Mariners vs Red Sox Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (5/15)

After a rough stretch of interleague play, the Boston Red Sox will look to start the new week on a winning note tonight as they start a three-game series against the visiting Seattle Mariners (7:10 pm ET, MLB Network).

The Red Sox (22-19, 13-10 home) won eight straight games to boost their position in the wildly competitive AL East. But since wrapping up a series win over the Philadelphia Phillies with back-to-back wins, Boston has dropped five of six. Over the weekend, they were swept at home by the St. Louis Cardinals.

With a challenging nine-game road trip starting later this week, the Red Sox could benefit from success against Seattle (20-20, 10-8 away), but it won't come easy.

Who will take the win tonight at Fenway Park? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today's Mariners vs Red Sox game.

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Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Monday, May 15, 2023, at 10:07 am ET.

Moneyline

• Seattle Mariners -118
• Boston Red Sox +100

Over/Under

• Over 10 (-110)
• Under 10 (-110)

Run Line

• Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+140)
• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-170)

Pitching Matchup for Mariners vs Red Sox

• Seattle Mariners: RHP George Kirby (4-2, 2.62 ERA)
• Boston Red Sox: RHP Tanner Houck (3-2, 5.26 ERA)

Will Boston's Bats Get Going Against Stingy Seattle?

Boston's series against St. Louis started with five combined homers, 23 combined hits, and an 8-6 final score on Friday. But after doing their part in that slugfest, their bats didn't get the job done on Saturday and Sunday.

On Saturday, the Red Sox tallied three runs and five hits in the first three innings as they took an early 3-0 lead. In the final six innings, they tallied only five more hits and failed to score again, and the bullpen failed to hold a lead in the ninth for a second game in a row in a 4-3 loss.

Last night, Boston struggled all night long against Miles Mikolas and St. Louis's bullpen in a 9-1 loss, their biggest loss of the season to date.

Will things improve at the plate tonight against the Mariners?

This isn't a favorable matchup by any means. The Mariners fell 5-3 in yesterday's series finale against the Detroit Tigers, but prior to that game, they had given up three or fewer runs eight times in their previous 11 games.

For the season, Seattle ranks fourth in the league in runs allowed per game (3.75), and they rank fifth in runs allowed per game on the road (3.67).

Kirby has had a big hand in that stinginess. Since opening the season by allowing four runs and nine hits in 4.1 IP against the Los Angeles on April 3, Kirby has allowed two or fewer runs in five of six starts. In that stretch, he is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA.

Last time out, he pitched seven shutout innings against the Texas Rangers this past Tuesday, picking up his fourth win of the season as Seattle claimed a 5-0 victory. In his gem, he allowed six hits and no walks and struck out nine.

This stretch has propelled Kirby into the AL Cy Young Award conversation. The latest Cy Young odds (via BetOnline) have Kirby at +2200, which puts him ninth on the list of AL contenders.

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox to win

Best Bets for Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox ML (Best Value: BetUS) & Red Sox team total over 4.5 runs (Best Value: BetUS)

This is certainly a tough matchup for the Red Sox, but there are a few factors in their favor here that make me lean their direction.

Boston has not failed to score five or more runs in three straight home games since last September, and they rank third in the league in runs scored per game at home (5.83).

Also, the Red Sox are 7-4 (63.6%) as a home underdog this season, which ranks sixth in the league.

Also, while Houck's ERA may not be attractive, the Red Sox are a perfect 4-0 in his home starts this season. He has a 5.73 ERA at home, but he has gotten good run support, with the Red Sox scoring at least five runs in each game.

Also, in matchups between teams that are fairly equal, the home underdog is often just a great play.

Where to Bet on Mariners vs Red Sox

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