NFL Betting Tips for Player Props: Tight Ends & Why the Big Boys Need More Love this Season
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Thu Aug 27, 2026, 1:21 pm ET
Read Time: 11 minutes
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With NFL football now just two weeks away, it's time to lock in. We've got a season full of wagers ahead of us and before we get there, we need to talk about how the NFL changed last year.
We need to discuss how important the big bodied pass catchers (aka tight ends) have become and how NFL offenses are beginning to use more heavy sets to combat the modern NFL defense.
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For more information on advanced stats and how to find your own edge this year, check out our own Justin Carlucci's advice on advanced data he uses when handicapping the NFL.
Vocabulary
- Personnel/Sets — Combination of players on the field. Corresponds to number of wide receivers, tight ends and running backs on the field.
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- 11 Personnel – 1 RB | 1 TE | 3 WR
- 12 Personnel – 1 RB | 2 TE | 2 WR
- 13 Personnel – 1 RB | 3TE | 1 WR
- 21 Personnel – 2 RB | 1 TE | 2 WR
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- Coverage — How the defense is going to cover and defend opposing receivers (Ex. Man/Zone)
- Shell — Pre-snap structure of the safeties (Ex. 2-Hi)
- Base Defense — Refers to defenses that include 3/4 DL and 3/4 LB (Ex. 4-3/3-4)
- Sub Defense — Refers to 'substitutions' for the DL/LB spot (Ex. Nickel/Dime)
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Defense in the NFL Today
Modern NFL defenses play a majority of zone coverage, they don't blitz as much as they use to and Nickel sets have become the most commonly used defensive set across all 32-teams. This happened over time but it happened because today's NFL is focused on moving the ball through the air.
Zone coverages keep the offense in front of the defense, the limit explosive plays and they're better suited to cover weak spots in your defense; if need be. Zone coverages are better against elite wideouts, better at combating mobile/athletic QBs and most importantly; they limit explosive plays.
With so much focus on the aerial attack, defenses have started running more Nickel/Dime packages and that's because of an increase in 3-WR sets over the last few years. We're seeing more sub-packages on defense and it's helped a ton against these pass-heavy offenses.
So why's this important? Last year we saw a dramatic shift in the modern offense. We saw more 2-TE sets, we saw increased targets for the position and we're seeing a huge bump in both usage and snap count for the TE position group.
I dove into specific coverages and how to use that to your advantage when handicapping the NFL. For more information on that, click here.
Tight End Usage (2020-2025)
| Season | Receptions | Share of Rec | Targets | Target Share | Rec Yards | Yard Share | Route Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2,438 | 20.8% | 3,477 | 20.9% | 26,293 | 20.2% | 22.3% |
| 2021 | 2,601 | 21.5% | 3,635 | 21.0% | 27,506 | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| 2022 | 2,516 | 21.7% | 3,504 | 21.1% | 26,427 | 20.8% | 23.0% |
| 2023 | 2,687 | 22.8% | 3,652 | 21.6% | 27,393 | 21.3% | 23.2% |
| 2024 | 2,767 | 23.8% | 3,669 | 22.4% | 27,774 | 21.9% | 23.7% |
| 2025 | 2,869 | 25.6% | 3,813 | 23.9% | 29,094 | 23.8% | 24.4% |
From 2020 → 2025:
- Reception Share: 20.8% → 25.6%; +4.8%
- Target Share: 20.9% → 23.9%; +3.0%
- Receiving-yard Share: 20.2%; → 23.8%; +3.6%
- Route Share: 22.3% → 24.4%; +2.0%
- Passing-play Participation Share: 24.2% → 25.7%; +1.5%
Personnel
When you look at personnel usage over the last few years, it tells a similar story. Offenses went from using 12-personnel at an 18% rate in 2022, to a 23% rate in 2025.
The bigger difference is in the usage of 11-personnel. In 2025 we saw teams use 11-personnel on 56.4% of offensive plays, that's down from 62% in 2023.
