Blue Jays vs. Phillies (September 21): Will Gausman continue his strong road run to extend Philly’s skid to six?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Wed Sep 21, 2022, 11:52 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After one of the wildest games of the year on the diamond, whatever the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies do tonight at Citizens Bank Park will almost certainly be a letdown in terms of thrills (and runs).
That is, unless someone throws a no-hitter or more than 29 runs are scored in tonight's game.
With two of the best pitchers in the league on the mound tonight, the former is a lot more likely to occur than the latter.
Last night, the Jays outslugged the Phillies 18-11, picking up their 16th win in 22 games and sending the home team to its fifth straight loss. Toronto tallied seven doubles, a triple, and two homers among their 21 hits, while Philadelphia had two doubles and three homers among their 15 hits.
While the Jays are on fire and continue to close in on locking up an AL wild-card spot, the Phillies are hitting a cold spell at the wrong time, which is allowing the Milwaukee Brewers to remain within striking distance for the final NL wild-card spot despite doing everything they can to fumble away their chances.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Information and Betting Odds
Matchup Information
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (84-64, 41-32 away, 2nd in the AL East) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (80-67, 44-32 home, 3rd in the NL East)
- Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)
- Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
- Game Time: 6:45 p.m. Eastern Time
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Pitching Matchup
- Toronto: Kevin Gausman (2022: 28 starts, 12-10, 3.45 ERA)
- Philadelphia: Zack Wheeler (2022: 23 starts, 11-7, 3.07 ERA)
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds
Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.
Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays -104
- Philadelphia Phillies -112
Over/Under
- Over 8.5 (-104)
- Under 8.5 (-118)
Run Line
- Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+158)
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-192)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction: Toronto to win
Blue Jays vs. Phillies Best Bets: Toronto ML (Best Value: +100 at BetUS) & Toronto/Philadelphia under 8.5 (Best Value: -118 at BetOnline)
Zack Wheeler will be making his first start since August 20, as he went on the injured list with right forearm tendinitis.
Prior to his stint on the IL, Wheeler had struggled in back-to-back starts against the New York Mets, his former team. In the two starts, he gave up ten runs, 14 hits, and five walks in just 11.1 innings.
For the season, Wheeler is 6-3 with a 1.95 ERA in 12 home starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those starts, combined to only five times in 11 road starts.
If Gausman's road form holds, we will be in line for a low-scoring game, and not just in relative terms compared to last night's game.
Home and Away Splits for Kevin Gausman in 2022
- Home (14 starts): 4-7, 4.87 ERA, .308 OBA, 1.44 WHIP
- Away (14 starts): 8-3, 2.45 ERA, .245 OBA, 1.08 WHIP
At home, Gausman is 4-7 with a 4.87 ERA in 14 starts, but he is 8-3 with a 2.45 ERA in 14 road starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in ten of his 14 road starts, while he has done so seven times in his 14 home starts.
He has given up five runs in each of his last two stats, but that is the first time all season that he has had allowed more than three runs in back-to-back starts, and he has yet to allow more than two runs in consecutive road starts.
Gausman has burned me a few times this season, but I have learned to pick my spots with him.
Given that the Blue Jays have as many times in his last 11 home starts as they did in his first three home starts (three), he's either a fade or avoid at home.
But given they are 7-0 in his last seven road starts, and with Philadelphia's current skid also in mind, Gausman and Toronto are a confident play tonight, even with how good Wheeler has been at home for the most part this season.
Also, I like the value on Gausman to go over 6.5 strikeouts tonight. He has recorded 7+ Ks 14 times this season, with nine of those times coming on the road and 11 coming when he has pitched at least six innings.
If Gausman goes at least six innings, which he has done ten times on the road this season, his night should finish with at least seven strikeouts.
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