Mets vs. Brewers (September 21): Milwaukee seeks to salvage series finale after missing major opportunity

Eddie Griffin

The Atlanta Braves continue to win, but so do the New York Mets, and after a big rally last night in Milwaukee, the NL East leaders have a sweep in their sights in this afternoon’s series finale.

After getting to Corbin Burnes and getting the best of the Burnes vs. Max Scherzer mound matchup in Monday’s opener, the Mets found themselves down 4-0 after five innings.

But Pete Alonso made it a one-run game in the top of the sixth with a three-run homer, and an inning later, Francisco Lindor drilled a grand slam to put the Mets ahead and set up an eventual 7-5 win.

New York remains a game ahead of Atlanta in the NL East standings, with two more games played than the Braves.

The Brewers, meanwhile, haven’t gained any ground in their quest for a playoff spot, but they haven’t really lost any either. With the Phillies losing their fifth straight game last night, Milwaukee remains 2.5 games back of Philadelphia for the final NL wild-card berth.

Time is running out on the Brewers though, as they have just 14 games left to overhaul either the Phillies or San Diego Padres. A win in today’s matchup is a must.

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: New York Mets (95-55, 45-29 away, 1st in the NL East) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (78-70, 41-30 home, 2nd in the NL Central)
  • Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
  • Date: Wednesday, September 21, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:10 p.m. Eastern Time (1:10 p.m. local time)
  • How to Watch Mets vs. Brewers: MLB Network

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Matchup

  • New York: Taijuan Walker (2022: 26 starts, 12-4, 3.42 ERA)
  • Milwaukee: Adrian Houser (2022: 20 appearances – 19 starts, 6-9, 4.85 ERA)

Mets vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. This article may also include odds frmo our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Moneyline

  • New York Mets -134
  • Milwaukee Brewers +114

Over/Under

  • Over 8.5 (-114)
  • Under 8.5 (-106)

Run Line

  • New York Mets -1.5 (+128)
  • Milwaukee Brewers +1.5 (-154)

New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Mets vs. Brewers Prediction: Milwaukee to win

Mets vs. Brewers Best Bets: New York/Milwaukee over 8.5 (Best Value: -114 at FanDuel & BetRivers), Milwaukee team total over 4 runs (Best Value: -102 at FanDuel) & Milwaukee ML (Best Value: +114 at FanDuel)

In his first 16 starts this season, Walker gave up three or more runs only five times and posted a 2.55 ERA (26 earned runs in 91.2 innings pitched). But in his last ten starts, he has given up three or more runs six times and has an ERA of 5.00 (28 ER in 50.1 IP).

In those ten games, there have been nine or more combined runs six times, including three of five road games.

Houser’s starts also favor there being plenty of runs again today. There have been nine or more combined runs in 12 of Houser’s 19 starts this season, including six of his nine home starts.

Out of his last 11 starts, there have been nine or more runs nine times, and Houser’s performances have had a big hand in that. In that stretch, he has a 6.62 ERA and has allowed 37 earned runs in just 50.1 innings.

The Brewers have been swept only twice all season, with their lone home sweep coming at the hands of the Phillies in June, during a period in which Milwaukee lost eight straight and 10 of 11.

Milwaukee is just 3-6 as a home underdog this season, but I do like them to take out a little frustration and hit their way to a win over the Mets. After winning five times in Houser’s first 16 starts this year, the Brewers have won his last three starts and are good value to make it four straight today.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.