NASCAR Cup Series Autotrader 400 Predictions & Picks: Take This Top Trio at Atlanta
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Feb 22, 2026, 10:29 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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This week is the calm after the storm for the NASCAR Cup Series, as the series moves to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the second race of the season. But even though the stakes are not as high for today's Autotrader 400 (3:00 p.m. ET, FOX) as they were for the Daytona 500, it does not mean we will not see plenty of drama.
While the Daytona 500 is ultimately just one race in a 36-race season, it is the sport's biggest race and carries its own special level of importance, intensity, and intrigue.
Where the likes of Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Zane Smith, and Riley Herbst found themselves near the front last Sunday, they may not today.
With season-long consistency now holding increased significance due to the return of the Chase for the Cup, the race for the checkered flag at Atlanta Motor Speedway will feature more controlled chaos. That said, with an extra 15 points now on offer for the winner, victories still provide a valuable opportunity to establish some space in the season standings.
Last week, those extra points went to Tyler Reddick, who picked the finest of times to win for the first time since the Round of 8 playoff race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2024.
Due to qualifying being washed out, Reddick will start up front in the Autotrader 400, with three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Joey Logano joining him on the front row.
Reddick is not considered one of the race favorites according to Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but Logano is, as well as Ryan Blaney and Peach State native Chase Elliott, who had a hand and a half on the Daytona 500 winner's trophy before Reddick snatched it for himself with the finish line in sight.
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Autotrader 400
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability % | True Probability % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | +1000 | 9.09% | 8.25% |
| Joey Logano | +1000 | 9.09% | 8.25% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1000 | 9.09% | 8.25% |
| Kyle Larson | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.99% |
| Austin Cindric | +1400 | 6.67% | 6.07% |
| Denny Hamlin | +1600 | 5.88% | 5.35% |
| William Byron | +1600 | 5.88% | 5.35% |
| Brad Keselowski | +1800 | 5.26% | 4.79% |
| Chase Briscoe | +2000 | 4.76% | 4.34% |
| Christopher Bell | +2000 | 4.76% | 4.34% |
| Ross Chastain | +2000 | 4.76% | 4.34% |
| Bubba Wallace | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.97% |
| Carson Hocevar | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.97% |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.51% |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.51% |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 | 3.85% | 3.51% |
| Kyle Busch | +2800 | 3.45% | 3.15% |
| Daniel Suarez | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.69% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.69% |
| Ryan Preece | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.69% |
| Josh Berry | +3500 | 2.78% | 2.54% |
| Connor Zilisch | +4000 | 2.44% | 2.23% |
| Michael McDowell | +4500 | 2.22% | 2.03% |
| Austin Dillon | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.79% |
| Erik Jones | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.79% |
| Todd Gilliland | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.79% |
| Ty Gibbs | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.79% |
| AJ Allmendinger | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.50% |
| Noah Gragson | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.50% |
| Zane Smith | +6000 | 1.64% | 1.50% |
| Cole Custer | +8000 | 1.23% | 1.13% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +8000 | 1.23% | 1.13% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +8000 | 1.23% | 1.13% |
| Riley Herbst | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.91% |
| Ty Dillon | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.91% |
| Cody Ware | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.60% |
| BJ McLeod | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.36% |
| JJ Yeley | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.36% |
Starting Lineup for the Autotrader 400
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 3 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 4 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 6 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 7 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 8 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 9 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 10 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 11 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 12 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 13 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 15 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 16 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 18 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | A. J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 20 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 21 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 22 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 23 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 24 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 25 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 26 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 29 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 30 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 31 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 32 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 33 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 35 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 36 | Alex Bowman (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 37 | B. J. McLeod (78) | Live Fast Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 38 | J. J. Yeley (44) | NY Racing Team (Chevrolet) |
Autotrader 400 Predictions and Picks
William Byron to Finish in the Top Ten (+105 at Lucky Rebel)
Byron somehow ended up in contention for a historic Daytona 500 three-peat, but his chances were ended when he found himself in the wrong place at the wrong time in part of the last lap chaos. All things considered, a 12th-place finish can be seen as a positive given what his day at Daytona included, but he will be after a much better result in the Autotrader 400.
Byron owns two Cup Series wins at Atlanta Motor Speedway, one in this race in 2022 and a win in the summer race in 2023. Those are his only two top-five finishes there and two of just four top-ten finishes there, so he doesn't have the same mastery of Atlanta as he does other tracks. However, these odds are too good to pass up, as you will not often get him at this number for a top-ten finish.
Ryan Blaney to Finish in the Top Five (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
Blaney won this race in 2021, and though a second Atlanta win has eluded him to this point, he is a fixture near the front in races here. In 15 career Cup Series races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Blaney has seven top-five finishes and nine top-ten finishes. In the last two editions of what is now the Autotrader 400, Blaney finished second in 2024 and fourth last year.
Chase Elliott to Finish in the Top Five (+200 at Lucky Rebel)
Elliott has yet to win this race, but he does own two wins in the summer race, one in 2022 and the other last season. Overall, he has just one other top-five finish at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but he has nine top tens in 14 races there. Last Sunday's finish may play in his mind for some time, but he can put some of that disappointment behind him with a strong result in the Autotrader 400. Look for him to do just that.
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