Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Picks and Predictions (8/13): Fade Mitch Keller

The Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers battle out an NL Central matchup on Wednesday afternoon. The Brewers host the Pirates for the final game of a three game series at American Family Field, but these teams will play one more series in Pittsburgh in September. Things got out of hand last night, will we see something similar this afternoon?

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: MLB Picks & Predictions

The Brewers lead the NL Central by 7.5 games over the Chicago Cubs, and they are on a nice 11 game winning streak as well, including taking the first two against Pittsburgh. They've outscored the Pirates 21-1 (not a typo) in their last two games of this series, and lead the overall regular season battle, 6-3 overall, including winning four of five in Milwaukee.

The Pirates have lost four straight of their own, and are just 17-41 on the road this season. They sit 25 games out of first place of the division, bringing up the rear a full 10 games behind the No. 4 ranked St. Louis Cardinals. I'm not sure things will get any easier tonight, as Mitch Keller starts for Pittsburgh.

Matchup Information – Pirates vs. Brewers – August 13

• Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, WI)
• Date: Wednesday, August 13, 2025
• First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. Eastern
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Pitching Matchup

• Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller (5-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)
• Milwaukee Brewers: Brandon Woodruff (4-0, 2.29 ERA, 0.65 WHIP)

Pirates vs. Brewers Betting Odds

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Run Line

• Pirates +1.5 (+103)
• Brewers -1.5 (-123)

Moneyline

• Pirates +213
• Brewers -239

Total

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

This is going to be a strict fade of Mitch Keller. The Brewers bats are read hot, they've won 11 straight, and I think they get it done again tonight, continuing their divisional dominance. Which is why I've targeting a pitcher prop where we can root for his downfall.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers MLB Best Bets

Pirates vs. Brewers MLB Prediction: Brewers Win, Over 7.5

Best Bet: Mitch Keller Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-115) Bovada

Let's fade Mitch Keller.

His splits are about the same on the road or at home this season, but recently he has been slumping. Despite Pittsburgh winning his past five starts, with Keller snagging two of those for his own record, he's got a 6.92 ERA and a 2.09 WHIP in that stretch. He's allowed at least six hits in three of his last four starts, giving up five in just two innings against the San Francisco Giants.

Against Milwaukee in May, Keller gave up seven hits in six innings, but he did strikeout seven and only gave up one run in a Pittsburgh win. Regardless, Keller has gone at least five innings in all but two starts this season, which should be plenty of time for the hottest team in baseball to rack up enough hits. Plus, he has given up six hits in 11/24 starts this season, ending on five hits seven separate times. I've got faith Milwaukee forces him over the hump tonight.

The Brewers are hitting .300 as a team since the All Star Break, including hitting .323 during the month of August, where they've won every single game. Give me the Milwaukee bats to stay red hot tonight at home against Keller who has gotten wrecked a good portion of this season.

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