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski |
| +8000 | 1.23% | 0.88% | Austin Dillon, Daniel Suarez |
| +10000 | 0.99% | 0.71% | Erik Jones |
| +12500 | 0.79% | 0.57% | Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen |
| +20000 | 0.50% | 0.36% | Michael McDowell, Zane Smith |
| +25000 | 0.40% | 0.28% | Connor Zilisch, John Hunter Nemechek, Todd Gilliland |
| +30000 | 0.33% | 0.24% | AJ Allmendinger |
| +35000 | 0.28% | 0.20% | Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Riley Herbst |
| +40000 | 0.25% | 0.18% | Austin Hill |
| +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% | Noah Gragson |
| +75000 | 0.13% | 0.10% | Cole Custer |
| +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% | Ty Dillon |
| +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% | Cody Ware |
| +500000 | 0.02% | 0.01% | Chad Finchum |
Window World 450 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (#) | Team | Manufacturer |
| 1 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | Team Penske | Ford |
| 2 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 3 | Christopher Bell (#20) | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 4 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 5 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| 6 | Erik Jones (#43) | Legacy Motor Club | Toyota |
| 7 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 8 | Shane van Gisbergen (#97) | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet |
| 9 | Chris Buescher (#17) | RFK Racing | Ford |
| 10 | Chase Elliott (#9) | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 11 | Joey Logano (#22) | Team Penske | Ford |
| 12 | Austin Dillon (#3) | Richard Childress Racing | Chevrolet |
| 13 | Ross Chastain (#1) | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet |
| 14 | Austin Cindric (#2) | Team Penske | Ford |
| 15 | William Byron (#24) | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 16 | Michael McDowell (#71) | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 17 | Daniel Suárez (#7) | Spire Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 18 | Todd Gilliland (#34) | Front Row Motorsports | Ford |
| 19 | John Hunter Nemechek (#42) | Legacy Motor Club | Toyota |
| 20 | Cole Custer (#41) | Haas Factory Team | Chevrolet |
| 21 | Ryan Preece (#60) | RFK Racing | Ford |
| 22 | Ty Dillon (#10) | Kaulig Racing | Chevrolet |
| 23 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | RFK Racing | Ford |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | Hyak Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 25 | Alex Bowman (#48) | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 26 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| 27 | Kyle Larson (#5) | Hendrick Motorsports | Chevrolet |
| 28 | Josh Berry (#21) | Wood Brothers Racing | Ford |
| 29 | Zane Smith (#38) | Front Row Motorsports | Ford |
| 30 | Chase Briscoe (#19) | Joe Gibbs Racing | Toyota |
| 31 | Noah Gragson (#4) | Front Row Motorsports | Ford |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | Trackhouse Racing | Chevrolet |
| 33 | Austin Hill (#33) | Richard Childress Racing | Chevrolet |
| 34 | Riley Herbst (#35) | 23XI Racing | Toyota |
| 35 | A. J. Allmendinger (#16) | Kaulig Racing | Chevrolet |
| 36 | Cody Ware (#51) | Rick Ware Racing | Chevrolet |
| 37 | Chad Finchum (#66) | Garage 66 | Ford |
Window World 450 Predictions and Picks
Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+145 at Lucky Rebel)
Fortune has not favored Larson in the last two weeks. He spun out while running well in the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway and wound up 34th, and he was scored in the same spot last week after crashing out at the end of Stage 2 while running well again.
Larson has now finished outside of the top 30 six times already this season, which is why he isn't a factor in the regular season championship race.
But there's something to be said for the positive positions he often finds himself in, even if he doesn't end up converting them into wins or strong results. Had things gone just a bit differently in the last two weeks and in the final laps at Nashville, Larson could be on a run of eight consecutive top-five finishes.
In his time with Hendrick Motorsports, Larson hasn't made a habit of finishing outside of the top five or top ten very often, and if he can run an incident-free race, I like his chances to be near the front today. In his last 20 short-track starts, Larson has four wins, 12 top-five finishes, and 16 top 10s.
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