Braves vs. Marlins (Oct. 4): Will struggling Odorizzi right the ship to secure NL East title for Atlanta?

Eddie Griffin

After sweeping the New York Mets last weekend, the Atlanta Braves went into their season-ending series in Miami just needing to avoid a sweep to wrap up a fifth straight NL East title, regardless of the result of the Mets’ series against the Washington Nationals.

Ideally, Atlanta would have taken care of business on the first try. But that did not happen, as Miami won 4-0 last night behind Jesus Luzardo’s six shutout innings and 12 strikeouts and Bryan de la Cruz’s three hits and three RBI.

So, entering today, the Mets’ NL East hopes are still very much alive and kicking.

That can change tonight if the Braves pick up their 101st win of the season, but if Atlanta swings and misses again tonight in Miami, the division could remain undecided entering the final day of the regular season.

Will we have some last-day drama in the NL East? Or will New York’s lingering hopes be snuffed out tonight, either in Miami or at Citi Field?

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
  • Venue & Location: LoanDepot Park (Miami, Florida)
  • Date: Tuesday, October 4, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Braves vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup

  • Atlanta: RHP Jake Odorizzi (2022: 21 starts, 5-6, 4.53 ERA – 1-3, 5.66 ERA in nine starts with Atlanta)
  • Miami: LHP Braxon Garrett (2022: 16 starts, 3-6, 3.56 ERA)

Braves vs. Marlins Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

  • Atlanta Braves -164
  • Miami Marlins +138

Over/Under

  • Over 8 (-102)
  • Under 8 (-120)

Run Line

  • Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+104)
  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-125)

Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Best Bets

Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Braves to win

Braves vs. Marlins Best Bets: Braves -1.5 (Best Value: +105 at Caesars Sportsbook & BetMGM)

The Braves are not getting what they would have hoped for from Odorizzi when they traded for him. He certainly would not have been expected to have the impact that is expected of Max Fried or Charlie Morton, but they are just 3-6 in his nine starts.

That isn’t all his fault, of course, but he has pitched five or more innings only three times. Last month, he didn’t make it through five full innings in any of his four starts, three of which the Braves lost.

Most Recent Starts for Jake Odorizzi

  • at Washington (9/28): 3.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R (ER), 3 BB
  • at Philadelphia (9/23): 4 IP, 10 H, 8 R (8 ER), 3 BB, 6 K
  • vs. Philadelphia (9/17): 4.2 IP, 3 H, R (ER), BB, 5 K
  • at Seattle (9/11): 3.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (4 ER), 3 BB, 3 K

However, among the three times Atlanta has been victorious in one of his starts, one was in Miami. a 4-3 win on August 12. In that start, he allowed eight hits and a walk in four innings, but he managed to give up only two runs.

Is there is anything for anxious Braves fans to feel good about? Well, history is positive.

In 109 appearances (108 starts) against teams below .500, Odorizzi is 37-23 with a 3.62 ERA. Against teams at or above .500, Odorizzi is 36-46 with a 4.30 ERA in 131 appearances (128 starts).

Out of Atlanta’s six losses in his nine starts, five have come against teams at or above .500 (Mets x 2, Cardinals, Mariners, and Phillies).

However, his margin for error tonight might be pretty small. Garrett has a 2.48 ERA in seven home starts and a 2.53 ERA in eight daytime starts, and he pitched six shutout innings against Atlanta at home on August 14.

But Atlanta has been one of the league’s best teams at bouncing back from losses. That should see them shut down any remaining suspense tonight.

Entering today, the Braves are 39-20 (.661) following a loss, which puts them third behind the Mets (42-18, .700) and Astros (38-17, .691).

Of those 39 wins, 30 (76.9 percent) of them have come by 2+ runs, including nine of 12 since the All-Star break. That is the direction we recommend going here, with the ML not really worth a play value-wise.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.