NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400 Predictions & Picks: Bell or Bust in Vegas?

Las Vegas has been a popular place this week for March Madness hopefuls with the Mountain West, WAC, and West Coast Conference tournaments all taking place there. All of those are now done and dusted, but the high-octane action continues today with the fourth race of the NASCAR Cup Series season, the Pennzoil 400 (4 p.m. ET, FS1).

Last week, Tyler Reddick's historic season-opening run came to an end at Phoenix Raceway. Chasing a fourth consecutive victory, Reddick managed "only" an eighth-place finish in the Straight Talk Wireless 500 while Ryan Blaney claimed his 18^th career NASCAR Cup Series win.

Had there been another lap or three, a different outcome may have transpired, as Christopher Bell, who finished 0.399 seconds behind in second, had four fresh tires and was charging hard and closing in rapidly when the checkered flag waved.

Bell missed out last Sunday, but that near-miss may have given him some extra juice for this week. The No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota will start up front today after earning his first pole since the spring Martinsville race last season.

Bell's chart-topping qualifying run was part of an outstanding afternoon for JGR. Bell will be joined on the front row by Denny Hamlin, who had his first top-five finish of the season last week, while Ty Gibbs, who is coming off consecutive fourth-place finishes, will start third. The only JGR driver to not excel in qualifying was Chase Briscoe, who will start 18^th.

But despite JGR's representation up front, Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks see someone else as the race favorite. That would be reigning Cup Series champion Kyle Larson, who will start fifth and share the third row with Blaney.

Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Pennzoil 400

Odds are from Lucky Rebel.

Pennzoil 400 Starting Lineup

Pennzoil 400 Predictions and Picks

Christopher Bell to Finish in the Top Five (-125 at Lucky Rebel)

This goes against my typical predilections, as top-five bets that aren't at plus odds are not the most ideal move. However, recent overall form and his form at this track override that in this instance.

In his last six Las Vegas starts, Bell has four top-five finishes. Three of those are in the fall race, but after coming in third and second in the last two weeks, I fully expect to see him at or near the front at the end of today's Pennzoil 400.

William Byron to Finish in the Top Five (+105 at Lucky Rebel)

At Phoenix Raceway, Byron picked up his first top-ten finish of the season as he came in seventh. This week, his first top five of the season could and should be in the cards.

Byron is the only former Pennzoil 400 winner among this trio of picks, as he won the race in 2023. That victory, one of his 16 career Cup Series wins, is one of three top-five finishes he has recorded in his last five starts in this race. Add in top tens in the other two, and he has an average finish of 5.6 in that stretch. That all points to a positive day for the No. 24 car.

Ross Chastain to Finish in the Top 10 (+105 at Lucky Rebel)

Chastain finished third in the Autotrader 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, but the last two weeks were forgettable, as he finished 35^th in the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas and 28^th at Phoenix Raceway.

But he should like his chances to have a strong showing in the Pennzoil 400, and so should bettors. In eight races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway since joining Trackhouse Racing, Chastain has five top-five finishes (three in four starts in the first race and two in four starts in the second race) and six top-ten finishes (with an additional top-ten in the second race).

Chastain will start 17^th after starting sixth and second in the last two races, but that shouldn't put you off when he went from 21^st to 3^rd at Atlanta.