Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix Predictions & Picks: A New Season Begins in Melbourne
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sat Mar 07, 2026, 6:14 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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It feels like just yesterday that Lando Norris captured his maiden Formula 1 World Drivers' Championship title at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, doesn't it? Three months after last season ended at Yas Marina, a new season begins tonight in Melbourne, the site of the Australian Grand Prix.
Last season, Lando Norris kicked off what would be a run to the title with a victory from pole in Australia, while home favorite and McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri finished eighth.
This year, George Russell will hope for the same outcome. The Mercedes man, who opens the season as the favorite for to win what would be his first World Drivers' Championship title, claimed pole ahead of Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli. Russell (1:18:518) and Antonelli (1:18:811) were the only two drivers to record a time inside 1:19:000 in Q3.
Isack Hadjar, in his first race for Red Bull, put in a solid shift to slot into third, but it was a different story for teammate Max Verstappen. Verstappen crashed during the first qualifying session and was unable to set a time, and he will start 20th in the 22-car field.
Just as Russell and Antonelli will occupy the front two spots on the first starting grid, they sit atop Australian Grand Prix winner odds at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, well ahead of Charles Leclerc, Piastri (who will start fifth), Hadjar, and Lewis Hamilton, who will open his 20th F1 season by starting seventh in Melbourne, where he won in 2008 and 2015.
Odds to Win the Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -325 | 76.47% | 67.07% |
| Kimi Antonelli | +650 | 13.33% | 11.69% |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 | 7.69% | 6.75% |
| Oscar Piastri | +2200 | 4.35% | 3.81% |
| Isack Hadjar | +3300 | 2.94% | 2.58% |
| Lewis Hamilton | +4000 | 2.44% | 2.14% |
| Lando Norris | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.72% |
| Max Verstappen | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.31% |
| Arvid Lindblad | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.58% |
| Liam Lawson | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.58% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.44% |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.29% |
| Esteban Ocon | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.25% |
| Oliver Bearman | +35000 | 0.28% | 0.25% |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.18% |
| Alex Albon | +75000 | 0.13% | 0.12% |
| Franco Colapinto | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.09% |
| Carlos Sainz | +200000 | 0.05% | 0.04% |
| Fernando Alonso | +200000 | 0.05% | 0.04% |
| Lance Stroll | +300000 | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| Sergio Perez | +300000 | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| Valtteri Bottas | +300000 | 0.03% | 0.03% |
Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix Starting Grid
| Pos. | Driver (Team) | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Russell (Mercedes) | 1:19.507 | 1:18.934 | 1:18.518 |
| 2 | Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) | 1:20.120 | 1:19.435 | 1:18.811 |
| 3 | Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing–Red Bull Ford) | 1:20.023 | 1:19.653 | 1:19.303 |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) | 1:20.226 | 1:19.357 | 1:19.327 |
| 5 | Oscar Piastri (McLaren–Mercedes) | 1:19.664 | 1:19.525 | 1:19.380 |
| 6 | Lando Norris (McLaren–Mercedes) | 1:20.010 | 1:19.882 | 1:19.475 |
| 7 | Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) | 1:19.811 | 1:19.921 | 1:19.478 |
| 8 | Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls–Red Bull Ford) | 1:20.491 | 1:20.144 | 1:19.994 |
| 9 | Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls–Red Bull Ford) | 1:20.409 | 1:19.971 | 1:21.247 |
| 10 | Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) | 1:20.495 | 1:20.221 | No Time |
| 11 | Nico Hülkenberg (Audi) | 1:21.024 | 1:20.303 | — |
| 12 | Oliver Bearman (Haas–Ferrari) | 1:21.247 | 1:20.311 | — |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon (Haas–Ferrari) | 1:20.759 | 1:20.491 | — |
| 14 | Pierre Gasly (Alpine–Mercedes) | 1:21.138 | 1:20.501 | — |
| 15 | Alexander Albon (Atlassian Williams–Mercedes) | 1:21.051 | 1:20.941 | — |
| 16 | Franco Colapinto (Alpine–Mercedes) | 1:21.200 | 1:21.270 | — |
| 17 | Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin Aramco–Honda) | 1:21.969 | — | — |
| 18 | Sergio Pérez (Cadillac–Ferrari) | 1:22.605 | — | — |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac–Ferrari) | 1:23.244 | — | — |
| 20 | Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing–Red Bull Ford) | No Time | — | — |
| 21 | Carlos Sainz Jr. (Atlassian Williams–Mercedes) | No Time | — | — |
| 22 | Lance Stroll (Aston Martin Aramco–Honda) | No Time | — | — |
Australian Grand Prix Predictions and Picks
Nico Hulkenberg to Finish in the Top 10 (-125 at Lucky Rebel)
As this is the first race with new cars and new regulations, many picks that may have decent value on paper are a shot in the dark.
That includes this one, which is based almost solely on how well Hulkenberg has done in this race in his Formula 1 career. Hulkenberg has finished in the points in the Australian Grand Prix eight times, including each of his last five starts.
Throughout his career, Hulkenberg has built a strong reputation of adapting and getting everything he can out of his ability and the cars he has driven, and that makes him an especially appealing option in this spot.
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