NFL Betting Tips for Player Props: Defensive Schemes, Coverages & How to Use it to Your Advantage
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Wed Aug 26, 2026, 4:28 pm ET
Read Time: 10 minutes
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The NFL Season is just over two weeks away and with a brand new season comes a brand new opportunity to make some money and win some bets in the NFL.
The NFL is by far the sharpest of all the major sports leagues and the most bet on. That means we've got to get creative, it means we need to dig deep into the stats and it means we need to find an edge that helps us beat the house.
Today we're going to dig into the defensive side of football, we're going to talk coverages, defensive schemes and how we can use them in our every day handicapping.
It's changed how I approach each week in the NFL and understanding how the defense operates can help us find the spots to take advantage of.
Let's jump straight into it.
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Vocabulary
- Personnel — Combination of players on the field. Corresponds to number of defensive backs, defensive lineman and linebackers on the field. (Ex. Nickel – 5 DB)
- Front — Number of DL/LB
- Box — The area surrounding the line of scrimmage consisting of OL/TE and DL/LB
- Coverage — How the defense is going to cover the field and defend opposing receivers
- Shell — Pre-snap structure of the safeties (Ex: 2-Hi)
- Pressure — Amount of players the defense is sending at the quarterback
Defensive Personnel/Fronts
Everyone knows the basic defensive personnel sets/fronts. You've got your basic 4-3, 3-4, 5-2, Nickel and Dime packages. What's that mean?
The first number corresponds to the number of DL, the second is the number of LB and then you can fill the rest of the defense in with DBs. Therefore a 4-3 personnel set has 4 DL, 3 LB and 4 DBs; a 5-2 would have 5 DL, 2 LB and 4 DBs.
This changes when you get into both Nickel and Dime packages, both of those refer to the number of defensive backs. Nickel packages will have the extra DB in the slot, while Dime packages will bring on two extra DBs.
Usually it's one (or two) of the LBs that comes off the field in these sets and that's because the modern NFL offense is incredibly pass heavy. The Nickel package is by far the most used in today's NFL and it's why that slot DB position has become so important.
Coverages
In the world of coverages, we've got two overarching groups and thats where I'd focus a majority of my time. We'll talk about the specific coverages in each category, but just knowing whether a team plays more man coverage or zone coverage can completely change how you look at any one prop.
Within these coverages, you've got different coverage shells. Shells describes the type of safety alignment you'll see behind the defense. This is where we'll see teams try to disguise their defense by lining up in one shell, but breaking off into others.
Now why's this important? In a league that is passing more than ever and a league that continues to attack through the air; coverages can give us a deeper look into an individual player's performance or potential in any given week.
It also gives us insights into how a coach might be approaching a particular matchup and how it'll affect his play-calling. These things effect target share, air yard share, snap count and just volume stats in general.
Certain QBs might be better against man coverage versus zone. Some do a lot better against Cover-1 shells and some struggle against Cover-2 because of the extra help over the top.
Lastly, the actual pass catchers are effected the most. Some receivers are great at finding the gaps in coverages and those guys thrive against zone schemes. Speedy WRs and hard to tackle TEs are usually a good answer against man coverage but in today's NFL matchups matter so much.
Teams with more talent, more speed and more strength can do more to disguise their looks. They can do more to counter the offense and it's why despite the coverages they run; some defenses are just solid in every way.
Man Coverage
Now let's talk about what teams ran a lot of man last year, what players thrived against this coverage and how I'm planning to target it this year. In today's NFL, all teams run a majority of zone coverage but comparing which teams run the highest rate of man coverage can be incredibly useful.
Most of the time, teams that use a high rate of man coverage need a good pass rush and that's what makes running man coverage so much harder. Covering wideouts in the NFL today is tough and if you give them too much time; it's pretty much impossible.
Last year some of the top defenses in the league ran a ton of man and some of the worst did too; they just did it poorly.
Outside of the pass rush, good man defenses usually need at least one elite CB. You need to be able to cover the opposing teams top wideout and that applies even more so in today's NFL. Speed, athleticism and strength are important all over the field; but if you can't keep up with these receivers, there's no point in suiting up.
If you can't tackle these receivers, hit the showers. If you can't press them at the line, you've already lost. When you think of the best man heavy defense, there's always a shut down corner to go alongside it; à la Patrick Surtain II for the Broncos.
High Man Coverage Usage (2025)
- Cleveland Browns
- Detroit Lions
- Denver Broncos
- New York Giants
- Pittsburgh Steelers
Love it — (Yards/Reception Rate/QB Rating)
- Puka Nacua — (393/81%/147.0)
- Tee Higgins — (301/58%/125.1)
- Jaxson Smithj-Njigba — (428/81%/144.9)
- George Pickens — (510/74%/141.9)
- Zay Flowers — (436/65%/104.0)
Hate it
- Emeka Egbuka — (105/26%/40.2)
- Justin Jefferson — (178/43%/28.9)
- Wan'Dale Robinson — (193/53%/95.6)
- Teairoa McMillan — (234/43%/60.9)
- Ja'Marr Chase — (180/54%/72.6)
Season Long Future Prop: Tee Higgins 1000+ Regular Season Receiving Yards (+135)
Just looking at the stats and this one jumps right off the page. Tee Higgins was one of the leagues best receivers against man coverage last year and at the same time, it's something we saw Ja'Marr Chase 'struggle' with. Chase struggling is all relative, but the target share speaks for itself.
