Marlins vs Red Sox: Prediction, Odds, Best Bets (June 29)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Jun 29, 2023, 10:35 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Miami Marlins are far from the Sunshine State as they take on the Red Sox at Fenway Park. This is the final game of a three game series in which the home team has not faired well.
Have no fear, we've sorted through the betting odds and have our prediction and best bet for the contest!
Let's breakdown tonight's matchup!
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Miami vs Boston Series Recap
The Red Sox have not looked good in the previous two games of this series. For starters, them both, and in blowout fashion. Boston only put up 3 runs in the first two games, while the Marlins were able to cruise to a 10-1 victory the first night, and 6-2 the very next.
Miami outscored Boston 16-3 the past two days, yet tonight is nearly a pick 'em.
The Marlins are 2nd in the NL East, posting a 47-34 record, yet they are still 6.5 games behind the division leading Braves. Miami is on a four game win streak, and are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Boston is skidding in the other direction.
They're last in the AL East, although just one game under .500. Boston has lost 4 straight, and 6 of their last 7 games. It is worth noting, they had a 6 game winning streak prior to this slide.
Regardless, Miami is a tough opponent. The Marlins are throwing out Jesús Luzardo who loves to make batters look foolish. Luzardo ranks in the 86th percentile in Swinging Strike Rate (14.1%).
Can the Red Sox avoid another home loss tonight before hitting the road? Or will Miami break out the brooms and head down South?
Marlins vs Red Sox Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
- Date: Thursday, June 29th, 2023
- First Pitch: 6:10pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NESN
Pitching Matchup
- Miami Marlins: Jesús Luzardo (6-5, 3.77 ERA)
- Boston Red Sox: Brayan Bello (5-4, 3.27 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Marlins +1.5 (-205)
- Red Sox -1.5 (+175)
Moneyline
- Marlins -110
- Red Sox -110
Total
- Over 9 (-115)
- Under 9 (-105)
Can the Red Sox Avoid the Sweep?
Luzardo makes it a little more difficult for the Red Sox to find a win today. Boston bats well against lefties, and they don't strikeout often. But Luzardo can make guys miss any day of the weel.
It's worth noting that Luzardo's numbers are a bit inflated on the road, where he does struggle a bit. However, with him and Bello sharing the mound, I think we see a pitching duel and a low scoring ball game.
Give me the Under 9 (-105) on Bovada.
Player Props
Luis Arraez over 1.5 Total Bases (-120) BetOnline
If you've been paying attention to Major League Baseball this year, you've heard of this guy. He's currently batting .396 on the year with 318 plate appearances.
Arraez is on an 11 game hit streak, and I like him to continue it tonight.
He's more comfortable batting from the left side, which he will do against Bello tonight. Arraez has 3 plate appearances against Bello, where he bats .500 with a walk and a single.
Very small sample size, but still. He's at least had success against this guy.
Arraez hits this number in 52% of games this season, and in his last 10 games, he has 22 total bases. At -120, I'll pay a little juice and hope he gets a double tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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