Reds vs. Brewers (August 7): How will Milwaukee respond to falling from first in the NL Central?

Eddie Griffin

The hard-charging St. Louis Cardinals have pushed past the Milwaukee Brewers into sole possession of first place in the NL Central, thanks to a win last night over the New York Yankees and the Brewers’ loss to the Cincinnati Reds.

How will Milwaukee, who has been in the driver’s seat in the division all season long, losing their grip to the Cards?

Their star pitcher will be on the mound this afternoon in Milwaukee in a matchup of present versus future.

Corbin Burnes is one of the star hurlers of the present, and he is chasing a second straight NL Cy Young Award. Hunter Greene is one of the star hurlers of the future, and he’ll be looking to provide yet another example of why that will be sooner rather than later after mowing down the Miami Marlins last Monday.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (43-63, 19-31 away, tied for 3rd in the NL Central) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (58-49, 27-21 home, 2nd in the NL Central)
  • Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
  • Date: Sunday, August 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)

Reds vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

  • Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene (2022: 20 starts, 4-12, 5.26 ERA)
  • Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (2022: 21 starts, 8-5, 2.49 ERA)

Reds vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from other top legal sports betting sites may also be mentioned in this article.

Moneyline

  • Cincinnati Reds +225
  • Milwaukee Brewers -275

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-106)
  • Under 7.5 (-114)

Run Line

  • Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (+104)
  • Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-125)

Can Burnes Rejuvenate His Cy Young Hopes Against Cincinnati?

Throughout the season, a potential NL Cy Young Award repeat has been within reach for Burnes, at least based on the odds.

It isn’t out of reach yet, but the gap between he and favorite Sandy Alcantara is widening.

On Tuesday night, Burnes shut out the Pittsburgh Pirates for five innings, then things fell apart for him in a five-run sixth for the Pirates. What was on course to be his ninth win of the season ended up being his fifth loss.

Alcantara took the mound against the Reds on Wednesday and was outstanding, throwing a complete-game shutout. As per the latest NL Cy Young odds at FanDuel, he is a -240 favorite, with Burnes next in line at +800 followed by Atlanta’s Max Fried, who lost last night against the Mets, at +1700.

So, Burnes needs to be at his best against Cincinnati in this matchup for his fading Cy Young chances and for the Brewers to pick up a much-needed win after losing five of six games.

The Brewers are just 26-22 following a loss this season, but the Reds have yet to pick up consecutive wins in Greene’s starts. Part of that can be attributed to how bad they have been as a team, and part of it can be attributed to Greene’s own growing pains.

He has had a number of outstanding outings, including Monday’s win over the Marlins in which he allowed one hit (and no walks) and struck out eight in six shutout innings.

But he has not done well with stringing too many solid starts together. He has yet to go six innings in three straight starts, and he has had only one stretch in which he allowed two or fewer runs in three straight starts.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Picks

Reds vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers to win

Reds vs. Brewers Picks: Brewers -1.5 (Best Value: -118 at BetRivers)

The Brewers are 8-3 against the Reds this season, and six of those wins–including all four home wins–have come by 2+ runs.

Additionally, of the nine losses that the Reds have in Greene’s 11 road starts, seven have come by 2+ runs. Comparatively, three of their six losses in his nine home starts have been by 2+ runs.

Also, of Burnes’ eight wins this season, seven have come by 2+ runs.

So, if he picks up his ninth win today, the odds are high that it won’t be a one-run win for the Brew Crew.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.