NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 Predictions & Picks: Will Saturday Speed Lead to Sunday Success for Penske?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sun Jul 12, 2026, 6:41 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season has largely belonged to Toyota, while it has largely been a forgettable season for Ford. But things have not been all bad for Ford, and the outlook for the second half of the season could very well be much more positive after today's Quaker State 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway (7 p.m. ET, TNT).
Last week, a Toyota car won for the 12th time in 19 races this season, as Chase Briscoe held off teammate Christopher Bell in the final laps of the eero 400 for his first win of the season. It was a 1-2-3 day for Joe Gibbs Racing at Chicagoland Speedway, as Denny Hamlin came in third to increase his lead atop the points.
For a while now, the regular season championship race has looked like a two-horse tussle between Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick. That remains the case, but with seven races remaining in the regular season, Ryan Blaney remains in the equation mathematically.
At 113 points behind Hamlin and 69 behind Reddick, a lot would need to happen for Blaney to find his way to top spot, even with Reddick having finished 35th or worse three times in his last five races.
But the door remains cracked open, and it could open even wider today if Blaney can convert his pole position into a Quaker State 400 win.
Blaney's pole-winning run was part of a strong qualifying session for Team Penske, with teammate Joey Logano coming in a close second and Austin Cindric slotting in eighth.
Will we see the Penske trio pick up potentially significant results today? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, all three are top contenders to finish at or near the front.
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Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400
Odds are from Lucky Rebel, where you can find odds for every NASCAR Cup Series race. Try them out today and get a 125% bonus up to $1250 and 50 casino free spins on your first deposit.
| Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability | Driver(s) |
| +800 | 11.11% | 8.32% | Ryan Blaney |
| +1000 | 9.09% | 6.81% | Joey Logano, Kyle Larson |
| +1200 | 7.69% | 5.76% | Chase Elliott |
| +1400 | 6.67% | 4.99% | Carson Hocevar, Tyler Reddick |
| +1600 | 5.88% | 4.41% | William Byron |
| +1800 | 5.26% | 3.94% | Austin Cindric, Brad Keselowski, Bubba Wallace, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin |
| +2000 | 4.76% | 3.57% | Chris Buescher |
| +2500 | 3.85% | 2.88% | Ross Chastain |
| +2800 | 3.45% | 2.58% | Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez, Ty Gibbs |
| +4000 | 2.44% | 1.83% | Ryan Preece |
| +5000 | 1.96% | 1.47% | Erik Jones, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zane Smith |
| +6600 | 1.49% | 1.12% | AJ Allmendinger, Connor Zilisch, Josh Berry, Shane van Gisbergen, Todd Gilliland |
| +7500 | 1.32% | 0.99% | Riley Herbst, Ty Dillon |
| +8000 | 1.23% | 0.92% | Austin Dillon, Austin Hill, John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson |
| +15000 | 0.66% | 0.50% | Cole Custer |
| +25000 | 0.40% | 0.30% | Cody Ware |
| +50000 | 0.20% | 0.15% | BJ McLeod, Chad Finchum |
Quaker State 400 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (#) | Team (Manufacturer) |
| 1 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 2 | Joey Logano (#22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 3 | Kyle Larson (#5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 4 | Austin Dillon (#3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Daniel Suárez (#7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 6 | Alex Bowman (#48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | Chase Elliott (#9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 8 | Austin Cindric (#2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 9 | Ross Chastain (#1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 10 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 11 | Erik Jones (#43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 12 | Shane van Gisbergen (#97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 13 | Chris Buescher (#17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 14 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 15 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 16 | Ty Dillon (#10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Josh Berry (#21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 18 | Michael McDowell (#71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Ryan Preece (#60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe (#19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 21 | Todd Gilliland (#34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 22 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 23 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 24 | John Hunter Nemechek (#42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 25 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | William Byron (#24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 27 | A. J. Allmendinger (#16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 29 | Riley Herbst (#35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 30 | Austin Hill (i) (#33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 31 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 32 | Christopher Bell (#20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 33 | Cole Custer (#41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Zane Smith (#38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 35 | Cody Ware (#51) | Rick Ware Racing (Ford) |
| 36 | Noah Gragson (#4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 37 | B. J. McLeod (#78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | Chad Finchum (#66) | Garage 66 (Ford) |
Quaker State 400 Predictions and Picks
Ryan Blaney to Finish in the Top Five (+180 at Lucky Rebel)
Blaney finished outside of the top five in his last two Atlanta starts, but he has overall had a lot of success at this track. He won there in 2021 and has seven top-five finishes and 10 top-10 finishes in 16 career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, with all seven top fives coming in his last dozen starts.
Blaney has been the bright spot in a difficult season for Team Penske, winning at Phoenix and registering 14 top-10 finishes in the first 19 races. That consistency has translated into just three top-five finishes to this point, but these are odds you cannot pass up for the polesitter.
Chase Elliott to Finish in the Top 10 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
Elliott is one of three Hendrick Motorsports drivers to produce a solid result in Quaker State 400 qualifying, and he is well-placed to end a run of five consecutive finishes outside of the top 10.
These are also odds that are too good to pass up, given Elliott's history at Atlanta Motor Speedway. No active driver with 15 or more starts at the track has a better average finish than Elliott's 11.3, which includes two wins (in this race in 2022 and last year), three top fives, and nine top 10s.
Daniel Suarez to Finish in the Top 10 (+175 at Lucky Rebel)
The Coca-Cola 600 winner has just five top-10 finishes this season, but he enters this weekend 11th in the standings because he has racked up a lot of top-15 finishes and largely avoided the trouble that has tripped up many drivers ahead or behind him in the standings.
One of those top fives came in the first Atlanta race this season, where he finished fifth, one spot behind teammate Carson Hocevar.
It was his first top-five finish for Spire Motorsports, and it continued a good run of results at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He has seven top-10 finishes in 15 career starts at the track, including six in his last nine.
Suarez has converted just one of his previous six top-10 qualifying runs into a top-10 race finish, but I like his chances to convert this one into a result that will move him closer to securing a place in the Chase.
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