Orioles vs Red Sox, Prediction & Picks: Baltimore Wins Again at Fenway

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

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Orioles vs Red Sox, Prediction & Picks: Baltimore Wins Again at Fenway cover


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It’s College Football Saturday, but we’ve also go September baseball in this AL East Rivalry game! The Baltimore Orioles are taking on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park!

The regular season is coming to a close, and these teams are still battling for playoff positioning.

The Orioles are currently 4 games ahead of the Rays for 1st place in the AL East. They are on a six game winning streak, have won 12 of their L15.

The Red Sox sit 6 games out of a Wild Card spot. They are lead by the Blue Jays, Mariners, and Rangers, and at this point need a huge miracle to squeeze into the playoffs.

Boston has lost three straight, including last night to Baltimore, and they are 4-8 in their L12. They are trending in the wrong direction right before the season ends.

Not great for a playoff push.

Regardless, let’s break down today’s game!

Orioles vs Red Sox Game Information

After winning last night, the Orioles claimed the lead on the season series, 4 games to 3.

The previous six matchups all happened within the 1st month of the season, and now they play two more this series, and close it out with a 4 game series in Baltimore in late September.

We’ve got two solid pitchers who will look to show out for their squad.

Matchup Information

  • Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
  • Date: Saturday, September 9th, 2023
  • First Pitch: 4:10pm Eastern
  • Broadcast: NESN

Pitching Matchup

  • Baltimore Orioles: Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.84 ERA)
  • Boston Red Sox: Chris Sale (6-3, 4.46 ERA)

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Bovada.


  • Orioles +1.5 (-160)
  • Red Sox -1.5 (+135)


  • Orioles +122
  • Red Sox -145


  • Over 10 (-115)
  • Under 10 (-105)
Orioles Red Sox Prediction Picks

Orioles vs Red Sox Best Bets

I think Baltimore at plus money is a gift.

The Red Sox season is all but gone, and the Orioles need to hold on to the top spot in the division. Jack Flaherty is on the mound and has pitched well since coming over from St. Louis.

These Boston batters haven’t seen his stuff, and despite some struggles last start, I think he bounces back and pitches well tonight.

I like the Orioles bats to come alive like they did last night for 11 runs, and ultimately I think we are stealing from the books at this price, which I’m certainly not torn up about.

Gimme the Orioles tonight and for the rest of the season.

The Pick: Orioles ML (+127) BetOnline

Player Props

Austin Hays over 1.5 Bases (+131) Bovada

Orioles Red Sox Prediction Picks

Hays clears this number in 40% of games overall, but 44% on the road.

In six games against Boston this season, Hays has a hit in 4/6 but only cleared this line in 2/6. However, he did have a game with 10 total bases, including a home run, 2 doubles, and 5 total hits.

He also smashes Chris Sale.

In 16 plate appearances, Hays bats .375 with 3 singles and 3 Home Runs against Sale.

It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes yard tonight, but I definitely think he gets us two bases.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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