Higgins lead the Bengals in target rate against man coverage, recording a 30.8% target share, 301 receiving yards, 6 touchdowns and a QB rating of 125.1 when being targeted.
Tee had an average depth of target of 14.7 yards, he averaged 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR) and finished as the league's third highest graded receiver against man; per Pro Football Focus.
Higgins has two 1,000-yard seasons in his career, both came when he managed to play 14+ games. He played in 15 games last year, finished with 846 yards, 11 touchdowns but played just six total games with Joe Burrow.
Head Coach Zac Taylor has made it abundantly clear, his offense is going to run through both Chase and Higgins. Over 52% of the team's target share went to two players last year and this year the Bengals' schedule includes a ton of man heavy defenses.
Cincinnati has six games next year against teams that ran man coverages at over a 30% rate last year. All six of those games are in this division. On average, the Bengals opponents next year run man at 26.3% rate; 4th most in the league.
This schedule screams Tee, we just need him and Joey B to stay on the field.
Zone Coverage
Zone coverages are by far the most frequently used across the NFL and the reason's simple, the modern NFL offense is just really good at punishing man coverage.
Man coverage is bad against good WRs, it's vulnerable against mobile QBs and it's just a lot easier to read; even more so pre-snap. Zone defenses are easier to disguise, they work better against mobile QBs and you're able to help against elite receivers on the other side.
Zone schemes limit explosive plays, limit opportunities over the top and (for the most part) keep offensive players in front of you. The modern NFL offense is sophisticated, pass heavy and dominated by various offensive sets. The best way to combat this is with zone coverages.
For an elite zone defense, you need a few things. First, a pass rush that can get to the QB; but can do it without the blitz.
Having enough defenders to drop back into their zones is imperative and if you're constantly blitzing 1-2 extra defenders; you're leaving gaps in the defense.
Speed at the safety position is important but maybe not as important as vision. The safety needs to know when to help, which side to shade and needs to recognize the routes before they develop. Lastly, you can't miss tackles.
Missed tackles are unforgivable for any defense, but in a zone it can mean an extra 8-12 yards after the catch. If each individual defender can't contain their zone, the entire defense breaks down.
Receivers we see thrive against zone defenses aren't usually the fastest ones, but they might be the smartest. Receivers that thrive against zone are receivers that can find gaps in the coverage, pick up a few yards after the catch and show patience in their routes.
When you see the list of guys that torched zone last year, it'll make more sense.
High Zone Coverage Usage (2025)
- Las Vegas Raiders
- New Orleans Saints
- Carolina Panthers
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Seattle Seahawks
Love it — (Yards/Reception Rate/QB Rating)
- CeeDee Lamb — (393/81%/147.0)
- Puka Nacua — (301/58%/125.1)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown — (428/81%/144.9)
- George Pickens — (510/74%/141.9)
- Chris Olave — (436/65%/104.0)
Hate it
- Jerry Jeudy — (231/44%/31.8)
- Nico Collins — (539/54%/85.4)
- Deebo Samuel — (363/75%/82.7)
- Elic Ayomanor — (293/44%/38.4)
- Jordan Addison — (216/48%/53.4)
Season Long Future Prop: Emeka Egbuka 8+ Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns (+150)
Emeka Egbuka is the perfect example of the type of receiver I love betting. Elite in his rookie year, now in line for a significant increase in targets and still playing with an elite arm throwing to him.
Egbuka was significantly better against zone heavy matchups last year, so much so that 5 of his 6 touchdowns came against zone coverages. Egbuka finished with 728 yards against zone last year, he had a 23.2% target rate and 65% reception rate.
He averaged 2.06 YPRR against zone, more than double the 0.91 mark he averaged against man.
Baker Mayfield comes into this year with just one year left on his deal. He's thrown for 26+ touchdowns in three straight seasons with the Buccaneers and he just lost his #1 target in Mike Evans. Evans played just 8 games last year but saw nearly 25% of the team's targets.
After Evans went down, Egbuka averaged 8.6 targets per game, he saw 26% of the team's targets and 22% of the team's redzone targets. Compare that to the eight games he played with Mike: 17% target share and 16% redzone target share.
Lastly, the Buccaneers play the sixth most zone-heavy schedule of any team this year. Tampa plays 8 games against teams that run zone >75% of the time and in total (per 2025) their opponents ran zone 71.9% of the time.
Big sophomore year loading for the former Buckeye, we just need him to stay healthy.
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