The New York Yankees host the Kansas City Royals tonight in the Bronx for game two of this series. New York took game one last night by a score of 4-1, with all five runs coming off solo shots. You read that correctly. Bobby Witt Jr. went solo in the 3rd for the Royals only run, followed by Jazz Chisholm in the 4th, and Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, and Austin Wells in the 5th. Will we see as much excitement tonight?
Through 16 games, the Yankees are on top of the AL East at 9-7, but the race is tight and it's still plenty early in the season. After San Francisco just stole two of three from New York at home, the Yankees will want to win tonight and make sure the Royals don't have a chance at winning this series. Kansas City is just 8-9 so far and are only 2-5 on the road. It's no secret that the Yals can't really hit outside of Kauffman, and overall the entire team performs better at home.
Will they show up tonight and even the series? Or will the Yankees start a winning streak?
I try my best to leave my hometown bias out of all my picks, as any sports bettor should. It would be a huge emotional win for me if the Royals pulled this off, but the reality is, they are outmatched and totally different away from home. Although I may look to back them tomorrow as they do a good job of avoiding the sweep, tonight I'll be fading my own team and backing the Yankees.
Look, we're paying some juice and we don't have push potential. However, BetOnline is offering us the best line on the market, as this is priced around (-150) pretty much everywhere else. I'll willingly pay the juiceman for a couple reasons tonight.
For starters, the Yankees as a team hit slightly better at home, and tonight they face Michael Wacha. He had a good outing to start the season, but has allowed 6 runs on 9 hits in his last two starts. Now this will be his first start on the road, and we know the Royals fail to provide run support outside of Kansas City.
Last season, the Royals' team batting average dropped 12 points each time they played away from home. So far this year, it drops 20 points, as the team has only hit .191 in seven away games this season. The good news for the Royals? They face a lefty which sincerely helps their chances at hitting better. However Fried is coming off pitching 7 shutout innings, and has allowed just one run and one walk in his last two starts, totaling 12.2 innings.
As for the Yankees' bats, they have two hitters with elite matchup ratings against Wacha according to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen), and four others with an above average rating. Aaron Judge also has an elite matchup wOBA, matchup ISO, and hard contact rating against Wacha, so I was convinced to pair his home run with New York's F5 ML for (+475).
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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