Don’t Overthink the Opener: Friday Best Bets in the MLB
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Fri Oct 23, 2026, 9:26 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-144
6.5
-113u
+166
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
130
6.5
-105o
-183
We are coming off a 2-0 weekend bringing out YTD mark to 57-37 for a profit of 27.09 Units. We have finally reached the fall classic and are presented with a fantastic matchup as Milwaukee Brewers host the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of the 2026 World Series. Even though these are two "small market teams" I think this is the best matchup we could have had and this series should be an absolute banger.
How will Game 1 play out? Let's dive into the Best Bets but Before we do, if you are looking for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Predictions
The Milwaukee Brewers ending the regular season with the best record in the majors at a 103-59 mark. The Brew Crew cruised through the playoffs defeating the San Diego Padres in 4 games in the divisional round an then sweeping the two time defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers. The Tampa Bay Rays owned the best record in the American league at a 98-64 mark. Tampa Bay swept the New York Yankees in the divisional round and then taking out the Cleveland Guardians in 6 games, coming back from a 2-1 series deficit.
Each of these teams can beat you many different ways, both squads are elite at the plate, have very solid starting pitching and bullpens and are good defensively. I think we will see a little bit of everything in this series and we will be in for every entertaining baseball.
Last 5 Games
TB
Result
ATS
Total
vs CLE
W3 - 7
W-3.5
P10
@ CLE
W3 - 1
W-1.5
P4
@ CLE
W7 - 3
W-1.5
5
@ CLE
L2 - 3
W+1.5
P5
vs CLE
W1 - 3
W-1.5
P4
MIL
Result
ATS
Total
@ LAD
W6 - 4
W+1.5
11
@ LAD
W6 - 2
W-2.5
7
vs LAD
W4 - 7
W+1.5
10
vs LAD
W1 - 2
L-1.5
6
@ SD
W3 - 1
W+1.5
6
Betting Records
TB
MIL
105 - 66(2nd)
46 - 39
Wins
Away/Home
(1st)110 - 59
59 - 26
94 - 77 - 0(2nd)
45 - 40 - 0
ATS
Away/Home
(7th)90 - 79 - 0
47 - 38 - 0
78 - 67 - 26(27th)
41 - 31 - 13
Ov / Un
Away/Home
(30th)72 - 70 - 27
35 - 33 - 17
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Nick Martinez (1-0, 3.00 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
- Milwaukee Brewers – RHP Jacob Misiorowski (0-0, 3.24 ERA/1.56 WHIP)
Odds courtesy of our friends at LuckyRebel:
Run Line
- Tampa Bay +1.5 (-147)
- Milwaukee -1.5 (+122)
Money-line
- Tampa Bay +163
- Milwaukee -198
Total
- Over 6.5 (-112)
- Under 6.5 (-108)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers Picks
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 3.5 -108 Lucky Rebel
The Milwaukee Brewers were an abo;lsute offensive machine at home this season. At Miller park, the Brewers averaged 5.52 runs per game, they also led the majors in batting average (.270), 3rd in OPS (.782), and 2nd in wRC+ (118). It looked like Tampa was going to give the starting nod to Drew Rasmussen but now Nick Martinez is listed to start. Martinez has been solid this season but Rasmussen is the better pitcher and I am surprised at this move by Rays manager Kevin Cash.
Regardless, I will gladly take a team total this low on Milwaukee. The Brewers can beat you many different ways. They play old school baseball by making contact, moving runners and stealing bases. Milwaukee can also overpower you by hitting home runs and are a joy to watch in this modern day MLB. The long layoff is a slight concern but any potential rust will be gone after the first couple innings. I think Milwaukee takes game one and they should hit the 4 run plateau while doing it.
Best Bet: Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 Total Bases +122 Lucky Rebel
Milwaukee left fielder Jackson Chourio had a very solid regular season where he hit .291 with 25 home runs and 75 runs batted in. He has been quiet in the oplayoffs however as his is hitting on .171 but has 2 home runs. Chourio has hit right handed pitching well this season hitting .274 with a .780 OPS. Jackson loves hitting at home as well. At Miller Park during the season he hit .313 with and OPS of .933 and an ISO of .224. I like Milwaukees young stud to make an immediate impact in the World Series and we are getting a very nice price on him to get to 2 bases.
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