Houston and Indy Search For First Win: Texans vs. Colts – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 8:06 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.0
-115
43
-110u
-121
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+2.5
-105
42
-110o
+125
Another week of NFL action is happening this Sunday, and there's a couple of divisional matchups that I've got my eye on. Check out my thoughts as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North, but here I'll turn my attention to the AFC South, as two 0-2 teams meet at Lucas Oil Stadium. Both the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are winless through two weeks of the season, will one of them be able to turn it around this Sunday? Tap in for our expert NFL picks to see if you agree with their analysis and insights in this contest.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Information
Daniel Jones and the Colts host the Houston Texans as both teams search for their first win of the season
The Texans went toe-to-toe with the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 at home, narrowly losing 36-31. However they were not too threatening last Sunday. Houston put up just six points (two field goals) against the Cincinnati Bengals, going a measly 5/17 on third down. I already didn't have much faith in the Texans' offense. And although I do think it proves Cincy's defense has improved, it also confirms my suspicions with this C.J. Stroud led franchise.
As for the Colts, they allowed 41 points to the Ravens in Week 1 at home, and followed it up by giving up 33 to the Chiefs, losing in overtime at Arrowhead Stadium. Indianapolis managed just 251 total yards against Baltimore, going 3/10 on third down. While they showed signs of life against Kansas City, I'm not sure it will translate against a defense that is very familiar with their scheme.
Matchup Information – Houston vs. Indianapolis – September 27
- Venue & Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kick Off: 1:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Texans vs. Colts Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 5:21 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Texans -1.5 (-110)
- Colts +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Texans -121
- Colts +101
Total
- Over 42.5 (-110)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Colts NFL Analysis and Insights
Last season, Indianapolis was just 2-4 to the under in divisional games, but both of those unders happened at Lucas Oil Stadium. As for the Texans, they were 4-2 to the under, including low scoring games in all three divisional matchups on the road. Therefore, history is on our side, even though the Colts are allowing 37 points per game through two weeks of the season.
While Houston's defense has also given up about 28 per game, I think both of these teams will figure it out this week.
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts NFL Expert Picks
Can Houston's defense find a way to slow down the Colts who are scoring 25.5 points per game?
Best Bet: Texans/Colts Under 42.5 (-110) BetOnline
In last year's matchups, these two teams split on the total. During the opener in Indianapolis, they only score 36 points with the over/under set at 44.5. But in the second matchup, in Week 18 in Houston, they soared over the 37.5 point total, combining for 68 points in a 38-30 shootout. I do not care, I plan on this being a low scoring contest.
The thinking behind the NFL Divisional Unders theory, is that we have two teams VERY familiar with each other's offensive scheme and tendencies. Obviously personnel changes a bit from year to year, but with the same QB and head coach, it makes it easier for opponents to figure out what you like to do offensive, and come up with a game plan to combat it. Plus, my thinking across all sports, is that in big games, defenses show out. Whether it be a soccer cup final or an NFL divisional matchup, the stakes are a bit higher. Teams want bragging rights, therefore they are going to play tougher on defense, and be slightly more cautious on offense. They won't want to give their opponent anything cheap and try to play from behind.
Look for both defenses to keep the football in front of them. The Texans should stack the box, forcing Daniel Jones to throw, especially after losing Alec Pierce for several weeks. Neither of these offenses are worth writing home about, but their defenses should come alive as they fight for their first win of the season.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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