San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds: Prediction, Odds, & Best Bets (July 1)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Jul 01, 2023, 9:52 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Padres are in Ohio taking on the Cincinnati Reds and the new young baseball phenom, Elly De La Cruz. This afternoon we have the second game of a three game weekend series, and we've got our prediction and best bets for the contest!
Let's breakdown tonight's matchup!
Check out our expert's thoughts on our MLB Picks Page!
Padres vs Reds Preview
The first installment of this series was nothing short of spectacular Friday Night. The Padres and Reds battled until a winner was finally decided after 11 innings.
The Reds thought they had won the ball game, but San Diego scored the tying run in the top of the 9th to force extra innings. Fans got their money's worth, as they saw a total of 8 runs in the 10th and 11th innings.
Cincinnati would escape with a win, but that means the Padres are that much hungrier for a win today.
Padres vs Reds Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Great American Ball Park (Cincinnati, OH)
- Date: Saturday, July 1st, 2023
- First Pitch: 1:40pm Eastern
- Broadcast: BSOH
Pitching Matchup
- San Diego Padres: Michael Wacha (7-2, 2.90 ERA)
- Cincinnati Reds: Brandon Williamson (1-1, 5.82 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Padres -1.5 (-110)
- Reds +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Padres -170
- Reds +141
Total
- Over 11.5 (-105)
- Under 11.5 (-115)
Is It Just Me? Or Is That Total Really High?
That was the first bit of information that stuck out to me. We see a total listed at 11.5, and trust me, I double checked, we aren't playing this game in Coors Field.
So what gives? Does Vegas really think we see 12 runs tonight?
Sure we saw 12 last night, but like I said, 8 of those were scored in extra innings. It was a 2-2 ball game heading into the 10th.
Michael Wacha is on the bump for San Diego, and he's posting a sub 3.00 ERA over 80+ innings this season. Even coming back from injury, I think Wacha continues the success he has had this season.
Even with as electric as these two offenses can be, I think we see a low scoring game today.
Give me Under 11.5 for (-114).
Michael Wacha Masterclass Loading…
Even coming back off of a shoulder injury, I think Wacha can deal against the Reds.
He already beat them once in May. In that start, he pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing just two hits and two walks. He's been able to set batters up, and mow them down, and I see him continuing that tonight.
Now, Wacha has yet to face the one and only De La Cruz, who bats .355 against righties.
Elly might be able to do something at the plate, but ultimately I think Wacha to have a solid outing. I won't be taking his strikeouts, as he isn't really a strikeout pitcher.
Instead, I'll shop around and take his Under Hits Allowed.
Wacha Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-150)
Yes, it's juicy, just pay the juice man.
Wacha has stayed under in 11/14 games this year, and he's only given up 5 hits twice. He's also stayed under this number in 10 straight starts, while averaging 6.1 innings.
I think Wacha has a great day on the bump in his return.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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