Usage of all sets that include 2+ TEs went from 21% in 2020 to 25.3% in 2025. The biggest jump came from 2024 to 2025, going from 22.6% to 25.3%. The percentage points seem small, but when added to the increased usage we've seen from the position; we see a pattern start to develop.
Teams are using more heavy sets for a variety of reasons. The TE position today, as a whole, might be the deepest it's ever been. We've got young studs like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Tucker Kraft and Colston Loveland.
We've got vets like Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Hunter Henry and even David Njoku still doing their thing. Outside of the studs, plenty of teams have made it a point to bring in multiple options at the TE spot.
Who's Leaning into it?
The Los Angeles Chargers are the perfect example. After a breakout year from their rookie Oronde Gadsen, the Chargers signed David Njoku to a 1-year deal to help bolster the position.
In the exact same city, the Los Angeles Rams have a similar setup. The Rams have a TE room that consists of Colby Parkinson (TE1), Tyler Higbee and Terrance Ferguson. This trio combined for 14 touchdowns last year, with each guy scoring at least 3 times.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers, it's Pat Friermuth and the young Darnell Washington on the field. This is the same team that traded for Jonnnu Smith and saw significant snaps go to Connor Heyward.
Last year we saw the Baltimore Ravens run a lot of 12-personnel with both Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely sharing the field a ton. The Chicago Bears have an offensive-minded head coach in Ben Johnson and loves his TEs. We saw both Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland play big roles for that offense.
Lastly, a duo I think is a little slept on; Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. In 4-games last year without Bowers, Mayer averaged 6 targets per game and recorded 4.5 receptions per game. He averaged 49.0 yards per game and caught just 1 touchdown. This was with Geno Smith under center and Pete Carroll on the sidelines.
Heavy Set Demons
| Team | Route Share | Routes | Receptions | Targets | TEs with 200+ Routes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 31.2% | 1,107 | 164 | 210 | 2 |
| Baltimore | 30.2% | 684 | 85 | 112 | 2 |
| New Orleans | 29.5% | 759 | 105 | 140 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | 28.9% | 865 | 113 | 154 | 3 |
| Cleveland | 28.6% | 860 | 113 | 164 | 2 |
| LA Rams | 28.3% | 796 | 103 | 150 | 1 |
| Las Vegas | 27.8% | 741 | 118 | 150 | 2 |
| Chicago | 27.1% | 802 | 92 | 132 | 2 |
Why's It Matter?
In a league that changes so much year to year, it's still rare we see a change this dramatic. The biggest indication of change is the drop in 11-personnel. Sets with 3-WRs had almost become the norm, it gave you speed, it gave you alignment flexibility with your best receiver and it continued to work.
Defenses across the league have found an answer and now offenses have adjusted. Production from the TE spot is up across the league and not just from the top guys at the position. Depth at the TE position this year is very real and we haven't even talked about this year's draft.
This year we saw 19 TEs taken in the NFL Draft, the most ever in the modern draft era. Teams I listed above that took another TE in this draft include: the Bears, Rams, Ravens, Saints and Browns.
If you still don't believe me, take a look at the table below. You can see the number of 'impactful' TEs in the league has continued to go up and this doesn't even account for their impact on the run game.
When you move away from 11-personnel, you force the defense to match. You force the defense out of those 2-Hi shells and into a less run-friendly defensive set.
This opens up your offense for more play action, more motion and the playbook breaks wide open. This allows for more misdirection and a harder to read offense.
More motion, more play action and more time under center; all three have lead to positive outcomes over the last few years and it's time we familiarize ourselves with this pattern.
TE(s) with Meaningful Production (2020-2025)
| Year | 25+ Rec | 40+ Rec | 50+ Targets | 400+ Yards | 200+ Routes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 39 | 22 | 26 | 24 | 45 |
| 2021 | 39 | 22 | 25 | 24 | 41 |
| 2022 | 41 | 22 | 27 | 25 | 45 |
| 2023 | 41 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 46 |
| 2024 | 39 | 32 | 31 | 31 | 44 |
| 2025 | 45 | 28 | 28 | 29 | 48 |
How do we take advantage?
