AFC North Battle in Pittsburgh: Bengals vs. Steelers – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 5:02 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.5
-105
42.5
-110u
-180
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-110
42
-105o
+163
I love a divisional matchup in the NFL, especially one from the AFC North. They produced hard nosed, tough, American football, and we are on for a treat anytime two of their teams meet. This Sunday, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers taking on the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium. Mike McCarthy's team is over a field goal underdog at home, will he and Aaron Rodgers be able to pull off the upset? Cincinnati is off to a hot 2-0 start, while the Steelers looked lifeless in New England after beating the Falcons in Week 1. Read our expert NFL picks below to see what they're wagering on in this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Game Information
Will Aaron Rodgers and Pittsburgh find a way to upset the Bengals this weekend at home?
Pittsburgh is beat up. Both running backs, Rico Dowdle and Jaylen Warren are questionable, along with new wideout Michael Pittman Jr. Warren practiced on Thursday, Dowdle did not but was out of a walking boot, and Pittman was limited. Plus both corners are dealing with injuries as well. I already didn't have a lot of faith in the Pittsburgh offense. A 42 year old quarterback with his washed up head coach reliving the glory days probably isn't a recipe for success. The defense has always been the strength of this Steelers team, and they'll need it to slow down Cincinnati.
As for the Bengals, the offense has been firing, putting up 26.5 points per game this season. However the defense is much improved, holding the Texans to just two field goals on Sunday in Houston. We knew the defense had to be fixed, and so far it certainly looks to be that way.
Matchup Information – Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh – September 27
- Venue & Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh, PA
- Date: Sunday, September 27, 2026
- Kick Off: 1:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 4:24 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Bengals -3.5 (-105)
- Steelers +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Bengals -190
- Steelers +165
Total
- Over 42.5 (-110)
- Under 42.5 (-110)
Bengals vs. Steelers NFL Analysis and Insights
While I do think this is a game Cincinnati wins, I will not be backing them in any form. On the road, in a divisional game, no thank you. If you forced me to bet a side, I would reluctantly take the 3.5 with the hosts. However I certainly have a play on the total. I've been tracking NFL Divisional unders for the past year and into this season, and I think we have enough data to turn it into action.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL Expert Picks
Dexter Lawrence is still searching for his sack as a Cincinnati Bengal
Best Bet: Bengals/Steelers Under 42.5 (-110) BetOnline
Last year, NFL Divisional Unders hit at 52.08%, just under the 52.36% break even point. However this year, they are off to a 6-4 start. But it gets deeper. Last season, even with their horrible defense, the Cincinnati Bengals were 5-1 to the under in divisional games, including all three on the road. On the other sideline, the Steelers were 3-3 to the under in divisional games but 2-1 at home.
I understand this is just one season of data, but so far this year, the Bengals are 1-1 to the under while Pittsburgh has stayed under in both of their games. Scoring only three points usually helps a game stay that way. I have booked this at 43.5, paying a buck 15 to do so, but I still think 42.5 is fine. If it drops down another point, I may suggest holding off.
Cincinnati's defense has forced four turnovers so far this year, and held Tampa Bay to just 282 total yards. Last week, the Texans were just 5/17 on third down and 0/4 in the red zone. Pittsburgh forced two takeaways against the Falcons, holding them to less than 250 total yards in Week 1, allowing just a 16.7% conversion rate on third down. They also forced two turnovers against New England, allowing them to go just 4/12 on third down, while the Steelers had that same 16% success rate they forced a week earlier. Not great offense, give me a low scoring slugfest.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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