New York Jets 2026 Win Total Future: Will Geno Save Aaron Glenn?

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Mon Aug 10, 2026, 8:27 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

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The 2026 NFL Season is almost upon us, as preseason games start this Thursday, after a VERY entertaining Hall of Fame Game last week. Over at Betting News, we have been diving into plenty of futures for this NFL season, and you can find divisional previews, fantasy advice, and betting insights. But here, I'm going to talk about why I'm fading that green team from New York. The Jets win total is set at just 5.5, a number they haven't cleared in the past two seasons. Will they do it this year?

Check out our NFL Divisional Previews

New York Jets Team Preview & Schedule

Can a 36 year old Geno Smith lead the Jets to at least six win this season? - New York Jets Win Total

Can a 36 year old Geno Smith lead the Jets to at least six win this season?

Jets Offense

The Jets made a couple of massive moves this offseason offensively. They signed Geno Smith to come back and play quarterback for the team, and they brought in another weapon alongside Garrett Wilson, as former Colts wide out Adonai Mitchell joins the team. They also look to be starting two first round picks in Omar Cooper Jr. as their WR3, and Kenyon Sadiq as their tight end.

Do we trust Geno to get this offense rolling after just 19 touchdowns and 17 interceptions with Las Vegas last year? Sure, he balled out in Seattle. But this man will be 36 years old in Week 5, and ultimately it does not excite me that he is coming back. The Jets' offense will likely be bottom five in points scored once again, even with Frank Reich coming in to be the new OC.

Jets Defense

Defensively, the Jets made some moves as well, but let me pick them apart. They added LB Demario Davis and FS Minkah Fitzpatrick. Davis just had a career high 143 total tackles with New Orleans last season, but talking age, he is also 37 years old. Fitzpatrick comes over from Miami, and he doesn't really move the needle for me either. If this was 2019, maybe I'd be more pumped about those two signings.

The Jets defense was second to last in points allowed last year, so anything is an improvement. Brian Duker has a lot of work on his hands as the new DC.

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Breece Hall was almost traded at the deadline last NFL season. Will he be with the Jets for all 17 games? New York Jets Win Total Picks

Breece Hall was almost traded at the deadline last NFL season. Will he be with the Jets for all 17 games?

Jets 2026 Schedule

  • 9/13: @ Tennessee
  • 9/20: vs. Green Bay
  • 9/27: @ Detroit
  • 10/4: @ Chicago
  • 10/11: vs. Cleveland
  • 10/18: @ New England
  • 10/25: vs. Miami
  • 11/1: vs. Las Vegas
  • 11/8: @ Kansas City
  • 11/15: @ Buffalo
  • 11/22: @ Los Angeles (Chargers)
  • 11/29: @ Miami
  • 12/13: vs. Denver
  • 12/20: @ Arizona
  • 12/27: vs. New England
  • 1/3: vs. Minnesota
  • Week 18: @ Buffalo

New York Jets Win Total Picks and Predictions

Pressure is on Aaron Glenn has he takes on his second year as head coach of the Jets - New York Jets Win Total

Pressure is on Aaron Glenn has he takes on his second year as head coach of the Jets

New York Jets Record Prediction: 4-13

Best Bet: New York Jets Under 5.5 Wins (+100) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Let's talk about this schedule. We know the Jets have to play the other AFC East teams twice. That means facing the Bills and Patriots for four games. I see four losses there. We'll get to Miami in a second. The Jets also face the entire NFC North, and the entire AFC West. The North is arguably the toughest division in all of football, and ultimately I see New York losing all four to those teams.

Plus, they should get beat by at least three teams in the AFC West (Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos). Add all of those tough games up, and there's potentially 11 losses for the Jets already. Will they compete in one or two of these games? Sure. Divisional games are always tough, and maybe they catch someone else sleeping. But I expect at the very least 10 losses in those 11 games mentioned, which will get us almost to the finish line.

The Jets remaining six games are hosting Cleveland and Las Vegas, facing Tennessee and Arizona on the road, and then two games against Miami. Essentially all we are looking for is one loss amongst these six games, maybe two. I am willing to bet against the New York Jets being absolutely perfect in all of these games, leaving me with only one choice: to fade them this season.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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