Will the O’s get Baz any run support? Expert Picks in the MLB for 9/9

Only about 15 games to go in the regular season and we're coming down the home stretch. Plenty of teams are battling to win their respective divisions while others are trying to just make the playoffs. A big Wednesday slate in the MLB and I have me eye on two of the games. Let's dive into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, September 9th.

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, September 9th

• Guardians ML (-130) & F5 Under 4.5 (-103) & Under 8.5 (+100) ( at Lucky Rebel)
• Phillies -1.5 (+135) ( at Lucky Rebel)

 

 

Cleveland Guardians vs Baltimore Orioles

 

It's always amazing to me when a pitcher gets no run support consistently for the same guy. How do the hitters know that a certain guy is pitching so we're just not going to get him any runs? That's what it has felt like watching Orioles game this year when Shane Baz has pitched.

The right hander was acquired via trade in the offseason and signed a 3-year deal with the O's. Despite the 5-15 record this season Baz has pitched very well for Baltimore. He has a 3.91 era, 145 strikeouts and a 1.33 WHIP. All three of those are top 40 amongst starters in baseball. The problem for Baz has been, again, the run support.

The Orioles are 2-10 this season when Shane Baz has a quality start. 2 AND 10. In 3 of his last 4 starts the orioles have managed to score 1 run or fewer for him. In 5 of his last 7 starts they have scored 1 run or fewer for him. Game after game the Orioles fail to give this man any kind of run support. All year, he has been terrific in the first 5 innings and then in the 6th he usually starts to hit a wall. The first 5 under and full game under have been two great bets to make when Baz starts for the O's.

Baltimore hasn't had an off day since August 24th and their bullpen is gassed so that is my only concern for this game not going under the full game total. However, it has been so profitable all year and the Orioles don't win when Baz takes the mound so I like Cleveland, F5 under and the full game under today.

Bet: Guardians ML (-130) & F5 Under 4.5 (-103) & Under 8.5 (+100)

 

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies

Really fun pitching matchup tonight in Philly between Hunter Brown and the Astros and Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies. Hunter Brown was hurt for 2 and 1/2 months but is having a nice season with a 5-3 record and a 3.31 ERA. Sanchez on the other side has been outstanding for the Phillies. 16-5 record with a 2.58 ERA and 207 strikeouts.

This year Sanchez has almost been unhittable at home. 11-2 record with a 1.83 ERA in 108 innings pitched. He has only given up 22 earned runs at home all season. He did lose his last home start against the Braves who touched him up pretty good, but tonight he faces an American League team that rarely gets to see him and that's a huge advantage for the Phillies southpaw.

In the last 8 home games in which Sanchez has pitched, Philly has won 7 of those games and has covered the run line in 6 of them. Normally, when he pitches at home they win and they win comfortably. He is the anti Baz in a way where he has a great win loss record and the Phillies do get him run support.

I don't think there is any look ahead tonight for the Phillies with a massive trip on deck to Atlanta for the NL East Crown. I expect Sanchez and the Phillies to take care of business tonight and win by multiple runs.

Bet: Phillies -1.5 (+135)

 

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