2026 NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 Predictions & Picks: Three Drivers to Back at Indy
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Jul 26, 2026, 5:19 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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While kissing the hallowed bricks at Indianapolis Motor Speedway is now a major part of the Indianapolis 500 winner's celebrations each year, the tradition actually originated in NASCAR, when Dale Jarrett and crew chief Todd Parrott did so after the 1996 Brickyard 400. Thirty years since that initial memorable moment, someone will etch their own place in the Indy history books as the 28th edition of the event (2 p.m. ET, TNT).
This year's Brickyard 400 comes with the regular season championship race (yeah, yeah, there is no more regular season championship, but just like X is still Twitter, the No. 1 seed winner is still the regular season champion) finely poised with five races left until the Chase for the Cup cutoff.
Last week, Joey Logano boosted his chances of locking down one of the 16 spots as he took the checkered flag in the Window World 450, his first win since May of last year.
Denny Hamlin wasn't able to haul down Logano at North Wilkesboro, but courtesy of 16 stage points and a runner-up finish, Hamlin extended his lead in the standings to 68 over Tyler Reddick (who finished 30th) and 87 over Ryan Blaney, who started on pole but finished only 11th.
Hamlin will start fifth in his quest to tick one of the last unchecked boxes on his resume, but at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the points leader is the Brickyard 400 favorite, with Kyle Larson, Reddick, polesitter Carson Hocevar, and Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, and Chase Briscoe also considered top contenders.
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Odds to Win the NASCAR Cup Series Window World 450
Odds are from Lucky Rebel, where you can find odds for every NASCAR Cup Series race. Try them out today and get a 125% bonus up to $1250 and 50 casino free spins on your first deposit.
| Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability | Driver(s) |
| +350 | 22.22% | 16.89% | Denny Hamlin |
| +500 | 16.67% | 12.67% | Kyle Larson |
| +650 | 13.33% | 10.14% | Tyler Reddick |
| +1000 | 9.09% | 6.91% | Carson Hocevar, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs |
| +1200 | 7.69% | 5.84% | Chase Briscoe |
| +1400 | 6.67% | 5.07% | William Byron |
| +1600 | 5.88% | 4.47% | Ryan Blaney |
| +2000 | 4.76% | 3.62% | Bubba Wallace |
| +2500 | 3.85% | 2.92% | Chase Elliott, Chris Buescher, Corey Heim |
| +3300 | 2.94% | 2.24% | Daniel Suárez |
| +4000 | 2.44% | 1.85% | Erik Jones, Joey Logano |
| +6600 | 1.49% | 1.13% | Brad Keselowski, Ross Chastain |
| +8000 | 1.23% | 0.94% | Alex Bowman, Austin Cindric, Michael McDowell |
| +10000 | 0.99% | 0.75% | John Hunter Nemechek |
| +15000 | 0.66% | 0.50% | A. J. Allmendinger, Ryan Preece, Shane van Gisbergen |
| +25000 | 0.40% | 0.30% | Riley Herbst |
| +40000 | 0.25% | 0.19% | Austin Dillon, Cole Custer, Connor Zilisch, Josh Berry, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Todd Gilliland, Zane Smith |
| +75000 | 0.13% | 0.10% | Austin Hill, Noah Gragson |
| +100000 | 0.10% | 0.08% | Ty Dillon |
| +250000 | 0.04% | 0.03% | Casey Mears, Cody Ware, Daniel Dye |
Brickyard 400 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (#) | Team (Manufacturer) |
| 1 | Carson Hocevar (#77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 2 | Daniel Suárez (#7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 3 | Tyler Reddick (#45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 4 | Ty Gibbs (#54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 5 | Denny Hamlin (#11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 6 | Michael McDowell (#71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 7 | Corey Heim (#67) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 8 | Alex Bowman (#48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 9 | A. J. Allmendinger (#16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 10 | Kyle Larson (#5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 11 | Chase Briscoe (#19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 12 | Cole Custer (#41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 13 | Ryan Blaney (#12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 14 | Erik Jones (#43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 15 | Chris Buescher (#17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 16 | Brad Keselowski (#6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 17 | John Hunter Nemechek (#42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 18 | Riley Herbst (#35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 19 | Joey Logano (#22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 20 | Austin Dillon (#3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 21 | William Byron (#24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 22 | Ross Chastain (#1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 23 | Christopher Bell (#20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 24 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 25 | Shane van Gisbergen (#97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | Josh Berry (#21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | Chase Elliott (#9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Ty Dillon (#10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 29 | Bubba Wallace (#23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 30 | Zane Smith (#38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 31 | Connor Zilisch (#88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | Austin Hill (#33) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 33 | Noah Gragson (#4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 34 | Ryan Preece (#60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 35 | Austin Cindric (#2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 36 | Todd Gilliland (#34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 37 | Cody Ware (#51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | Casey Mears (#62) | Beard Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 39 | Daniel Dye (#78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
Brickyard 400 Predictions and Picks
Alex Bowman to Finish in the Top 10 (+215 at Lucky Rebel)
This week, Bowman announced that he will race the 2027 season with Hendrick Motorsports then retire from full-time competition. It is not a surprising decision, given the speculation amid all of the things that Bowman has had to deal with in recent years, including a bout of vertigo that took him out of competition for four races this year.
Still, it is notable, given that he will be just 34 at the end of next season, and because he has been such a fixture of the playoffs throughout his time with HMS, you can't help but wonder how well he could have done were he healthy.
Bowman enters the Brickyard 400 29th in points, 203 out of a Chase spot. In the previous playoffs format, he could have been in position to get in with a win, but under the Chase format, it would take a miracle for him to land in the top 16 at this point.
Still, the opportunity is there to finish this season on a high note, and after posting the best qualifying run of the HMS quartet, I like his chances to come away with a good result as he officially enters the closing chapter of his Cup Series career. In last year's Brickyard 400, Bowman finished ninth after starting 21st, his first top 10 in this race.
Bubba Wallace to Finish in the Top 10 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
Wallace won last year's Brickyard 400, and in five starts in this race, he has three top-five finishes and four top-10 finishes.
He will start only 29th, which is disappointing given where his 23XI Racing teammates will start. But at intermediate and large oval tracks, Wallace has the eighth-best average finish since 2023. During that time, he has 19 top-10 finishes in 41 starts. The only drivers to have more top 10s at these tracks are all either former Cup Series champions or drivers who were in the Championship 4 at least once.
Ryan Blaney to Finish in the Top 10 (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
The Brickyard 400 is also the finale of the In-Season Challenge, and Blaney and Todd Gilliland are the two drivers fighting for the trophy and a cool million.
Notably, Gilliland has finished sixth in the Brickyard 400 both times since NASCAR's Indy stop returned to the oval. Blaney is one of the four other drivers who have also done so (Blaney, Wallace, Christopher Bell, and Kyle Larson), and with his current run of form (11 straight finishes of 11th or better and 15 top-10 finishes in 21 races this season), it feels like a steal to get Blaney at these odds.
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