Two New Coaches: Steelers vs. Falcons – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/13)
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Last Update: Wed Sep 09, 2026, 12:35 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-110
42
-105u
+160
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.5
100
41
-105o
-175
Welcome to my Steelers vs. Falcons predictions for Sunday, Sept. 13! We finally made it to another football season, and Week 1 gives us a fascinating interconference matchup in Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a revamped offense around Aaron Rodgers, while the Falcons arrive with Kevin Stefanski, a new offensive system, and Tua Tagovailoa starting at quarterback. Let's get into the best Steelers-Falcons betting picks for Week 1.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more for Week 1, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page. Now, let's dive into my Steelers vs. Falcons expert picks for Sunday.
Check out more NFL game previews for Week 1:
- Seahawks vs. Patriots Expert Picks & Predictions
- Rams vs. 49ers Expert Picks & Predictions
- Ravens vs. Colts Expert Picks & Predictions
Steelers vs. Falcons Predictions and Expert Picks for Sunday (Sept. 13)
The Steelers are favored by 3.5 points at home, and the low 42.5-point total tells you the market is expecting a physical, somewhat ugly opener. That is not an insult, either. Ugly football in September can be beautiful if you are holding the right under ticket.
There is plenty of talent on both sidelines, especially among the skill players. But there is also plenty of newness: new coaches, new play-callers, a quarterback situation in Atlanta that took until the final week of preseason to settle, and a Pittsburgh passing game that has not had much time together at full strength in camp.
Atlanta has elite pieces in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. The question is whether Tagovailoa can consistently get them the ball in a brand-new system under Stefanski and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. Pittsburgh has the quarterback experience edge, but Rodgers, DK Metcalf, and Michael Pittman Jr. are all working through a fresh offensive setup under Mike McCarthy.
If you're not sure where to bet this season, check out some of the best sportsbooks!
Steelers vs. Falcons Date, Time & Location
- Location: Acrisure Stadium; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM ET
Steelers vs. Falcons Odds: Spread, Moneyline & Total
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Atlanta Falcons +3.5 (-120)
- Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+160)
- Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 (even)
- Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline (-185)
- Over 42.5 (-105)
- Under 42.5 (-115)
Steelers vs. Falcons Preview: NFL Predictions for Week 1
Atlanta's quarterback decision is the most interesting part of this matchup. The Falcons named Tagovailoa their starter for Week 1 after a summer-long "competition" with Michael Penix Jr., and Penix will likely be inactive against Pittsburgh.
Tua has seen plenty of football. He has handled big moments, but he didn't look so great during a majority of August. And maybe that's piggybacking off a 2025 season where he threw a whopping 15 interceptions in just 14 games.
Robinson is the centerpiece. Lucky Rebel hanging his rushing prop at 75.5 yards tells you everything you need to know about Atlanta's plan. The Falcons should want to get their best player going early, control the game's rhythm, and avoid asking Tagovailoa to immediately carry the offense.
Pittsburgh has its own transition period to manage. Rodgers and McCarthy have an enormous amount of shared history, which certainly helps, but this is still a new Steelers offense. Metcalf and Pittman are talented veterans on the outside, and Warren plus Rico Dowdle give Pittsburgh a nice backfield pairing. Still, Metcalf and Pittman missed meaningful camp time with minor lingering injuries.
You can practice timing all summer. It is another thing entirely to execute it at full regular-season speed in Week 1, especially against a defense you have not seen when the games count.
Steelers vs. Falcons Expert Pick: Under 42.5 Points
Best Bet: Steelers vs. Falcons Under 42.5 −115 | Lucky Rebel
My best Steelers vs. Falcons pick is the under at 42.5 points.
The number is not enormous, so this is not a blind "Week 1 equals under" situation. There are too many good players here for that lazy analysis. Robinson, London, Pitts, Metcalf, Pittman, and Rodgers can all make a defense regret blinking.
But the ingredients for a slower, more methodical game are obvious.
Atlanta is breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback arrangement. The Falcons should lean heavily on Robinson, which keeps the clock running and lowers the number of possessions. If Tagovailoa is even a little bit out of sync with London and Pitts, a few promising drives can quickly turn into field-goal attempts or punts.
Pittsburgh has the more established quarterback, but Rodgers is also entering a new-ish system with McCarthy. Metcalf and Pittman missed camp time, and early-season timing issues are exactly the type of thing that can turn a potential explosive play into an incompletion, a short gain, or an ugly third-and-long.
I see both teams playing a bit conservatively early, leaning on their run games, and settling for more field goals than they would like. Give me the under.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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