Rangers vs Astros (April 16): Prediction & Best Bets for the Finale in Houston

After splitting their first two games at Minute Maid Park, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will face off in the rubber game of their three-game series to wrap up today's MLB schedule (7:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Sunday Night Baseball clash between the Rangers (8-6, 2-3 away) and Astros (7-7, 4-5 home) sees two southpaws take the hill. Andrew Heaney gets the starting assignment for the Rangers, while Framber Valdez gets the nod for the Astros.

Which Lone Star State squad will take the series win in Houston? Read on for our Rangers vs Astros prediction, as well as our MLB betting picks for tonight's matchup at Minute Maid.

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Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, April 16, 2023. Additionally, any other references to odds in this article involve only our recommended sports betting sites, unless otherwise noted.

Moneyline

• Texas Rangers +168
• Houston Astros -200

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-102)
• Under 8 (-120)

Run Line

• Texas Rangers +1.5 (-126)
• Houston Astros -1.5 (+105)

Will This Trend Start to Turn Around for the Astros?

After winning the World Series last season, it hasn't been the best of starts for the Astros, who are looking to end the day at or over .500 for the first time since they were 2-2 after the end of their season-opening series against the Chicago White Sox.

But if you have been following this franchise for a while, you will know that slow starts are fairly common for Houston.

• 2022: started 7-9, finished 106-56, won World Serires
• 2021: started 7-10, finished 95-67, lost in World Series
• 2020: started 7-10, finished 29-31, lost in ALCS
• 2019: started 2-5, finished 107-55, lost in World Series

So, those with Astros futures should be relaxed about their bets, because based on recent history and the talent on this team, it will take some work to pry AL supremacy out of their hands.

That said, for things to turn around like they should, there is one trend that needs to change soon, starting with tonight's game against the Rangers.

Since the start of 2018–we won't count 2017 given the controversial nature of Houston's success that season–only four teams have won 60% or more of their games following a win.

• 1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 64.3% (317-176)
• 2. Houston Astros – 63.5% (309-178)
• 3. Tampa Bay Rays – 63.1% (277-162)
• 4. New York Yankees – 61.0% (274-175)

This season, the Astros are just 2-4 following a win, which is tied for 22nd in the league. They had back-to-back home wins over the White Sox on March 31 and April 1, and they also went back-to-back on the road against the Minnesota Twins and Pittsburgh Pirates on April 9 and 10.

This is an excellent opportunity to improve upon those numbers, as their ace takes the hill tonight for his fourth start of the season.

Last time out, Valdez walked five in seven innings and allowed his first home run of the season, but he claimed his first win of the season after allowing just two runs in seven innings in the Astros' 8-2 win over the Pirates last Monday.

Valdez struggled in his first career start against the Rangers back in 2019, allowing four runs, four hits, and three walks in two-thirds of an inning.

But since then, he has loved pitching against Texas, going 6-1 with a 1.77 ERA in nine starts. Last season, he went 3-1 with a 1.56 ERA in five starts against the Rangers, and he went at least six innings and allowed no more than three earned runs in each start.

Rangers vs Astros Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Rangers vs Astros: Astros to win

Best Bets for Rangers vs Astros: Astros -1.5 (Best Value: BetUS)

Valdez has had a lot of success against the Rangers in the last few seasons, and I'm expecting that success to continue tonight.

If you are in the mood for a little K prop action, the over on his has a lot of juice tonight–at the time of writing, the best number for over 6.5 Ks is -140 at BetOnline–but it is still worth considering he has had seven or more strikeouts in seven of his 10 previous starts against Texas.

Where to Bet on Rangers vs Astros

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There are plenty of places where you can place MLB bets, but if you are looking for reputable, legal options, you cannot go wrong with this quartet of sportsbooks.