The Atlanta Braves are north of the border for a three game series against the Toronto Blue Jays. They successfully won last night, and given this is the only meeting between these teams, they'll want to solidify a series win tonight.
Toronto is 9-8 this season, posting a 5-3 record at home. But giving up 8 runs like they did last night is not sustainable, and Kevin Gausman will look to change things up tonight. Toronto is hitting over .260 as a team, ranking in the Top 5 in the MLB, but their rotation is allowing over 3.5 runs per nine innings.
As for the Braves, they have started slow. They are just 5-11 this year, playing 11 games on the road and losing 9 of them. Spencer Schwellenbach is on the mound tonight, which certainly helps their chances. He has a sub 0.50 ERA and a sub 0.65 WHIP through 20 innings this season. But will the Blue Jays light him up at home?
We've got a two man hit parlay so let's talk about it. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies both to get a hit tonight for even money.
Let's start with the matchup. Kevin Gausman throws three pitches: a 94 mph four seam, an 86 mph splitter, and an 84 mph slider with just 1.6 inches of break. He doesn't have a deep arsenal, and he throws his fastball over 56% of the time, and the splitter 32%. It's a bit easier for hitters to know what's coming.
Riley has a great matchup and hard contact rating against Gausman according to batters-box.com (Do NOT Forget the Hyphen). He's also on a seven game hitting streak, with multiple hits in six of those contests. Riley has hits in 11/16 games this season, he is batting .288 for the Braves, .275 against RHP, and has two singles in three at bats against Gausman. I think he can keep it going and inspire the rest of the Atlanta bats to come alive.
Ozzie Albies is on his own seven game hitting streak and also has an above average matchup against Gausman, plus an ELITE fastball rating, which we know Gausman throws over half the time. He has hits in 12/18 games, batting .250 and .273 against RHP. Albies is 0/3 with a strikeout against this pitcher, but he's seeing the ball well recently and doesn't have to worry about a multiple pitches.
For plus money, give me both of these guys to get a hit today on the road.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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