Can the Philadelphia Bullpen Hold Up? Saturday Best Bets in the MLB
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Sat Sep 12, 2026, 10:07 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Back for another weekend at the Betting News. Coming off a 4-2 week for a profit of 2.85 Units. That puts the YTD mark at 35-26 for a season high profit of +13.08 Units. Only a few more weekends left in the MLB regular season so let's carry that momentum. For tonight's MLB action, I am eyeing up Phillies vs Braves & Mariners vs Athletics in two games for my MLB Best Bets, let's dive in…
MLB Best Bets for Saturday, September 12th
- Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 +137 Lucky Rebel
- Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 Lucky Rebel
- Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Over 9.5 -108 Lucky Rebel
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
Phillies vs Braves Pitching Matchup
- Philadelphia Phillies (82-66) TBD
- Atlanta Braves (87-61) RHP Tyler Mahle (5-10, 4.05 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
Best Bet: Atlanta Braves Team Total Over 4.5 +137 Lucky Rebel
Philadelphia and Atlanta continue their 3 game series tonight, at Truist Park, in Atlanta. The Bravos took Game 1 by a 6-5 count in 11 innings, thanks to a Drake Baldwin walk-off RBI Double. Philadelphia closer Jhoan Duran was unavailable which led Jonathan Bowlan to handle closing duties, which he consequently blew. Philadelphia's bullpen has been a major issues this season, when your closer is the only reliable arm, you have a problem. Their pen owns a 4.24 ERA, which is 11th worst in the majors. This is important to note regarding tonight's contest as it was announced late last night that Jesus Luzardo would miss tonights start due to left shoulder stiffness, leading to a bullpen game for Philadelphia.
The Phillies bullpen had to cover significant tracks last night, burning through five relievers (Jose Alvarado, Alex McFarlane, Jonathan Bowlan, Chase Shugart, and Brooks Raley). Forcing them into 9 more high-stress innings tonight with fatigued arms is a recipe for surrendered runs. I'll back the Bravos to put up at least a a 5 spot here tonight.
Best Bet: Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 Total Bases +140 Lucky Rebel
Atlanta slugger Ronald Acuna is heating up and the right time of the season. Overall, he is hitting only .249 with 16 home runs and 45 runs batted in. During the month of September (1o Games), he is hitting .317 with 3 home runs, 9 runs batted in and 4 doubles. Acuna has cleared this mark in 6 of the 10 games in September, including 4 of 5 against the Phils pitching staff. I'll back him tonight to continue that trend, at a very nice price.
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics
Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Pitching Matchup
- Seattle Mariners (69-79) RHP Bryan Woo (11-9, 4.03 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
- Athletics (60-88) LHP Gage Jump (6-10. 5.12 ERA/1.47 WHIP)
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners vs Athletics Over 9.5 -108 Lucky Rebel
The Seattle Mariners and the Athletics continue their 3 game set tonight, at Sutter Health Park, in Sacramento. The Athletics are coming off a 6-5 win last night, in 10 innings. Once again we'll look at an over at the temporary home of the Athletics. The Park is the top rated venue for runs tonight, according to Ballpark Pal. It will be 79 degrees at game-time with a steady wind blowing out to dead center at 17 MPH.
We also have two volatile starters taking the mound, and the splits are in our favor. Let's start with Seattle starter Bryan Woo. The right hander benefits immensely from the pitcher friendly confines of Safeco field where he owns an ERA of 2.36 this season and 2.54 over his 4 year career. On the road is where things blow up where he owns an ERA of 5.63. Behind Woo is a Seattle pen that owns a 9th worst 4.50 ERA. I expect the Athletics bats to get to him and this Seattle staff, often tonight.
On the other side we have Athletics starter Gage Jump. The rookie left hander owns a home ERA of 5.62 on a WHIP of 1.55. He is only averaging 5.1 innings in 10 home starts this season, which leave a league worst bullpen to relieve him as the Athletics pen has a 5.32 ERA. With two starting pitchers holding ERAs north of 4.00 and 5.00 respectively, a minor-league venue playing like a launchpad, and empty bullpens from last night's extra-inning marathon, the over is the way to go here tonight.
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