Rays vs Yankees: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (August 1)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Aug 01, 2023, 5:06 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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A new month, and a new opportunity to find some edges as the Rays are in New York taking on the Yankees.
We ended July on a high note last night, but it was a bad month overall.
Nevertheless, we're back again with a new calendar, ready to attack the board.
Last night these AL East rivals played game one of this three game series, and the Rays beat up the Yankees.
Tyler Glasnow pitched 7 innings, giving up just 1 ER on 3 hits while striking out 8 batters.
The Rays led 5-1 by the middle of the 4th, and the scored stayed that way for the remainder of the game.
Tampa Bay now leads New York 5-3 on the season series.
Let's talk more about that and breakdown tonight's matchup!
Rays vs Yankees Season History
This series is just the third of four for these rivals throughout the season. Towards the end of this month the Rays host the Yankees in their season series finale.
In early May at Tropicana Field, the Rays took two of three from New York, but they were all one run games. The Rays won 5-4, the Yankees won the next day 3-2, and then Tampa took the last game in extra innings, 8-7.
They faced off again at Yankee Stadium after just one series apart, and this time they split four games. The Rays handled business 8-2 in game 1, but the other three contests were all decided by just one run.
The Yankees could even the season series with two wins tonight, and they need them to stay competitive in the AL East, as they currently sit 10 games back in last place.
Rays vs Yankees Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)
- Date: Tuesday, August, 1st, 2023
- First Pitch: 7:05pm Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS
Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays: Zach Eflin (11-6, 3.64 ERA)
- New York Yankees: Carlos Rodón (1-3, 5.75 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Rays -1.5 (+150)
- Yankees +1.5 (-175)
Moneyline
- Rays -113
- Yankees -107
Total
- Over 8 (-115)
- Under 8 (-105)
Will Eflin Shutdown the Yankees?
You can stop reading here. The answer is yes.
Glasnow shutdown the Yankees last night, and I don't see why Eflin doesn't do the same thing here. I'll get more into it when I discuss some player props, but the point is, I see the Rays' pitcher shutting down New York on the road.
I don't think Rodón will have very much fun tonight facing these Rays hitters. He's got an almost 6 ERA in just 20 innings this year, and we know what the Rays bats are capable of.
They rank 4th in Runs and 5th in Slugging, and I think they have a field day in the Bronx on national television tonight.
The Pick: Rays -1.5 (+150) Bovada
Player Props
Yandy Diaz over 1.5 Bases (+112) BetOnline
Yandy Diaz tears up left handed pitchers. He bats .333 against them and .318 overall.
Diaz has cleared 2+ bases in 6 of his last 10 overall, totaling 17 bases in that stretch. He's cleared in two straight games, including two singles last night to get the job done.
He's also been tearing up the Yankees this year.
Diaz has a hit in every single game against New York this year, and he's cleared his bases line in 5 of 8. He's also hit in 4 of 5 at Yankee Stadium, and has 12 bases in New York this year. This includes a home run.
Rodón has given up 9 of 10 hits, both doubles, and 3 of 4 home runs to RHB in a short time this season.
I could see him struggling against Diaz who bats .333 against him with two hits and two RBIs historically.
Zach Eflin over 5.5 Strikeouts (+114) Bovada
Eflin already beat the Yankees once this year. He pitched 6 innings and struck out 9 batters. Now, he did allow 7 hits and 4 runs, but I think he can get it together tonight.
Over the past month, the Yankees strikeout 12th most to RHP, and we saw what Glasnow was able to do last night. Dean Kremer also struck out 7 on Sunday Night Baseball.
Eflin is in the Top 25% in Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate (CSW), and for plus money, I'm willing to bet he can strikeout 6 guys tonight.
It might be a sweat, but I trust Eflin to get us there.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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