NFC Wildcard, Packers vs Cowboys, Best Bets: January 14th, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Jan 14, 2024, 10:22 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
The NFC Wildcard Round is here, and here we will discuss the battle in Jerry's World as the Green Bay Packers take on the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington.
Mike McCarthy faces his old squad after the Aaron Rodgers Era, as Jordan Love and Matt LeFleur take on the Cowboys in Texas.
Will Jordan Love keep his momentum going and win Green Bay a playoff game without Rodgers? Or will Dak lead the 'Boys to victory in their year of destiny?
Let's break this game down!
Packers vs Cowboys Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
- Date: Sunday, January 14th, 2024
- Kick Off: 4:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada. Get yourself a deposit bonus and the best lines in the market here!
Spread
- Packers +7 (+100)
- Cowboys -7 (-120)
Moneyline
- Packers +275
- Cowboys -350
Total
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
Can Love Lead the Packers to Victory?
Look, the Packers have won 7 of their L10 games, including three straight, but they are 4-5 on the road. This is not a good place to play against a Cowboys team that is 8-0 at Jerry's World this season. Yikes.
Plus, Dallas is the highest scoring offense in the league scoring 14 more points at home than on the road. Their defense also allows 4 less point at home than on the road. In Dallas, the Cowboys are tough to stop.
Green Bay is Top 10 in scoring defense and Top 12 in scoring defense. They score 6 more points on the road than they do at Lambeau, but they will need more than a few points to beat the Cowboys.
As a 7 point favorite, I could see a backdoor cover by Green Bay, but ultimately I like the Packers to win this game. I think part of me leans under on the total, but what's scary is how electric this Dallas offense can be.
They've score 30+ Points in 7/8 home games, winning by an average of three touchdowns. While Green Bay's secondary is alright, their rushing defense is bad, and Tony Pollard could have the game of the season. The Packers are 28th in rushing yards allowed and 22nd in yards per attempt allowed, giving up over 4.4.
Like I said, I think Dallas wins this game, but I would like -6.5 or even -6 to back the 'Boys.
Instead, I'll stick to player props in this game.
Free NFL Picks – Player Props, Packers vs Cowboys
Tony Pollard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts (-115) Bovada
Like I said, I lean with the Cowboys, and I do not like this Green Bay rushing defense, so give me Pollard to get at least 15 carries in this game. I don't even care how many yards he gets, but feed this man the rock.
Pollard averages 14.8 carries per game this season clearing in 8/17 games this season, but that number climbs to 16 at home and he's cleared in 5/8 at Jerry's World, including 3 straight, averaging 17.3 carries in his L3 at home.
Against the Packers last year, he ran 22 times for 115 yards on the ground, and like I said, this weekend could be a career game for Mr. Pollard.
I think the 'Boys jump out to an early lead and rely on the rush to eat up clock and put together long drives.
Give me 15 carries from Pollard in a home playoff game any day of the week.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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