2026 AFC East NFL Divisional Preview: Will Bills Reclaim the Top of the East?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Aug 06, 2026, 3:38 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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NFL Football is right around the corner, and we even have the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday, August 6. With pigskin back on our screens, let's check out our preview of the AFC East, which has turned into a clear two horse race. Will New England end up on top once again? Or will the Bills take back the division? Can the Dolphins or Jets surprise anyone? Find out with our expert analysis below.
Check out our other NFL Divisional Previews
AFC East Divisional History
Drake Maye and the Patriots went all the way to the Super Bowl last year. Can they win back to back divisional titles?
Past 10 AFC East Champions
- 2025: New England Patriots 14-3
- 2024: Buffalo Bills 13-4
- 2023: Buffalo Bills 11-6
- 2022: Buffalo Bills 13-3
- 2021: Buffalo Bills 11-6
- 2020: Buffalo Bills 13-3
- 2019: New England Patriots 12-4
- 2018: New England Patriots 11-5
- 2017: New England Patriots 13-3
- 2016: New England Patriots 14-2
Two teams have topped this division each of the last 10 seasons. In fact, Miami won the AFC East last in 2008, and New York did so in 2002. But this year, oddsmakers clearly think it is a two horse race, as there is little faith in the Jets and Dolphins.
AFC East Betting Odds
Josh Allen has a new head coach in Buffalo, but the Bills are still the betting favorites to win the AFC East
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Odds to Win AFC East
- Buffalo Bills -145
- New England Patriots +125
- New York Jets +2000
- Miami Dolphins +4000
AFC East Team Previews
Joe Brady is the new head coach of the Buffalo Bills this season
Buffalo Bills – 10.5 Wins (Over -145/Under +115)
Sean McDermott is out, and Joe Brady is in as new Head Coach of the Buffalo Bills. After years of winning the division, making the playoffs and coming up short in the postseason, they let the head honcho go. Now Josh Allen has no one else to blame. They added DJ Moore to be the top pass catcher, along with Khalil Shakir, Josh Palmer and Keon Coleman. James Cook is back in the backfield.
Defensively, the Bills added Bradley Chubb to play outside linebacker. He only had 47 total tackles last season, but does have eight forced fumbles in the last two years. The Bills are the biggest favorite to win their division in the entire league, and for good reason. They play the NFC North which will be tough, and have road games against the Rams, Packers, and Broncos. Asking for 11 wins shouldn't be too much, but I'm not willing to pay that juice.
De'Von Achane might be the only good thing this Miami offense has going for them
Miami Dolphins – 4.5 Wins (Over +145/Under -175)
Sorry Dolphins' fans, it's back to the bottom of the AFC East. Miami will be all in on Malik Willis, as Jeff Hafley takes over for Mike McDonald. I don't have much to say about Miami, other than they will be bad.
Tyreek Hill is not on the roster anymore, Jaylen Waddle went to Denver, and obviously Tua is long gone. They might be good enough to split with the Jets, they could beat the Raiders in Week 1, but other than that, I don't see Miami winning more than four games this year, even if they get lucky.
AJ Brown could be a huge help to the Patriots' offense this year
New England Patriots – 9.5 Wins (Over -155/Under +125)
The Super Bowl Runner Ups finally reclaimed the AFC East last season, but odds are they give it back to Buffalo. However signing AJ Brown to catch passes from Drake Maye makes that offense even scarier. But because they finished on top of the division, they have a much tougher schedule than last year.
They open up the season against Seattle on the road, yikes. They also have road games against Chicago, the Chargers, and Kansas City, as well as hosting Denver, Green Bay, and playing the Lions in Munich. The Pats should make their way back to the playoffs, and probably clear their win total. But I wouldn't be willing to pay that juice. If anything, the play with New England would be taking them to repeat as divisional champs (in my opinion).
Geno Smith is back in green for the New York Jets this season
New York Jets – 5.5 Wins (Over -115/Under -115)
Lastly, the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, JETS! They brought back Geno Smith to be their guy, and signed Adonai Mitchell to catch passes alongside Garrett Wilson. Should they have some hope? Not really. But their defense made some positive moves.
Demario Davis is back after eight seasons with the Saints. He's recorded 100+ tackles in nine straight seasons, and 11/14 he's played. They also got Minkah Fitzpatrick to help in the secondary, but he may be past his prime. There are some winnable games for the Jets this season. I could see them having victories at Tennessee, against Cleveland, Miami, and Las Vegas, and even at Arizona late in the year. However you need wins in all of those games (Miami twice) in order to clear the total. I don't see that happening, and honestly, I think every other game on this schedule could be a loss.
I will be fading the Jets, and taking their under 5.5 wins this year at even money.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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