Paraguay vs. France Picks and Predictions: July 4, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Jul 04, 2026, 9:45 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
FIFA World Cup
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+2.0
-112
2
+132o
+1950
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.75
-128
3
+116u
-500
Not only do we get to watch Morocco and Canada battle in Houston, our other Round of 16 match today happens in Philadelphia as the tournament favorites, France, take on Paraguay. The South Americans had a miraculous win over Germany, moving on via penalty kicks after a full 120 minutes of play. Germany had the winning goal taken back by VAR, and Paraguayans will certainly be happy for that decision. But can they make it two massive wins in a row by taking down Kylian Mbappe and France? I doubt it, but check out our favorite picks below.
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.
Paraguay vs. France FIFA World Cup Betting Insights
Paraguay star Julian Enciso leads his country against the tournament favorites today
France has rolled through anyone who dares stand in their way. Sure, it took them a little to get things going, as they were held scoreless by Senegal for the first 60 minutes or so. But then they exploded for three goals in the final 30. Then they shutout Iraq in the rain and beat Norway's back ups, 4-1. Finally, in the Round of 32, they annihilated Sweden, winning 3-0 with ease. Offensively, and defensively, France is more than fine.
But Paraguay is stubborn. After taking a lead against Germany they essentially parked the bus and made it very tough for the Germans to do anything offensive. But we all know how that ended. Sitting on a one goal lead has not been good for teams this tournament. Will Paraguay even lead this match at any point?
Matchup Information – Paraguay vs. France – July 4
- Venue & Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
- Kick Off: 5:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX/Peacock
Paraguay vs. France Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, as of July 4, 2026, at 9:27 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus as well as 50 slot spins immediately in your account and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Paraguay +1500
- Draw +600
- France -550
To Advance
- Paraguay +1000
- France -1900
Spread
- Paraguay +2 (-122)
- France -2 (+102)
Total
- Over 3 (+102)
- Under 3 (-122)
Paraguay vs. France FIFA World Cup Picks
William Saliba and the French back line have been rock solid all tournament long
Best Bet: Paraguay/France Under 3 (-122) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This is a line France could clear by themselves, but ultimately I don't see them getting there. I also do not see Paraguay contributing on the offensive scoresheet, so take that as you will. This is likely a 2-0 France win in my eyes.
Aside from the first half against the United States, Paraguay's defense has been fine, and even looked stellar. They shutout Turkey and Australia, and again, only allowed one goal to Germany. Offensively, Paraguay does not have it. They put up 0.35 xG against Germany, 0.24 against Australia, 0.32 against Turkey and just 0.54 against the United States. With those numbers, they won't sniff a goal against France.
But I expect them to hold their own for 90 minutes. Will they earn a draw and force extra time? Probably not. But I also don't see them letting France run up the score for more than a couple goals.
Prediction: France Wins 2-0 (+475)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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