Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: Will Antonelli Claim a Third Consecutive Win?

After a five-week break, the Formula 1 season resumes today with the first U.S. stop of the season, the Miami Grand Prix.

With the Bahrain Grand Prix (scheduled for April 12) and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix (scheduled for April 19) both canceled due to the Iran war, no races took place in April, and the calendar for the 2026 season now consists of 22 races instead of the original 24.

The belated fourth Grand Prix of the season was scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, but it appears the weather gods were as impatient for the return of Formula 1 as anyone else. Due to the threat of inclement weather, the race's start time is now 1 p.m. ET.

When the lights go out at the Miami International Autodrome this afternoon, Kimi Antonelli will lead the line in pursuit of his third consecutive Grand Prix victory.

Antonelli had a forgettable sprint race yesterday as he came in sixth, nearly 14 seconds behind sprint winner Lando Norris. He more than made up for it by claiming his third consecutive Grand Prix pole ahead of Max Verstappen, who recorded his best qualifying result of the season.

After yesterday's sprint results, Antonelli enters the Miami Grand Prix with a seven-point lead over Mercedes teammate George Russell. A further 13 points behind Russell is Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, who has started well this season.

2026 Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship Standings

Antonelli is poised to increase his lead, and the numbers favor that outcome. At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the 19-year-old sits ahead of Verstappen, Leclerc, and Norris.

2026 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of 8:00 a.m. ET Sunday, May 3, 2026.

Probabilities are as of 8:00 a.m. ET Sunday, May 3, 2026.

Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix Qualifying Results and Starting Grid

• *Hadjar qualified ninth but will start from pit lane after being disqualified from qualifying due to a technical infraction.

Miami Grand Prix Predictions and Picks

Kimi Antonelli to win (+145 at Lucky Rebel)

I purposely avoid race winner picks for the most part both Formula 1 and NASCAR because better value typically lies elsewhere. In NASCAR betting, a larger field and more parity limit the value of investing much in such picks. In Formula 1, odds for favorites often land outside of my ideal range.

That was the case for the first three races, but this will likely be one of the better prices you get for a race favorite this season.

Does the potential for a wet-weather race throw a notable variable into the mix? It does. Rain could alter strategy, and Antonelli's expected challengers have a significant experience edge.

But sometimes rolling with the hot hand is the best move, and that is the case here.

Ollie Bearman to Finish in the Top 10 (-120 at Lucky Rebel)

After finishing seventh in the Australian Grand Prix and fifth in the Chinese Grand Prix (and eighth in the sprint in Shanghai), the Japanese Grand Prix did not go well for Bearman. After failing to make it out of Q1 at Suzuka, he crashed out of the race early.

But I like the 20-year-old to bounce back with a points finish in Miami. Antonelli is flying the flag for the youth movement in Formula 1, but Bearman deserves some flowers as well.

In addition to finishing in the points nine times in his first full season, Bearman came in 11^th or 12^th eight other times across the 24-race slate.

He looks well on his way to bettering last season's results, and I like his chances to land in the top 10 in Miami. Last year, he moved from 19^th to 12^th across the first half of the race before his engine failed on lap 28. In a better car and with more experience under his belt, I like his prospects for today.

Will he outperform his qualifying results by five spots like he did in Melbourne and Shanghai? He may not, but even a small bump will see this one cash.