Braves vs Rays: Prediction, Odds, & Best Bets (July 7)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Jul 07, 2023, 11:07 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Tonight we get a showdown between arguably the two best teams in Major League Baseball! The National League leading Braves are down in Tampa taking on the American League leading Rays.
Tonight is game 1 of a three game weekend series, and we have our prediction and best bets for the contest!
Let's break it down!
Check out our expert's thoughts on our MLB Picks Page!
Showdown for the Ages
It really is the battle of two Goliath's tonight in Tampa Bay.
Atlanta sits in 1st place of their division and on top of National League as a whole. They are currently 8.5 games ahead of the 2nd place Marlins, who are 2nd in both the NL East and the NL overall.
The Rays had the best record in baseball at one point, but have certainly cooled off since. Nevertheless, the Rays are still 57-33 overall and are on top of the American League. The Baltimore Orioles are just 4 games back in the AL East, so the Rays will look to get things back on track.
Tampa Bay is currently on a five game losing streak, and just recently got swept at home by the Philadelphia Phillies. On the other hand, the Braves are currently 9-1 in their last 10 contests.
Can the Rays turn this ship around? Or will the Braves continue to take over the top of the MLB?
Braves vs Rays Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, FL)
- Date: Friday, July 7th, 2023
- First Pitch: 6:40pm Eastern
- Broadcast: Apple TV+
Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57 ERA)
- Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Braves +1.5 (-220)
- Rays -1.5 (+180)
Moneyline
- Braves -106
- Rays -114
Total
- Over 8.5 (-105)
- Under 8.5 (-115)
Surely the Rays Stop the Skid at Home, Right?
The Rays are spiraling downhill and are not in a good place. The rest of the AL East is absolutely loving this losing streak Tampa Bay is on. They're only 5-11 in their last 16 games, and 3-6 in their last 9 home games.
We know what the Rays are capable of, but they do face Charlie Morton and the Braves tonight.
Morton is coming off some quality starts. Six days ago he faced the Marlins and pitched 5.2 shutout innings on his way to his 8th win of the season. Morton only gave up 4 hits and struck out 5 batters.
Personally, this game is far too close for me to choose a side, although my gut would side with the home team with Glasnow on the mound.
Nevertheless, we've got some player props for this one!
Player Props
Marcell Ozuna Hit (-154) BetOnline
As always, do not be afraid to pay the juice man.
Ozuna is currently on a 15-game hitting streak. He gets a hit in 69% of games this season, and 68% on the road.
Marcell Ozuna also has a hit in 26 of his last 28 games. If not for two slip-ups against Colorado, he would be searching for number 29 tonight.
Alas, 15 games is still plenty, and he does well historically against Glasnow. In 5 at bats against Glasnow, Ozuna is 3/5 with a double. A very small sample size, but he hits .600 of of this guy.
Pair that with the fact that he hits .243 against RHP and has a hit in 15 straight games, I think this number is way too low. Personally I would price this around -215, so -154 is a price I am definitely willing to pay.
Charlie Morton over 6.5 Strikeouts (+102) Bovada
I'll admit I am less confident in this one, but I'll take a stab at it for plus money.
The Rays don't strikeout a ton, but opposing pitchers have been having some success on them recently. Taijuan Walker and Aaron Nola combined for 20 strikeouts in 14 innings the the last series.
Morton has only cleared this line in half his starts, but he's soared over in his recent road starts. He posted 7, 8, 9, and 10 Ks in consecutive road starts.
Morton posts 1.16 K/Inning, and he has 31.4% Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate, ranking him in the 84th percentile of the league.
Again, less confident in this one, but I'll take a chance with how the Rays have been playing.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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