This is where it gets fun. In the past, your backup TE was usually someone who caught 10-15 passes a season and spent 90% of his time blocking. In today's NFL, that's no longer the case.
Backups are legitimate receivers now and you can see that with the decrease in actual pass blocks by TEs over the last few years. Pass blocking at the TE position has gone down approximately 11% since 2020 and their share of pass blocking has gone from 48% down to 42%.
Back up TEs on most of these teams provide significant value to the team's offense and that's where we can take advantage. One place on the field that we see a lot more 2-TE sets is in the redzone. It gives teams flexibility between running/passing the ball, it gives teams more blockers and it keeps defenses guessing.
With the increase in talent at the TE position, it's no surprise seeing how much they impacted scoring last year.
| Year | Total TE Rec TDs | TEs with ≥1 TD | TEs with 2+ | TEs with 5+ | TEs with 10+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 230 | 78 | 50 | 15 | 2 |
| 2021 | 205 | 71 | 46 | 11 | 0 |
| 2022 | 198 | 73 | 50 | 10 | 2 |
| 2023 | 174 | 69 | 41 | 11 | 1 |
| 2024 | 178 | 65 | 40 | 12 | 1 |
| 2025 | 231 | 76 | 49 | 18 | 2 |
From 2024 → 2025:
- Total TE Receiving TDs: 178 → 231; +53 (+29.8%)
- TEs with ≥1 TD: 65 → 76; +11 (+16.9%)
- TEs with 2+ TDs: 40 → 49; +9 (+22.5%)
- TEs with 5+ TDs: 12 → 18; +6 (+50.0%)
- TEs with 10+ TDs: 1 → 2; +1 (+100.0%)
| Year | RZ Targets | RZ Rec | Rec TD | TDs/RZ Target | TEs w/ RZ Target | TEs w/ RZ TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 567 | 348 | 185 | 32.6% | 98 | 72 |
| 2021 | 584 | 344 | 165 | 28.3% | 94 | 66 |
| 2022 | 527 | 307 | 149 | 28.3% | 93 | 66 |
| 2023 | 506 | 312 | 138 | 27.3% | 95 | 64 |
| 2024 | 529 | 326 | 140 | 26.5% | 96 | 59 |
| 2025 | 609 | 388 | 185 | 30.4% | 98 | 70 |
From 2024 → 2025:
- Red-Zone Targets: 529 → 609; +80 (+15.1%)
- Red-Zone Receptions: 326 → 388; +62 (+19.0%)
- TE Receiving TDs in RZ: 140 → 185; +45 (+32.1%)
- TDs per RZ Target: 26.5% → 30.4%; (+3.9%)
- TEs with a RZ Target: 96 → 98; +2 (+2.1%)
- TEs with a RZ TD: 59 → 70; +11 (+18.6%)
Props & Anytime Touchdowns
The best thing about TEs is that they're usually undervalued. Outside of the top guys at the position, the Bowers/Kittles/McBrides of the world, you can usually find great value on their props and anytime touchdown bets.
Targeting teams with high TE usage and a talented back up is always fun, but some of these starters have great prices.
Looking ahead to Week 1, you can get all three of the Rams' TEs for at least (+350), if not better. George Kittle's sitting at (+210) in that same game, while his backup Jake Tonges sits at the exact same price.
Hunter Henry lead the Patriots in receiving touchdowns last season (8) and he's currently (+330) to score. Mark Andrews is top (TE) dog in Baltimore once again and he's sitting at (+225) to score against the Colts.
This is where we find the value, this is where we might have an edge before bookmakers can adjust and this where I had a ton of success last year. Look at coverage matchups, look at offensive sets and let's find some value in the big boys.
Early Week 1 Anytime Touchdowns
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