Runs In Atlanta: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Fri Sep 11, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
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+1.5
-139
7
-115u
+162
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Total
Moneyline
-1.5
130
7
+100o
-180
Welcome to my MLB expert picks for Friday, Sept. 11! The Phillies and Braves open a huge late-season series Friday night at Truist Park, and this matchup has more offense potential than the starting-pitcher names might initially suggest. Let's get into my Phillies vs. Braves predictions and best bets for tonight.
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MLB Expert Picks Today: Phillies vs. Braves (Sept. 11)
Friday's series opener gives us a quality left-hander in Chris Sale against an experienced right-hander in Aaron Nola, but the market is asking us to pick a side in a game with two very different pitching trajectories.
Sale has been excellent. A 2.10 ERA and 184 strikeouts tell you most of the story, and he remains one of the better pitchers in baseball when he is locating and getting ahead of hitters. Betting against him is never comfortable.
Still, this Phillies lineup is not the same group against left-handed pitching that it was earlier in the year. Philadelphia has made more consistent contact against southpaws in recent weeks, and it has enough right-handed pop and lineup balance to make Sale work for his outs. Philly ranks toward the top of the league in wRC+ and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching since Aug. 1.
The Braves have the clearer offensive matchup, though. Nola has been prone to allowing fly balls and barrels this season, and that is a dangerous profile against Atlanta at Truist Park. He can get away with mistakes against weaker lineups, but the Braves surely aren't that.
Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, and plenty of other capable hitters could break this game open.
If you're looking for more ways to bet Friday's baseball slate, check out the best online sportsbooks.
Phillies vs. Braves Date, Time & Location
- Location: Truist Park; Atlanta, Georgia
- Date: Friday, Sept. 11, 2026
- First Pitch: 7:15 PM ET
Phillies vs. Braves Odds: Run Line, Moneyline & Total
Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-135)
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline (+154)
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+115)
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-170)
- Over/Under 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs. Braves Best Bet for Friday, Sept 11
Best Bet: Phillies vs. Braves Over 7.5 Runs (-110) | BetOnline
My first Phillies vs. Braves pick for today is over 7.5 runs.
The total is low because Sale has been dominant, and that is fair. He is more than capable of shutting down any lineup on a given night. But a 7.5 total does not require Philadelphia to hang a crooked number all night.
At the plate, Atlanta has a realistic chance to do a lot of the work against Nola. The Braves have a handful of powerful lefties and a well-rounded lineup to put the ball in the air against Nola.
The Phillies can help on their end too. Philadelphia has improved against left-handed pitching, and Sale does not need to be bad for the over to be live. One laborious inning, a couple of timely hits with runners on base, or an early bullpen appearance could be enough to create the scoring environment we need.
This is not a bet against Sale's overall quality. It is a bet on the number being a little too low in a matchup where Atlanta can put pressure on Nola early, and Philadelphia is capable of contributing against a left-hander.
Give me Phillies vs. Braves over 7.5 runs.
Phillies vs. Braves Expert Pick: Matt Olson
Best Bet: Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases | BetOnline
My favorite Phillies vs. Braves prop is Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases.
The home-run matchup is easy to see. Nola has allowed too much fly-ball contact and too many barrels, while Olson continues to be one of the sport's most dangerous power hitters against right-handed pitching.
But home run props are always volatile. Olson can square up two balls, hit one 410 feet to the warning track, and leave us with nothing. Total bases gives us more outs.
A double cashes it. Two singles cash it. One home run ends the sweat immediately.
Nola's issues against left-handed hitters are especially concerning in this matchup. Olson has the platoon advantage, elite pull-side power, and a ballpark that allows Atlanta's left-handed bats to do damage. That is a good formula for exposure to the Braves' cleanup hitter.
Give me Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases today. Good luck!
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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