A Real Offense: Jaguars vs. Patriots – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 9:20 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-110
46
-110u
+135
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
100
46
-110o
-155
Welcome to my Jaguars vs. Patriots prediction and expert picks for Week 3! Jacksonville returns home after a tough trip to Denver, while New England comes in off a win over Pittsburgh.
This is a fascinating AFC matchup between two 1-1 teams. The Patriots bounced back nicely in Week 2, but they're still missing A.J. Brown for multiple weeks. The Jaguars came up short against Denver, yet this looks like a spot where Jacksonville's offensive weapons and defensive structure could create problems for Drake Maye and New England.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more for Week 3, check out our NFL Picks Page and NFL Odds Page. Now, let's dive into my Jaguars vs. Patriots predictions for Sunday.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Expert Picks for Week 3
New England beat Pittsburgh 20-3 in Week 2, and it was a necessary response after the Week 1 loss. The Patriots leaned on their defense, played a cleaner game, and got enough from their offense to pull away.
Drake Maye threw for 208 yards with an interception. Romeo Doubs finished with four targets and 96 yards, though much of that production came on one massive chunk play. TreVeyon Henderson was the player who really made things happen, carrying the ball 16 times and ripping off a 39-yard score.
That's the type of explosion New England needs right now.
Henderson looks like the catalyst for an offense that doesn't have many other true game-breakers available. A.J. Brown remains out, and without him, the Patriots don't have a proven target earner who can consistently create explosive plays for Maye.
That's a problem against Jacksonville.
The Jaguars aren't perfect. The offensive line has its issues, and Jacksonville just lost at Denver. But the Broncos were much tougher in Week 2 after an ugly opener, and the Jaguars still have a roster with real balance on both sides of the ball.
Jacksonville ranked highly in EPA per play on offense and defense last year. It has the defensive personnel to make Maye uncomfortable and the offensive weapons to put pressure on a Patriots team that hasn't yet faced a bunch of formidable competition.
Pittsburgh's offense is a complete mess right now. New England also faced a backup quarterback in Week 1. It's difficult to get a true read on the Patriots through two games, especially when the schedule has been so favorable.
That feels familiar.
New England had a relatively soft path last year before coming up short in the Super Bowl. This isn't about taking anything away from the Patriots' defense, which has done what it needed to do. But the Jaguars represent a more difficult all-around matchup.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Game Information
- Location: EverBank Stadium; Jacksonville, Florida
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026
- Kickoff: 1 PM ET
- TV: CBS
Jaguars vs. Patriots Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- New England Patriots +3 (-116)
- New England Patriots Moneyline (+135)
- Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (-104)
- Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (-155)
- Over 46 (-110)
- Under 46 (-110)
Jaguars vs. Patriots Preview: NFL Prediction for Week 3
The chess match here is what makes this game interesting.
According to Fantasy Points data, Jaguars' defensive play-caller Anthony Campanile uses Cover 6 at roughly twice the league-average rate. Josh McDaniels historically hasn't been great against that coverage, and that matchup deserves attention.
Obviously, one defensive coverage isn't going to determine the result of an entire football game. There are a million moving pieces, especially when you're talking about a road game in September. But it's another reason to be concerned about a Patriots offense that doesn't have many explosive answers without Brown.
New England needs Henderson to create something. He's got the juice, and he showed it with that 39-yard run against Pittsburgh. But he can't be the only guy who scares Jacksonville.
Maye can still make big throws, and Doubs is capable of popping for a chunk gain. But Jacksonville has more offensive options on the other side. Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Brenton Strange give Trevor Lawrence several places to go with the ball.
Christian Gonzalez will likely spend plenty of time shadowing one of Jacksonville's top options. But Lawrence shouldn't need to force targets into Gonzalez's coverage. The Jaguars have enough pieces to find the matchup they want on any given dropback.
The other side of this matchup is even more interesting.
The Patriots have blitzed at the seventh-highest rate in football through two games, and defensive coordinator Zak Kuhr has historically been willing to bring pressure. There's no reason to think that changes against Lawrence.
The issue is that Liam Coen has been a very good play-caller against the blitz. Jacksonville has performed well in EPA per dropback when opponents bring extra rushers, which could turn New England's aggressiveness into an advantage for Lawrence and this Jaguars passing attack.
Jaguars vs. Patriots Expert Pick: Jaguars -3
I liked Jacksonville by a nose before digging into this one. After looking at the matchup, I like the Jaguars a little more.
The Patriots' defense has been good. I'm not ignoring that. But Pittsburgh is an offensive disaster right now, and New England opened against Drew Lock in Week 1. It's hard to know exactly how much we should take from those first two games.
Best Bet: Jaguars -3 (-104) | BetOnline.ag
Meanwhile, Jacksonville gets a Patriots offense without A.J. Brown, which is a huge loss. Henderson is explosive, but he can't be the only guy New England counts on to generate chunk plays. If Jacksonville can keep him from ripping off another explosive run, the Patriots could struggle to consistently move the ball.
But at home, with more playmaking options and a scheme matchup that could favor Coen and Lawrence, I'll lay the field goal.
Give me Jacksonville -3.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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